Critical Consensus

In about three days, the first televised awards ceremony of the awards season will take place as the Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) hand out their picks for the best of the year. Click here to see their nominees. With that said, plenty of groups from around the country (and Canada) have already given us their favorites, which are listed below.

The list of critic groups include the National Board of Review (NBR), Alliance of Women Journalist (AWJ), African American Film Critics Association (AAFCA), National Society of Film Critics (NSFC), Online Film Critics (OFCS) as well as critic groups from the following regions: Los Angeles (LAFCA), New York (NYFCC), Boston (BSFC), Washington D.C (WAFCA), New York Online (NYFCO), Southeastern (SEFCA), Indiana (IFJA), San Francisco (SFFCC), Austin (AFCA), San Diego (SDFCS), Toronto (TFCA), Dallas-Forth Worth (DFWFCA), Las Vegas (LVFCS), Utah (UFCA), Detroit (DFCS), Houston (HFCS), Chicago (CFCA), Florida (FFCC), St. Louis (SLFC), Phoenix (PFCS), Oklahoma (OFCC), Kansas City (KCFCC), Central Ohio (COFCA), North Texas (NTFCA), and Vancouver (VFCC).

BEST PICTURE

• The Social Network - [25] NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, NYFCO, BSFC, IFJA, WAFCA, SFFCC, SEFCA, TFCA, AAFCA, DFWFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, HFCS, CFCA, FFCC, SLFC, OFCC, UFCA, KCFCC, NSFC, AWFJ, OFCS, VFCC
• Inception - [2] COFCA, NTFCA
• 127 Hours - [1] UFCA
• Black Swan - [1] AFCA
• The King's Speech - [1] PFCS
• Winter's Bone - [1] SDFCS

Notable exclusions: The Fighter, Toy Story 3, True Grit, The Town, The Kids Are All Right

BEST DIRECTOR

• David Fincher - [21] NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, NYFCO, BSFC, WAFCA, SFFCC, SEFCA, TFCA, DFWFCA, LVFCS, HFCS, CFCA, FFCC, SLFC, OFCC, UFCA, NSFC, AWFJ, OFCS, VFCC
• Christopher Nolan - [7] IFJA, AAFCA, UFCA, PFCS, KCFCC, COFCA, NTFCA
• Darren Aronofksy - [3] SFFCC, SDFCS, AFCA
• Olivier Assayas - [1] LAFCA
• Danny Boyle - [1] DFCS

Notable exclusions: Tom Hooper, David O. Russell, Joel and Ethan Coen

BEST ACTOR

• Colin Firth - [16] NYFCC, LAFCA, WAFCA, SFFCC, SEFCA, DFCS, CFCA, FFCC, SLFC, AFCA, PFCS, KCFCC, AWFJ, OFCS, NTFCA, VFCC
• Jesse Eisenberg - [6] NBR, BSFC, TFCA, HFCS, OFCC, NSFC
• James Franco - [6] NYFCO, IFJA, DFWFCA, LVFCS, UFCA, COFCA
• Mark Wahlberg - [1] AAFCA
• Colin Farrell - [1] SDFCS

Notable exclusions: Ryan Gosling, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall

BEST ACTRESS

• Natalie Portman - [18] NYFCO, BSFC, IFJA, SEFCA, DFWFCA, LVFCS, HFCS, CFCA, FFCC, SLFC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFCC, OFCS, COFCA, NTFCA
• Jennifer Lawrence - [5] WAFCA, TFCA, SDFCS, DFCS, VFCC
• Annette Bening - [2] NYFCC, AWFJ
• Halle Berry - [1] AAFCA
• Kim Hye-ja - [1] LAFCA
• Lesley Manville - [1] NBR
• Giovanna Mezzogiorno - [1] NSFC
• Michelle Williams - [1] SFFCC

Notable exclusions: Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Christian Bale - [21] NBR, NYFCO, BSFC, IFJA, WAFCA, DFWFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, HFCS, CFCA, FFCC, SLFC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFCC, AWFJ, OFCS, NTFCA, VFCC
• Geoffrey Rush - [3] SEFCA, NSFC, COFCA
• John Hawkes - [2] SFFCC, SDFCS
• Niels Arestrup - [1] LAFCA
• Michael Ealy - [1] AAFCA
• Armie Hammer - [1] TFCA
• Mark Ruffalo - [1] NYFCC

Notable exclusions: Andrew Garfield, Jeremy Renner

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Hailee Steinfeld - [11] IFJA, SEFCA, TFCA, HFCS, CFCA, AFCA, KCFCC, AWFJ, OFCS, COFCA, VFCC
• Melissa Leo - [8] NYFCC, NYFCO, WAFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, SLFC, PFCS, NTFCA
• Jacki Weaver - [4] NBR, LAFCA, SFFCC, UFCA
• Amy Adams - [2] LVFCS, DFCS
• Kimberly Elise - [1] AAFCA
• Mila Kunis - [1] OFCC
• Juliette Lewis - [1] BSFC
• Lesley Manville - [1] SDFCS
• Olivia Williams - [1] NSFC

Notable exclusions: Helena Bonham Carter, Marion Cotillard

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Inception - [8] WAFCA, CFCA, FFCC, OFCC, PFCS, KCFCC, OFCS, COFCA
• The King's Speech - [3] SFFCC, SEFCA, SLFC
• The Kids Are All Right - [2] NYFCC, AWFJ
• Black Swan - [1] AFCA
• Buried - [1] NBR
• Four Lions - [1] SDFCS

Notable exclusions: The Fighter, Please Give

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Social Network - [26] NBR, LAFCA, NYFCO, BSFC, IFJA, WAFCA, SFFCC, SEFCA, TFCA, SDFCS, DFWFCA, LVFCS, HFCS, CFCA, FFCC, SLFC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFCC, NSFC, AWFJ, OFCS, COFCA, VFCC
• Night Catches Us - [1] AAFCA

Notable exclusions: 127 Hours, True Grit, The Town, Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone

BEST ANIMATED FILM

• Toy Story 3 - [21] NBR, LAFCA, NYFCO, BSFC, WAFCA, SFFCC, SEFCA, SDFCS, DFWFCA, LVFCS, HFCS, CFCA, SLFC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFCC, AWFJ, OFCS, COFCA, NTFCA
• How to Train Your Dragon - [2] IFJA, TFCA
• The Illusionist - [1] NYFCC

Notable exclusion: Tangled

The critics were able to put focus on some names that most likely won't make the Oscar shortlist such as Olivia Williams, Olivier Assayas, Kim Hye-Ja, Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Kimberly Elise, etc. But what they also did was provide an overwhelming consensus in most of the categories.

From these results it looks like The Social Network, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, and Toy Story 3 should find themselves winning the Academy Awards. Likely, but one can never be sure. Just last year Sandra Bullock got exactly zero awards before winning at the BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG, and then ultimately the Oscar. There doesn't seem to be a surprise like that happening, but it's good to always remember the possibility.

Supporting Actress is the one category that seems to be somewhat competitive with Hailee Steinfeld, who had a lead role in her film, with a slight edge. Christopher Nolan also lead for his screenplay, but it's still not a sure-thing like Sorkin.