Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

This has been a weird year. A really, really weird year. First, the Academy seemed to have lost their damn minds in reaction to getting "low" ratings last year. What followed is a series of hilarious and inane directives they thought would improve ratings only to be met with swift and deserved backlash. Most of those were reversed, but awards season had its own drama separate from that. Can a black-and-white Netflix film really be the front-runner? Did the major guilds really give their awards to historically more films? Did a mediocre film directed by Bryan Singer actually maintain Oscar momentum? What is going the fuck on? Well, on to my thoughts and predictions...

BEST PICTURE

• Black Panther (7 nominations)
• BlacKkKlansman (6 nominations)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (5 nominations)
• The Favourite (10 nominations)
• Green Book (5 nominations)
• Roma (10 nominations)
• A Star Is Born (8 nominations)
• Vice (8 nominations)

A few solid picks, a couple historic-making films, and some really mediocre movies. Sounds about right. A few films that probably were on the long list include Eighth Grade, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, and First Man which honestly would've been a better choice that a few picks here. The film to beat is also the unlikeliest to win based on history. Roma after all is a foreign language film and from a streaming platform. But what other films could win? Green Book's facile attempt at race relations appeals to Academy's more conservative members (see Driving Miss Daisy, Crash) while BlacKkKlansman offers a more timely and more thoughtful experience.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Green Book
FINAL WORD: While I love Roma, my pick would've been The Favourite. But even if it walks home empty-handed the fact that a Lanthimos film got 10 Oscar nominations is a minor miracle. Click here for my first thoughts on the BP nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
• Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
• Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
• Adam McKay, Vice

It's insane that this is Spike Lee's first nomination, but thankfully here he is and for a damn good film. The inclusion of Pawlikowski, Lanthimos and Cuarón (hopefully) speaks to the more internationally diverse Academy. McKay... is nominated. Over Bradley Cooper. Over Ryan Coogler. Over the various women who made wonderful films this year. But hey, at least Bryan Singer is nowhere to be found. This is Cuarón's award to lose.

PREDICTION: Alfonso Cuarón
ALTERNATE: Spike Lee
FINAL WORD: If they pick anyone but McKay, it'll be a good year. But maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? This is getting absolutely tiresome.



BEST ACTRESS

• Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
• Glenn Close, The Wife
• Olivia Colman, The Favourite
• Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I think people saw Close, Colman, and Gaga from a mile away. And while Close is very nearly the favorite to pick up her first (!) Oscar, it's actually competitive with Colman possibly playing the spoiler especially with her film garnering 10 nominations to Close's sole nod. McCarthy picking up her second nod for such an unlikely film makes me smile as does Aparicio getting a nod on her debut film!

PREDICTION: Glenn Close
ALTERNATE: Olivia Colman
FINAL WORD: They went heavily with drama instead of horror (Toni Collette) and musical (Emily Blunt). Hopefully both will get their dues soon. But Close! Colman! Whoever wins, it's going to be a GREAT speech.

BEST ACTOR

• Christian Bale, Vice
• Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

This category fills me with much dread with four performances from films that range from mediocre to awful. The only performance from a film I liked is Cooper's and it's insane to me that he isn't a front-runner especially since he was blanked on a directing nomination. Instead Malek is inexplicably the likely winner and while he wasn't bad, the whole packaging of the performance and the film have left an immense bad taste in my mouth. Unfortunate since I actually like him.

PREDICTION: Rami Malek
ALTERNATE: Bradley Cooper
FINAL WORD: How about for the next few years we award those playing original characters as opposed to real life people? If we did that this year... guess what... Bradley Cooper wins by default! UGH.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Vice
• Marina de Tavira, Roma
• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone, The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

De Tavira's inclusion here signaled the strong support for her film, because she literally didn't appear anywhere else during the precursors. It was a refreshing surprise especially for a role that could've easily gone unnoticed. Category fraud aside, I do love Stone/Weisz and in love with what they did in their film. Adams will win her Oscar someday and King will probably win her first this year. Other names on the probable long list include Claire Foy, Michelle Yeoh (sigh), Emily Blunt, and Nicole Kidman.

