Saturday, March 3, 2018

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions


A little bit more than 24 hours from now, we'll know all the winners as well as the also-rans of the 90th Academy Awards. On the one hand, the awards season was and still is unpredictable. Does anyone really know what's winning Best Picture or which film will get the most wins? On the other hand, those acting races were way more competitive early on before the usual precursors rubber-stamped all the winners. The lesson though of last year's ceremony though is... unexpected things can still happen. Will it this year? Who knows?

BEST PICTURE
  • Call Me by Your Name (4 nominations)
  • Darkest Hour (6 nominations)
  • Dunkirk (8 nominations)
  • Get Out (4 nominations)
  • Lady Bird (5 nominations)
  • Phantom Thread (6 nominations)
  • The Post (2 nominations)
  • The Shape of Water (13 nominations)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7 nominations)

I think some people expected The Florida Project to sneak in here, but the rest had been in the conversation early enough with momentum ebbing and flowing from one film to the next. I think the three films vying for the win are Three Billboards (lots of precursor love), The Shape of Water (top nominee + slam dunk directing win), and Get Out (preferential ballot favorite + film of the year). Dunkirk is probably the dark horse and could've been the favorite a few years ago (WWII film with lots of technical wizardry).

PREDICTION: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
ALTERNATE: Get Out
FINAL WORD: Can the beautifully gay indie film pull off the shocking upset again please?

BEST DIRECTOR
  • Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
  • Jordan Peele, Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
  • Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
  • Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Honestly, I love this shortlist. I probably would've replaced Anderson with Luca Guadagnino or Sean Baker, but really no actual complaints here. I mean look at these names! Just one of Del Toro, Peele, or Gerwig would've been thrilling enough, but all three? Plus this is Nolan's FIRST Oscar nomination for directing. While I think Peele should win this hands down, there's no bad choices here and the likely winner Del Toro would certainly be a wonderful champ.

PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro
ALTERNATE: Jordan Peele
FINAL WORD: In its 90 years, Gerwig is only the 5th woman and Peele is only the 5th black director to be nominated. Damn.

BEST ACTRESS
  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

Ronan and Hawkins picking up critical awards, Robbie getting her breakthrough moment, and Streep doing her usual best work... plus Emma Stone one-upping her Oscar winning performance last year, Jessica Chastain challenging herself, Daniela Vega being a revelation. Could've been a great race. I don't begrudge McDormand. She's awesome and I'll be happy for her to pick up her 2nd Oscars tomorrow, but what could've been.

PREDICTION: Frances McDorman
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan
FINAL WORD: I actually love all of these performances but man Ronan should've been the frontrunner from the beginning.

BEST ACTOR
  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I'm most excited for Kaluuya's nomination here. It helps that his film is a cultural phenomenon, but I think a lot of people miss the brilliance in his subtle performance. Also thrilled for Chalamet who has carried the "breakthrough revelation" label since the film premiered more than a year ago in Sundance. One of those two SHOULD be winning, but it'll go to Oldman because he plays Winston Churchill. He was always the favorite, sight unseen, and well yeah.

PREDICTION: Gary Oldman
ALTERNATE: Daniel Day-Lewis
FINAL WORD: Chalamet would be a lot of people's alternate, but Oscars love Day-Lewis and for his "final film"? Weirder things.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

From the very beginning this was thought to be a two-woman race between Metcalf and Janney, two very well-loved veterans. In fact Metcalf did get some critical love early on, but Janney's flashier role and bigger personality made her dominant through awards season and her first Oscar will be the bow on top. Raise a glass through to some also-rans which had some buzz like Tiffany Haddish, Holly Hunter, and Hong Chau.

PREDICTION: Allison Janney
ALTERNATE: Laurie Metcalf
FINAL WORD: The Academy doesn't do ties, but think about it just this once maybe?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Let's get the Kevin Spacey pink elephant out of the way. Plummer's nomination is remarkable. He filmed his scenes in NOVEMBER. Is this the Academy praising his work or sticking it to a disgraced Spacey or them giving a nod to the changing landscape. Who can say? Anyways, Three Billboards doubling up here is indicative of the movie's strength and Rockwell will take that to victory. Dafoe had some buzz early on, but as with all the other acting categories, this one is won and done.

PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell
ALTERNATE: Willem Dafoe
FINAL WORD: They couldn't have doubled up with Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer on Call Me By Your Name instead? Stuhlbarg was robbed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
  • Call Me by Your Name
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Logan
  • Molly’s Game
  • Mudbound

With the biggest films in the other screenplay category, this is the best shot for Call Me By Your Name to not walk home empty-handed tomorrow and the best shot for James Ivory to pick up his first Oscar win. He's the favorite, but some people seem weirdly put off by the film (they are dumb). I guess the question is, even if they are, which film would take its place? No one can seem to agree to that, so... win?

PREDICTION: Call Me By Your Name
ALTERNATE: Molly's Game
FINAL WORD: I might riot if James Ivory doesn't win. We all should.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards

With 4 Best Pictures in the mix, this is probably the most competitive category of the night. You can make a case for any one of them to win this. As an aside, I'm happy that indie hit The Big Sick got recognized here. General consensus seems to have it as a two-film race between Get Out and Three Billboards and I do hope it goes to the first since it's likely will be its one award.

PREDICTION: Three Billboards
ALTERNATE: Get Out
FINAL WORD: I'm predicting to protect my disappointment, but also I want to put it out in the world that Lady Bird winning would be freaking awesome.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

I've only seen two of them, A Fantastic Woman (amazing) and On Body and Soul (not bad at all). And have heard good stuff about the others. Shortlisted films that didn't make the cut that some people really liked included The Wound, Felicite and In the Fade which people thought could've been favored to win here. And then there's France's BPM being shocking short list omission. The Academy should feel shameful regarding that.

PREDICTION: A Fantastic Woman
ALTERNATE: The Square
FINAL WORD: I actually have no idea who's favored to win here, but I do know you should try to watch all of these.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand
  • Loving Vincent

As someone who actually liked The Boss Baby, this category still feels awfully thin this year, doesn't it? Last year a Finding Nemo sequel which I really liked didn't get nominated and I was OKAY because the category was stacked. Anyways, Pixar's wonderful Coco is the odds-on favorite this year and is probably the lockiest win tomorrow night apart from the acting awards.

PREDICTION: Coco
ALTERNATE: The Breadwinner
FINAL WORD: Coco should win for its gorgeous rendering of the Land of the Dead alone and making me ugly cry a lot.

BEST FILM EDITING
  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk
  • I, Tonya
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards

Convention says a Best Picture film wins this and with Dunkirk being the most OBVIOUSLY edited, it's the frontrunner. And yet Baby Driver could take some of these technical awards in a surprise.

PREDICTION:
Dunkirk
ALTERNATE: Baby Driver
FINAL WORD: Three Billboards getting in here instead of Get Out is a travesty.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water

If the want to go with MOST then Beauty and the Beast could challenge here. If they want to go with PERIOD then Dunkirk or Darkest Hour. If they want to go with CREATIVE, perhaps Blade Runner. But I think Shape of Water has a bit of all of those so I think it'll win.

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Call Me By Your Name's Italian villa with its books and various fruits was perfection.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water

This is the technical category everyone is excited about. And why not? We have Mudbound's Rachel Morrison as the FIRST EVER woman to ever be nominated in this category. And this year could actually be it for 14-time nominated Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) to get his first Oscar! Dunkirk and Darkest Hour with their WWII epicness will challenge, but #Oscar4Deakins.

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Seriously, give it to Deakins already.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
  • "Mighty River," Mudbound
  • "Mystery of Love," Call Me by Your Name
  • "Remember Me," Coco
  • "Stand Up for Something," Marshall
  • "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

Early last year I thought Celine Dion's Beauty & the Beast song had this in the bag. Thankfully the year brought us some more great choices and this shortlist is stacked with not only quality, but talent. Last year's champs Pasek and Paul are the front-runners with "This is Me," their underdog anthem that's a big hit with film and music audiences. And as much as I love that song, I'm hoping "Mystery of Love" or "Remember Me" pull off the upset. Actually, I'm good with a three-way tie.

