Every awards season has its own unique tone and this one was surprisingly... tame. Perhaps its the shorter and more condensed season giving people less time to marinate on things. Or perhaps it's the odd lock-step of acting wins which everyone seems to be fine with in their inevitable road to the Oscars. Or maybe it's because the top two films vying for the top prize are both pretty damn great with not much to negatively campaign about them. Or we're all just trying to get through an increasingly awful state of reality and staying (relatively) positive over things like the Oscars might just be a defense mechanism. Who knows? It's been nice. Onwards to my thoughts and predictions...
BEST PICTURE
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
The big shock here is the inclusion of
Joker and its leading nomination count. And yet it's made the most out of all nominees, people won't stop talking about, and it did win at the Venice Film Festival. The early story of the season is that this was going to be
Irishman vs.
Once Upon a Time, because legendary directors doing the kind of films the Academy loves seem to make sense. But
1917 is the war movie du jour with its impeccable technical wizadry and is peaking at the perfect time. Speaking of peaking,
Parasite is THE movie of the year and it's the one movie everyone (EVERYONE) seems to agree on. I hope the Academy makes history and picks it.
PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: It was always a longshot but
The Farewell is my favorite movie of the year and should've been here. It was
Knives Out that probably just missed though.
BEST DIRECTOR
- Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
- Todd Phillips, Joker
- Sam Mendes, 1917
- Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Okay, when I said this awards season has been relatively tame, I guess I was mostly talking about the general resigned mood at the end. But let's not forget, or gloss over, that yet again we have an all-male Director line-up when Greta Gerwig and Lulu Wang and so many other women did amazing work this year. I was also pissed that DGA-nominated Taika Waititi was pushed aside for Phillips. Anyways, this is Mendes vs. Joon Ho. Would be a good choice regardless.
PREDICTION: Sam Mendes
ALTERNATE: Bong Joon Ho
FINAL WORD: I said this last year and I'll say it again this year... maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? It's getting old.
BEST ACTRESS
- Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
- Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
- Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
- Charlize Theron, Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger, Judy
When Zellweger won last night at the Spirit Awards, I was thinking how insane it is that any one actor (let alone four this year) would practically sweep ALL the awards in a single year. That should NOT be possible with the sheer amount of amazing talent and performances out there. And I LIKE Zellweger's Judy and think she'd make a great Oscar winner. But to get EVERY award when Ronan is doing yet-again stupendous things or when Lupita Nyong'o or Elisabeth Moss or Alfre Woodard or Awkwafina weren't even nominated. It's ridiculous.
PREDICTION: Renee Zellweger
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan
FINAL WORD: I'm still shocked/not shocked about Nyong'o's snub. Do better.
BEST ACTOR
- Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver, Marriage Story
- Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
- Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Phoenix is the clear frontrunner here and as much as I don't like his film, I'm not too disturbed by him winning his 1st Oscar. I can pretend it's for
Her or
The Master. In any other year, especially if he hadn't won already, DiCaprio would likely be cleaning up. First nominations for Banderas and Pryce are good things! That said, I'm sad Taron Egerton and Eddie Murphy couldn't break through. Egerton's "snub" particularly hurts especially after Rami Malek actually won an Oscar the previous year for a worse version of similar films and performances.
PREDICTION: Joaquin Phoenix
ALTERNATE: Adam Driver
FINAL WORD: I'm already thinking about next year. I hope Anthony Ramos for
In the Heights makes it in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
- Laura Dern, Marriage Story
- Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
- Florence Pugh, Little Women
- Margot Robbie, Bombshell
This category is so dumb. First of all Jennifer Lopez and Zhao Shuzhen should've been no-brainers here and yet. Thankfully Lopez kicked ass at the Super Bowl last weeked and Shuzhen kicked ass at the Spirit Awards last night. Dern is the overwhelming favorite here and I love her and it's great that she'll finally have an Oscar, but this role isn't really "sweeping all awards" worthy. The only one here (okay, I haven't seen Richard Jewell) that feels like a worthy nomination/win is the breakout Pugh.