PREDICTION: Regina King
ALTERNATE: Rachel Weisz
FINAL WORD: Other than Stone, I think anyone can win here. It's weirdly in flux even though King dominated awards season. But the lack of a SAG and BAFTA nomination makes her vulnerable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book
• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell, Vice

It makes sense that Ali has become the front-runner. A lot people like the film and more like him as a person. Plus he's practically a lead. It is unfortunate though since as much as I like him, I think Driver/Elliot/Grant are more deserving winners especially Grant. Rockwell's nomination is absolutely ridiculous as was his win last year (and I like him!). It's especially egregious due to all the people who could've taken his place like Timothée Chalamet, Michael B Jordan, Alessandro Nivola, Colman Domingo, and Steven Yeun. Harsh.

PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali
ALTERNATE: Sam Elliott
FINAL WORD: Grant has been having the time of his life post-Oscar nod and it'd be thrilling if he pulled off the upset, but I'm not predicting it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

I'm personally offended that Crazy Rich Asians or Black Panther weren't nominated here, but the Academy gonna do its thing I guess even though both films made a lot of money and were critically acclaimed. Buster Scruggs' inclusion shocked me a but, but Coen brothers are practically royalty here. Anyways, this is the category that might just get Spike Lee (for BlacKkKlansman) his first Oscars.

PREDICTION: BlacKkKlansman
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: Can You Ever Forgive Me? won the WGA which was a minor shock. I wouldn't be surprised if it won here, but I do think it's between Lee and Jenkins.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

WGA-winner Eighth Grade should've been here and it's aggressively obnoxious that it wasn't included especially over the likes of Green Book and Vice. In any case, this is a wide open category. Literally any of these films can win. Your guess is as good as anyone else's at this point.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: First Reformed
FINAL WORD: My personal pick here would be The Favourite or Roma. I'm not the biggest fan of the rest and I'm still pissed that Eighth Grade wasn't nominated.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum (Lebanon)
• Cold War (Poland)
• Never Look Away (Germany)
• Roma (Mexico)
• Shoplifters (Japan)

I've only seen Roma, but I have Shoplifters in DVD to watch this weekend. Cold War, especially with its Directing nod, is also a strong contender. Roma is the favorite, but if the Academy think that'll be awarded elsewhere (like Picture/Director), they might be compelled to give this award to another film. And why not give it to the Cannes-winning film?

PREDICTION: Cold War
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: I haven't seen it yet, but Burning had a lot of fans. And The Cakemaker didn't even make the longlist.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This list was pretty set awhile ago with no big shocker one way or another. Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs were probably fighting for the win most of the year until Into the Spider-Verse came out and just absolutely changed the conversation entirely by its dazzling visuals and perfect script. If there's any justice in the world, that film would win easily, but unfortunately it's not the almighty Disney (see How to Train Your Dragon 2 losing to Big Hero 6).

PREDICTION: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
ALTERNATE: Incredibles 2
FINAL WORD: We are all Spider-Man.

BEST FILM EDITING

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Green Book
• The Favourite
• Vice

Increasingly this category has come to awarding film with the most and obvious editing. So if that's the case, it's likely going to either Vice or ACE-winner Bohemian Rhapsody. Since I'm not a fan of either film, I'm hoping neither one of them gets it. How Roma or First Man or any of this year's critically acclaimed documentaries didn't get nominated perplexes me to no end.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: I'm too despondent to say anything else. Only to cheer BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite to "upset" this category.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Black Panther
• First Man
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

As opposed to editing, this technical category is actually chock full of good films and surprisingly, good production design! What a word! This is probably The Favourite's to win, but hilariously there isn't a favorite this year.

PREDICTION: The Favourite
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Roma is probably the more accomplished, but The Favourite is more noticeable. Both are damn worthy.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

Most people were shocked at Never Look Away, but Deschanel is a big name so it's less shocking in retrospect. With that said, the lack of First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk is frustrating. Anyways, this is Roma vs. Cold War.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Cold War
FINAL WORD: Hey, remember when Deakins finally won last year? That's a good memory.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

This is a fun category even though the lack of contemporary films like Crazy Rich Asians and A Simple Favor makes this feel incomplete. With that said, this is a difficult one to predict. I'm thinking it's between Powell (The Favourite) or Carter (Black Panther) and with Powell double-nominated (nominated for Mary Poppins as well), that might just make a difference in Carter's favor.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: The Favourite
FINAL WORD: Seriously, what do contemporary films need to do to get some traction here?!