PREDICTION: "This Is Me"
ALTERNATE: "Remember Me"
FINAL WORD: I cannot wait for all of these performances!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
  • Dunkirk
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Three Billboards

John Williams could get his 6th win for Star Wars, but I think it's a two-man race between Alexandre Desplat's delicate work on The Shape of Water and Hans Zimmer's bombastic work on Dunkirk. If Three Billboards win here, it'll probably take Best Picture.

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Congrats on Johnny Greenwood's first nomination for Phantom Thread.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Kong: Skull Island
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • War for the Planet of the Apes

I'd probably replace either Guardians or Kong for Thor: Ragnarok and I was a bit surprised by the exclusions of The Shape of Water and Dunkirk, but overall a nice list. It's also hard to predict since "most" in this case is pretty much all of them plus all of them got good reviews.

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
ALTERNATE: War for the Planet of the Apes
FINAL WORD: They haven't felt the need to reward Apes franchise yet (a bummer). Could this be the year?

BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING
  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

These are two different categories, but since they have the same nominees, I thought I'd put them together. Plus I think this year the same film is going to win them both. I have no idea what it'll be. Dunkirk is the obvious choice, but I think Baby Driver and Blade Runner are right there.

PREDICTION (for both): Dunkirk
ALTERNATE (for both): Baby Driver
FINAL WORD: One of these days I'll remember the difference.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Darkest Hour
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water
  • Victoria & Abdul

Frankly I was more partial to the pitch perfect period stylings of Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name not to mention the wonderfully flash and trashy costumes in I, Tonya, but alas. This is an easy win for Phantom Thread, right?

PREDICTION: Phantom Thread
ALTERNATE: Beauty and the Beast
FINAL WORD: Is Doug Jones' creature a costume? If so, maybe they should win for dat ass alone.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
  • Darkest Hour
  • Victoria & Abdul
  • Wonder

These were all a bit expected once the finalists were named, but I, Tonya really should've been here. A moment of silence for the makeup artist for Kevin Spacey on All the Money in the World.

PREDICTION: Darkest Hour
ALTERNATE: Victoria & Abdul
FINAL WORD: Can't wait to never see Oldman as Churchill ever again.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
  • Abacus Small Enough to Jail
  • Faces Places
  • Icarus
  • Last Men in Aleppo
  • Strong Island

Three of these films are available on Netflix so go binge them now! That's how I saw Icarus and Strong Island, both very good, though I really liked Icarus. Might see Last Men in Aleppo tomorrow. Agnes Varda could win for Faces Places. Who do you got?

PREDICTION: Faces Places
ALTERNATE: Icarus
FINAL WORD: Varda's cardboard cutout was the awards seasons VIP.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
  • Edith+Eddie
  • Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • Heroin(e)
  • Knife Skills
  • Traffic Stop

Haven't seen any of these, but Heroin(e) is on Netflix so I might before the ceremony. Not sure if any of the others are readily available. (ETA: Knife Skills and Heaven is a Traffic Jam are on YouTube).

PREDICTION: Traffic Stop
ALTERNATE: Heroin(e)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
  • Dear Basketball
  • Garden Party
  • Lou
  • Negative Space
  • Revolting Rhymes

Anyone know if any of these are available to stream? (ETA: Garden Party is online, Lou is on YouTube, Revolting Rhymes is on Netflix). Anyways, I've heard people like Revolting Rhymes. Dear Basketball has big names attached to it which usually means the win. I certainly don't know.

PREDICTION: Dear Basketball
ALTERNATE: Revolting Rhymes

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
  • DeKalb Elementary
  • The Eleven O’Clock
  • My Nephew Emmett
  • The Silent Child
  • Watu Wote/All of Us

I just saw these today and I'm happy to report there's not a dud among them. It makes it that more difficult to pick a winner though DeKalb Elementary might have a leg up for being (unfortunately) timely. Watu Wote is probably the most emotional one. And there's The Eleven O'Clock which is the one humorous one amongst some heavy drama.

PREDICTION: DeKalb Elementary
ALTERNATE: Watu Wote/All of Us

And so now we wait until tomorrow. My picks for who should win is here.