PREDICTION: Laura Dern
ALTERNATE: Scarlett Johansson
FINAL WORD: Forgot to mention, it's great that Johansson finally got her first (and second) Oscar nomination this year. She deserves both of them. But the optics (with Erivo as a slave as the only POC nomination) aren't great.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
- Al Pacino, The Irishman
- Joe Pesci, The Irishman
- Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
These were pretty much the five that everyone predicted throughout the season with Tracy Letts and Willem Dafoe probably in the long list. The big hope for a Parasite acting nomination was here for Sang Kang Ho, but the category is just full of Oscar winners. The lone nominee who hasn't won an Oscar acting award is Brad Pitt (but he has won non-acting ones) and he's the one to beat. It's pretty much a done deal actually.
PREDICTION: Brad Pitt
ALTERNATE: Brad Pitt.... seriously.
FINAL WORD: Do we buy that Brad's role is actually supporting? I don't.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- The Two Popes
It's a few Best Picture nominees plus
The Two Popes. Truly wish they found room for
Hustlers or
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Or to be honest,
Avengers Endgame if they had to give it to a comic book movie. In any case, this is Waititi's award to lose (he won WGA), but Gerwig could be a formidable alternate. If either won, I'd be happy.
PREDICTION: Jojo Rabbit
ALTERNATE: Little Women
FINAL WORD: Can we just have a tie? Think of their joint speech!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Knives Out
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
This is a very interesting race. Everyone thought Tarantino would walk away with this award all season and he did win Critics Choice/Golden Globe. But Baumbach has been the indie darling and recently won the Spirit Awards and Joon Ho surprisingly came out on top at the WGA. And everyone seems to love
Knives Out. I AM shocked
1917 made it in at least over
The Farewell, Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, etc.
PREDICTION: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE: Marriage Story
FINAL WORD: I'm not predicting
Parasite, but if it wins here (and it has a strong chance), then Best Picture might be in the bag as well.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
- Corpus Christi
- Honeyland
- Les Miserables
- Pain and Glory
- Parasite
As I previously mention,
Parasite has been the movie of the year. It's going to win here. There's no doubt. I think there'll be riots if it doesn't win.
Honeyland is apparently the first documentary to be nominated here?
PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: If it doesn't win, the world will end
FINAL WORD: France didn't pick
Portrait of a Lady on a Fire. And now we have to wait forever (next week) to see it. GO PARASITE!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
- I Lost My Body
- Klaus
- Missing Link
- Toy Story 4
What a weird year! No room for the highest-grossing animated film of all time (
Frozen 2)? Or critically-acclaimed
Weathering with You? Anyways, other than
The Hidden World, the other films have won various awards this season keeping this awards in flux. Would Disney power Toy Story 4 to a win? Would they finally give Laika an awards (for
Missing Link)? How about Netflix's two audacious offerings? We'll see!
PREDICTION: Toy Story 4
ALTERNATE: Missing Link
FINAL WORD: My sentimental favorite is
How to Train Your Dragon. It hasn't won one! And as much as I'd love Laika to win one as a studio,
Missing Link has been my least favorite of their output.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- The Irishman
- Joker
- The Lighthouse
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Lots of beautifully-made films here. I think ASC winner Roger Deakins will get his 2nd Oscar this year especially with so many people in love with 1917's technical prowess. The nod with
The Lighthouse is inspired.
PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: The Irishman
FINAL WORD: Parasite, Ad Astra, and
Ford v. Ferrari were likely in their longlist.
BEST FILM EDITING
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Parasite
Parasite's inclusion here signals strong support for the film and with its ACE Eddies win, it's the unlikely frontrunner especially with
1917 not nominated here.
PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: Joker
FINAL WORD: Remember when
Bohemian Rhapsody won last year. The darkest timeline.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
Apparently, the Academy only saw like 12 films this year. ANYWAYS, the ADG Awards went to
Parasite and
Once Upon a Time. And it's going to be either one of those two and I'm leaning towards the latter because well... Old Hollywood and all.
PREDICTION: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE: Parasite
FINAL WORD: But that
Parasite house though.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
I screamed on Oscar nomination morning when
Dolemite is My Name was left out. I was also holding out hope for
Downton Abbey here or more unlikely,
Avengers Endgame. And to be honest, Hustlers should've been here for Jennifer Lopez's fur alone. As for the winner, who knows? CDG gave it to two films not nominated and
Jojo Rabbit while the BAFTAs went with
Little Women. And still the other films might be more to Hollywood's tastes. So?