BEST VISUAL EFFCTS

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

It's actually refreshing to see Black Panther not nominated here, because it really didn't deserve it. I am sad to see Ant-Man and the Wasp miss out here, but this is probably where the Academy can give a deserved win to the much maligned First Man which should've been a blockbuster hit with so many more nominations.

PREDICTION: First Man
ALTERNATE: Avengers: Infinity War
FINAL WORD: Seriously, that moon landing sequence is just *chef's kiss*.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice

Suspiria was probably the big miss here, but Best Picture films like The Favourite, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman felt like they could've been considered here. At least Bohemian Rhapsody and its teeth weren't nominated.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Border
FINAL WORD: Seriously, thank goodness Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG

How the fuck do they not nominate Mister Rogers? Isn't that sacrilegous or something? It's also surprising to see them not nominate the much buzzed Three Identical Strangers. With that said, this genre's other big hits are present here--Free Solo, Minding the Gap, and RBG--and I'll be shocked if one of these don't win. I love them all so it's a win-win-win either way.

PREDICTION: Free Solo
ALTERNATE: Minding the Gap
FINAL WORD: Seriously, I probably saw more documentaries this year than any year and this category is so good this year. Can we have ties?
BEST SOUND EDITING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Surprisingly this is A Quiet Place's one and only nomination and honestly, it should win this. But my sentimental pick is First Man. Roma is probably the best choice overall, but sadly Bohemian Rhapsody is the favorite because everyone loves Queen I guess.

PREDICTION: Bohemian Rhapsody
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Just sing Queen in karaoke and stop giving it awards!

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

I don't have any additional thoughts here, but again Bohemian Rhapsody is probably the one to beat with Roma or First Man as the alternate pick.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: Is this real life? Is this just fantasy?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

It's a good list, but First Man was the favorite going into the nominations and when it didn't get in, it suddenly became a free-for-all. I honestly have no idea who's going to win here, but well First Man was absolutely robbed.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: [listens to First Man's score]

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "All The Stars," Black Panther
• "I’ll Fight," RBG
• "The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
• "Shallow," A Star Is Born
• "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings," The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

They could've had Dolly Parton or Lin-Manuel Miranda, but alas. And now Emily Blunt and Kendrick Lamar are not performing (though Bette Midler is taking Blunt's place...which okay). OBVIOUSLY this is Lady Gaga's Oscar to lose. Take that Glenn Close!

PREDICTION: "Shallow"
ALTERNATE: "All The Stars"
FINAL WORD: In the sha-ha, sha-ha-ha-low...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Detainment
• Fauve
• Marguerite
• Mother
• Skin

Apparently this year's slate is extra depressing. I usually watch these every year, but I took a pass this year. Marguerite is the sole non-kill-me-now film so I'll pick that for the win.

PREDICTION: Marguerite
ALTERNATE: Mother

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Animal Behaviour
• Bao
• Late Afternoon
• One Small Step
• Weekends

I was going to see this slate since Live Action was bleak, but I also didn't get a chance. I saw Bao in front of Incredibles 2 and it IS created by Asian filmmakers.

PREDICTION: Bao
ALTERNATE: One Small Step

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Black Sheep
• End Game
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Period. End of Sentence.

A couple of these are on Netflix and a couple more are available to stream elsewhere. Period. End of Sentence is probably the lightest of them all, but also most accessible. Lifeboat and A Night at the Garden are most timely.

PREDICTION: Lifeboat
ALTERNATE: Period. End of Sentence.

So I'm predicting 5 wins for Roma including Picture/Director while the only other films getting multiple wins being Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and Vice. The other fun thing is that apparently I'm predicting all the Best Picture nominees to walk away with at least one award. Will the Oscars actually be so spread-the-wealth? It's not often this happens so I'm probably really, really wrong. Anyways, we'll all see tomorrow! Still no host! Unless it's Whoopi Goldberg. But probably not though.