Monday, February 26, 2018

My Personal Oscar Ballot


This long awards season ends this coming Sunday with the 90th Academy Awards. After a prolonged period between nominations and ceremony, the deadline for voters to send in their final ballots is tomorrow. In that spirit, below would be my ballot if I was one of the lucky Oscar voters.

Note: For Best Picture, Academy voters are asked to rank their choices. For the other categories, they are only asked to pick their choice of winner, which is exactly what I've done.

Best Picture
1 - Lady Bird
2 - Get Out
3 - Call Me By Your Name
4 - Dunkirk
5 - Shape of Water
6 - Phantom Thread
7 - The Post
8 - Three Billboards
9 - Darkest Hour

Best Director: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Lead Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Best Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor: Willen Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Original Screenplay: Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: "Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
Best Editing: Baby Driver
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hair: Wonder
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: War of the Planet of the Apes
Best Live Action Short: Dekalb Elementary
Best Animated Short: Negative Space
Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e)

So looks like Lady Bird would be my biggest winner with 4 awards including Picture and Actress. Call Me By Your Name would be next with 3 awards including Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Get Out gets just 1 win for me, but it's a big one with Best Director. For the other awards, I spread the love a bit and really made to to give my theoretical vote to a film that I truly think deserve it. For the shorts, I voted based on summary.

Sunday, February 25, 2018

Best Picture Tweets

One week away until the Oscars. So I thought I'd look back to see what my first impressions were of the Best Picture nominess this year via my twitter reactions after seeing the films. It's clear which films I immediately loved and which films I didn't have much to say about. So in the order of when I saw the movies/tweeted about them...








The Academy Awards are next week on ABC.

Saturday, January 6, 2018

Golden Globes: Thoughts, Predictions, and Hopes


Is it just me or are the Golden Globes super early this year? Then again last year's took place just a day later so maybe I'm just imagining things. Anyways, are y'all ready for the first major televised awards this season? I'M NOT but no one thinks about my schedule. At they very least I have seen most of the nominated films give or take a Molly's Game or a Phantom Thread. Anyways onwards...

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All The Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

A bit disappointing not to see Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele or Luca Guadagnino in the mix here. Hoping the DGA and Oscar think through this list a bit more.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Alternate: Ridley Scott
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (or the aforementioned three snubs)

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Two films that probably expected a nomination were Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread. Frankly I wish The Florida Project made it in, but this is a damn solid list.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Best Motion Picture, Comedy/Musical
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

The big miss here would be The Big Sick which seemed like a lock a few months ago, but flashier, starrier films knocked it down a peg or two.  At least no embarrassing nominations here.

Will Win: Lady Bird
Alternate: Get Out
Should Win: Lady Bird

Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

While they won't win I actually think Streep and Williams' nominations are inspired. They both can feel default-y some years, but they pulled it out this year.

Will Win: Sally Hawkins
Alternate: Frances McDormand
Should Win: Sally Hawkins

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

The HFPA really love Mirren don't they? Regina Hall in Girls' Trip or even Emma Watson in Beauty & the Beast would've probably made more sense. Love that Stone wasn't forgotten this season though.

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Alternate: Margot Robbie
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Best Actor, Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I'm rooting so hard for Chalamet to breakthrough especially against such BIG NAMES. His closest competition is the only other non-winner and probably front-runner.

Will Win: Gary Oldman
Alternate: Timothée Chalamet
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Kumail Nanjiani should've been nominated, but I don't really mind this list. In fact, it's pretty solid. Though Chris Hemsworth in Thor: Ragnarok was also robbed.

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Alternate: Hugh Jackman
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Gotta love the diversity here and especially Chau and Blige's award season's constancy. That said it's all about Janney vs. Metcalf.

Will Win: Allison Janney
Alternate: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Honestly I'd be pleased with a tie.

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Plummer's nomination is hilarious. I'm not saying it's undeserved, but literally two months ago he hadn't shot a single scene. Insanity.

Will Win: Willem Dafoe
Alternate: Sam Rockwell
Should Win: Willem Dafoe

Best Screenplay
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Molly’s Game

I had hoped Call Me By Your Name would've popped up here but at least it's one of the frontrunners at the Oscars for Adapted.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Lady Bird
Should Win: Lady Bird

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

I haven't seen any of these so my predictions are mostly from perceived buzz.