PREDICTION: Jojo Rabbit
ALTERNATE: Little Women
FINAL WORD: No, but really what disrespect to Ruth E. Carter.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Avengers Endgame
- The Irishman
- 1917
- The Lion King
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I can't believe the de-aging of
The Irishman made it here because it was SO DAMN DISTRACTING. I'm also shocked that
1917 made it in, because its effects actually weren't too showy? I do wish
Avengers get this. How can you not give the highest grossing film of all time any Oscars?
PREDICTION: Avengers Endgame
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: Imagine if
Cats had been nominated? The fact that it was even included in the long list was HILARIOUS and ridiculous.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
- Bombshell
- Joker
- Judy
- Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
- 1917
It's the first year that this category has 5 nominees. It was always weird to me this only had 3. EVERY film has makeup and hair. Anyways, it's probably between
Bombshell or
Judy because the transformations are OBVIOUS. I'm pissed that
Rocketman wasn't included here. I would've picked it for the win.
PREDICTION: Judy
ALTERNATE: Bombshell
FINAL WORD: Also pissed that
Dolemite is My Name and
Little Women weren't included here. Do better.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- American Factory
- The Cave
- The Edge of Democracy
- For Sama
- Honeyland
This is a good list, but my two favorite documentaries of the year--
Maiden and
Apollo 11--weren't included and I'm sad. That said, I've seen 3 of these and they ranged from good to excellent (my favorite is probably the deeply personal
For Sama).
American Factory has the Netflix/Obama factor though that might give it the edge.
PREDICTION: American Factory
ALTERNATE: Honeyland
FINAL WORD: But seriously, check out
Maiden. It felt like a movie thriller.
BEST SOUND EDITING
- Ford v Ferrari
- Joker
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Other than
Joker, these nominations makes sense. You'd think it'd be between
1917 and
Ford v Ferrari and same goes to the Sound Mixing award.
PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: Ford v Ferrari
BEST SOUND MIXING
- Ad Astra
- Ford v Ferrari
- Joker
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This is
Ad Astra's sole nod. Weird. Anyways, see above.
PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: Ford v Ferrari
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Joker's Hildur Guรฐnadรณttir is the first woman to be nominated in this category and she's the front runner! Again, I'm not a fan of the film, but I wouldn't be sad about this win. I personally would given it to either
Little Women's Alexandre Desplat or
1917's Thomas Newman (who's the Susan Lucci of this category).
PREDICTION: Joker
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: John Williams is a true legend, but... stop.
Star Wars doesn't have to be nominated every single time.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- "I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4
- "I’m Gonna Love Me Again," Rocketman
- "I’m Standing With You," Breakthrough
- "Into the Unknown," Frozen 2
- "Stand Up," Harriet
The wrong song from
Frozen 2 was nominated. No "Glasgow" from
Wild Rose. No surprise nomination for
Parasite's original song. They passed over the fun "Catchy Song" from
Lego Movie 2 or the original song from
Aladdin. But sure, let's nominate some dirge from Diane Warren.
PREDICTION: I'm Gonna Love Me Again
ALTERNATE: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away
FINAL WORD: I'm just going to listen to "Show Yourself" a bunch of times.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
- Brotherhood
- Nefta Football Club
- The Neighbors’ Window
- Saria
- A Sister
I try to watch this every year, but I skipped last year and didn't find the time this year. I hate the shortened Oscar season.
PREDICTION: Saria
ALTERNATE: The Neighbors' Window
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
- Dcera
- Hair Love
- Kitbull
- Memorable
- Sister
I've only seen
Hair Love and it's wonderful.
PREDICTION: Hair Love
ALTERNATE: Sister
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
- In the Absence
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
- Life Overtakes Me
- St. Louis Superman
- Walk Run Cha-Cha
I've only seen
Life Overtakes Me. It's okay, but I think could've been much better. So I have no idea what to say
PREDICTION: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
ALTERNATE: In the Absence
So I predicted
Parasite to get 3 Oscars including Best Picture while 1917 walks home with the most at 4 wins including Best Director. I actually think that might be too small for 1917, but I'm all about predicting spread-the-wealth sort of thing. I do hope
Parasite gets those 3 wins (and maybe more)?
Click
here for my picks on who should win.