Click here for my picks on who should win.

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

A little bit more than 24 hours from now, we'll know all the winners as well as the also-rans of the 90th Academy Awards. On the one hand, the awards season was and still is unpredictable. Does anyone really know what's winning Best Picture or which film will get the most wins? On the other hand, those acting races were way more competitive early on before the usual precursors rubber-stamped all the winners. The lesson though of last year's ceremony though is... unexpected things can still happen. Will it this year? Who knows?

BEST PICTURE

• Call Me by Your Name (4 nominations)
• Darkest Hour (6 nominations)
• Dunkirk (8 nominations)
• Get Out (4 nominations)
• Lady Bird (5 nominations)
• Phantom Thread (6 nominations)
• The Post (2 nominations)
• The Shape of Water (13 nominations)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7 nominations)

I think some people expected The Florida Project to sneak in here, but the rest had been in the conversation early enough with momentum ebbing and flowing from one film to the next. I think the three films vying for the win are Three Billboards (lots of precursor love), The Shape of Water (top nominee + slam dunk directing win), and Get Out (preferential ballot favorite + film of the year). Dunkirk is probably the dark horse and could've been the favorite a few years ago (WWII film with lots of technical wizardry).

PREDICTION: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
ALTERNATE: Get Out
FINAL WORD: Can the beautifully gay indie film pull off the shocking upset again please?

BEST DIRECTOR

• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele, Get Out
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Honestly, I love this shortlist. I probably would've replaced Anderson with Luca Guadagnino or Sean Baker, but really no actual complaints here. I mean look at these names! Just one of Del Toro, Peele, or Gerwig would've been thrilling enough, but all three? Plus this is Nolan's FIRST Oscar nomination for directing. While I think Peele should win this hands down, there's no bad choices here and the likely winner Del Toro would certainly be a wonderful champ.

PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro
ALTERNATE: Jordan Peele
FINAL WORD: In its 90 years, Gerwig is only the 5th woman and Peele is only the 5th black director to be nominated. Damn.

BEST ACTRESS

• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep, The Post

Ronan and Hawkins picking up critical awards, Robbie getting her breakthrough moment, and Streep doing her usual best work... plus Emma Stone one-upping her Oscar winning performance last year, Jessica Chastain challenging herself, Daniela Vega being a revelation. Could've been a great race. I don't begrudge McDormand. She's awesome and I'll be happy for her to pick up her 2nd Oscars tomorrow, but what could've been.

PREDICTION: Frances McDorman
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan
FINAL WORD: I actually love all of these performances but man Ronan should've been the frontrunner from the beginning.

BEST ACTOR

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I'm most excited for Kaluuya's nomination here. It helps that his film is a cultural phenomenon, but I think a lot of people miss the brilliance in his subtle performance. Also thrilled for Chalamet who has carried the "breakthrough revelation" label since the film premiered more than a year ago in Sundance. One of those two SHOULD be winning, but it'll go to Oldman because he plays Winston Churchill. He was always the favorite, sight unseen, and well yeah.

PREDICTION: Gary Oldman
ALTERNATE: Daniel Day-Lewis
FINAL WORD: Chalamet would be a lot of people's alternate, but Oscars love Day-Lewis and for his "final film"? Weirder things.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

From the very beginning this was thought to be a two-woman race between Metcalf and Janney, two very well-loved veterans. In fact Metcalf did get some critical love early on, but Janney's flashier role and bigger personality made her dominant through awards season and her first Oscar will be the bow on top. Raise a glass through to some also-rans which had some buzz like Tiffany Haddish, Holly Hunter, and Hong Chau.

PREDICTION: Allison Janney
ALTERNATE: Laurie Metcalf
FINAL WORD: The Academy doesn't do ties, but think about it just this once maybe?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Let's get the Kevin Spacey pink elephant out of the way. Plummer's nomination is remarkable. He filmed his scenes in NOVEMBER. Is this the Academy praising his work or sticking it to a disgraced Spacey or them giving a nod to the changing landscape. Who can say? Anyways, Three Billboards doubling up here is indicative of the movie's strength and Rockwell will take that to victory. Dafoe had some buzz early on, but as with all the other acting categories, this one is won and done.

PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell
ALTERNATE: Willem Dafoe
FINAL WORD: They couldn't have doubled up with Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer on Call Me By Your Name instead? Stuhlbarg was robbed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Call Me by Your Name
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound

With the biggest films in the other screenplay category, this is the best shot for Call Me By Your Name to not walk home empty-handed tomorrow and the best shot for James Ivory to pick up his first Oscar win. He's the favorite, but some people seem weirdly put off by the film (they are dumb). I guess the question is, even if they are, which film would take its place? No one can seem to agree to that, so... win?

PREDICTION: Call Me By Your Name
ALTERNATE: Molly's Game
FINAL WORD: I might riot if James Ivory doesn't win. We all should.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards

With 4 Best Pictures in the mix, this is probably the most competitive category of the night. You can make a case for any one of them to win this. As an aside, I'm happy that indie hit The Big Sick got recognized here. General consensus seems to have it as a two-film race between Get Out and Three Billboards and I do hope it goes to the first since it's likely will be its one award.

PREDICTION: Three Billboards
ALTERNATE: Get Out
FINAL WORD: I'm predicting to protect my disappointment, but also I want to put it out in the world that Lady Bird winning would be freaking awesome.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
• The Insult (Lebanon)
• Loveless (Russia)
• On Body and Soul (Hungary)
• The Square (Sweden)

I've only seen two of them, A Fantastic Woman (amazing) and On Body and Soul (not bad at all). And have heard good stuff about the others. Shortlisted films that didn't make the cut that some people really liked included The Wound, Felicite and In the Fade which people thought could've been favored to win here. And then there's France's BPM being shocking short list omission. The Academy should feel shameful regarding that.

PREDICTION: A Fantastic Woman
ALTERNATE: The Square
FINAL WORD: I actually have no idea who's favored to win here, but I do know you should try to watch all of these.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

As someone who actually liked The Boss Baby, this category still feels awfully thin this year, doesn't it? Last year a Finding Nemo sequel which I really liked didn't get nominated and I was OKAY because the category was stacked. Anyways, Pixar's wonderful Coco is the odds-on favorite this year and is probably the lockiest win tomorrow night apart from the acting awards.

PREDICTION: Coco
ALTERNATE: The Breadwinner
FINAL WORD: Coco should win for its gorgeous rendering of the Land of the Dead alone and making me ugly cry a lot.

BEST FILM EDITING

• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk
• I, Tonya
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards

Convention says a Best Picture film wins this and with Dunkirk being the most OBVIOUSLY edited, it's the frontrunner. And yet Baby Driver could take some of these technical awards in a surprise.

PREDICTION: Dunkirk
ALTERNATE: Baby Driver
FINAL WORD: Three Billboards getting in here instead of Get Out is a travesty.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water

If the want to go with MOST then Beauty and the Beast could challenge here. If they want to go with PERIOD then Dunkirk or Darkest Hour. If they want to go with CREATIVE, perhaps Blade Runner. But I think Shape of Water has a bit of all of those so I think it'll win.

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Call Me By Your Name's Italian villa with its books and various fruits was perfection.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound
• The Shape of Water

This is the technical category everyone is excited about. And why not? We have Mudbound's Rachel Morrison as the FIRST EVER woman to ever be nominated in this category. And this year could actually be it for 14-time nominated Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) to get his first Oscar! Dunkirk and Darkest Hour with their WWII epicness will challenge, but #Oscar4Deakins.

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Seriously, give it to Deakins already.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Mighty River," Mudbound
• "Mystery of Love," Call Me by Your Name
• "Remember Me," Coco
• "Stand Up for Something," Marshall
• "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

Early last year I thought Celine Dion's Beauty & the Beast song had this in the bag. Thankfully the year brought us some more great choices and this shortlist is stacked with not only quality, but talent. Last year's champs Pasek and Paul are the front-runners with "This is Me," their underdog anthem that's a big hit with film and music audiences. And as much as I love that song, I'm hoping "Mystery of Love" or "Remember Me" pull off the upset. Actually, I'm good with a three-way tie.