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Alternate: The Square
Should Win: N/A

Best Animated Film

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Coco absolutely killed me so I'm rooting for it, but it's surrounded by interesting picks.

Will Win: Coco
Alternate: The Breadwinner
Should Win: Coco

Best Original Song
"Home," Ferdinand
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Remember Me," Coco
"The Star," The Star
"This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

I wished one or both of Sufjan Stevens' songs from Call Me By Your Name had made it in, but no matter since I'm rooting for Coco or Greatest Showman.

Will Win: "Remember Me"
Alternate: "This Is Me"
Should Win: I'm okay with a tie or write-in votes for Stevens.

Best Original Score
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
Dunkirk

Anyone have actual thoughts on this category because I really, really don't.

Will Win: The Phantom Thread
Alternate: The Shape of Water
Should Win: I honestly don't know


Best TV Series, Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This is Us

A good mix of the kinds of shows the HFPA would pick for this category. Is anyone shocked?

Will Win: The Handmaid's Tale
Alternate: This Is Us
Should Win: The Handmaid's Tale

Best TV Series, Comedy
Black-ish
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Master of None
SMILF
Will & Grace

I'm kinda verklempf about this category. No The Good Place or Crazy Ex-Girlfriend feels defeatist all around.

Will Win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alternate: Master of None
Should Win: I'll just write-in my two aforementioned snubbed show.

Best Actress, TV Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Did Keri Russell stop being great because come on guys. That said, Moss should have this in the bag.

Will Win: Elisabeth Moss
Alternate: Claire Foy
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss

Best Actress, TV Musical/Comedy
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Issa Rae, Insecure
Frankie Shaw, SMILF

This is actually a pretty damn solid shortlist even with the absence of Rachel Bloom and Gina Rodriguez... and shockingly Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan
Alternate: Issa Rae
Should Win: Issa Rae

Best Actor, TV Drama

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This is Us
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Again did Matthew Rhys suddenly stopped being amazing? Because ugh. Also last year's winner Rami Malek is missing as well.

Will Win: Sterling K. Brown
Alternate: Bob Odenkirk
Should Win: Sterling K. Brown

Best Actor, TV Musical/Comedy

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
William H. Macy, Shameless
Eric McCormack, Will & Grace

No offense to him but McCormack being the sole W&G actor to get nominated is a joke funnier than any comedy last year. Ted Danson from The Good Place should've been here.

Will Win: Kevin Bacon
Alternate: Aziz Ansari
Should Win: Aziz Ansari

Best Limited Series or TV Movie
Big Little Lies
Fargo
Feud: Bette and Joan
The Sinner
Top of the Lake: China Girl

I think Big Little Lies will continue it's awards domination as it damn should.

Will Win: Big Little Lies
Alternate: Feud: Better and Joan
Should Win: Big Little Lies

Best Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie
Jessica Biel, The Sinner
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

Shout out to all those other actresses who were in other shows that just didn't have any chance this year. Also where did Biel come from?

Will Win: Nicole Kidman
Alternate: Jessica Lange
Should Win: Anyone by Sarandon really.

Best Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie
Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
Jude Law, The Young Pope
Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Geoffrey Rush, Genius

Meanwhile this category has a nominee from five shows so go figure. Anyways, I'm hoping for a Moulin Rouge sweep in these lead acting categories.

Will Win: Ewan McGregor
Alternate: Jude Law
Should Win: Ewan McGregor

Best Supporting Actress, TV
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This is Us
Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

I actually think this is a tricky category to pin down. I think Dern has the slightly upper hand due to her AMAZING year, but we'll see.

Will Win: Laura Dern
Alternate: Ann Dowd
Should Win: Laura Dern

Best Supporting Actor, TV

David Harbour, Stranger Things
Alfred Molina, Feud
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
David Thewlis, Fargo

Your guesses are as good as mine, but I think Emmy winner Skarsgard will get this due to the show's love.

Will Win: Alexander Skarsgard
Alternate: Alfred Molina
Should Win: David Harbour

Let's see how wrong I am tomorrow night.