PREDICTION: "This Is Me"
ALTERNATE: "Remember Me"
FINAL WORD: I cannot wait for all of these performances!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Dunkirk
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Three Billboards

John Williams could get his 6th win for Star Wars, but I think it's a two-man race between Alexandre Desplat's delicate work on The Shape of Water and Hans Zimmer's bombastic work on Dunkirk. If Three Billboards win here, it'll probably take Best Picture.

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Congrats on Johnny Greenwood's first nomination for Phantom Thread.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Blade Runner 2049
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
• Kong: Skull Island
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

I'd probably replace either Guardians or Kong for Thor: Ragnarok and I was a bit surprised by the exclusions of The Shape of Water and Dunkirk, but overall a nice list. It's also hard to predict since "most" in this case is pretty much all of them plus all of them got good reviews.

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
ALTERNATE: War for the Planet of the Apes
FINAL WORD: They haven't felt the need to reward Apes franchise yet (a bummer). Could this be the year?

BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

These are two different categories, but since they have the same nominees, I thought I'd put them together. Plus I think this year the same film is going to win them both. I have no idea what it'll be. Dunkirk is the obvious choice, but I think Baby Driver and Blade Runner are right there.

PREDICTION (for both): Dunkirk
ALTERNATE (for both): Baby Driver
FINAL WORD: One of these days I'll remember the difference.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Darkest Hour
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Victoria & Abdul

Frankly I was more partial to the pitch perfect period stylings of Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name not to mention the wonderfully flash and trashy costumes in I, Tonya, but alas. This is an easy win for Phantom Thread, right?

PREDICTION: Phantom Thread
ALTERNATE: Beauty and the Beast
FINAL WORD: Is Doug Jones' creature a costume? If so, maybe they should win for dat ass alone.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• Darkest Hour
• Victoria & Abdul
• Wonder

These were all a bit expected once the finalists were named, but I, Tonya really should've been here. A moment of silence for the makeup artist for Kevin Spacey on All the Money in the World.

PREDICTION: Darkest Hour
ALTERNATE: Victoria & Abdul
FINAL WORD: Can't wait to never see Oldman as Churchill ever again.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Abacus Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo
• Strong Island

Three of these films are available on Netflix so go binge them now! That's how I saw Icarus and Strong Island, both very good, though I really liked Icarus. Might see Last Men in Aleppo tomorrow. Agnes Varda could win for Faces Places. Who do you got?

PREDICTION: Faces Places
ALTERNATE: Icarus
FINAL WORD: Varda's cardboard cutout was the awards seasons VIP.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Edith+Eddie
• Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
• Heroin(e)
• Knife Skills
• Traffic Stop

Haven't seen any of these, but Heroin(e) is on Netflix so I might before the ceremony. Not sure if any of the others are readily available. (ETA: Knife Skills and Heaven is a Traffic Jam are on YouTube).

PREDICTION: Traffic Stop
ALTERNATE: Heroin(e)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Dear Basketball
• Garden Party
• Lou
• Negative Space
• Revolting Rhymes

Anyone know if any of these are available to stream? (ETA: Garden Party is online, Lou is on YouTube, Revolting Rhymes is on Netflix). Anyways, I've heard people like Revolting Rhymes. Dear Basketball has big names attached to it which usually means the win. I certainly don't know.

PREDICTION: Dear Basketball
ALTERNATE: Revolting Rhymes

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• DeKalb Elementary
• The Eleven O’Clock
• My Nephew Emmett
• The Silent Child
• Watu Wote/All of Us

I just saw these today and I'm happy to report there's not a dud among them. It makes it that more difficult to pick a winner though DeKalb Elementary might have a leg up for being (unfortunately) timely. Watu Wote is probably the most emotional one. And there's The Eleven O'Clock which is the one humorous one amongst some heavy drama.

PREDICTION: DeKalb Elementary
ALTERNATE: Watu Wote/All of Us

And so now we wait until tomorrow. My picks for who should win is here.

My Personal Oscar Ballot

This long awards season ends this coming Sunday with the 90th Academy Awards. After a prolonged period between nominations and ceremony, the deadline for voters to send in their final ballots is tomorrow. In that spirit, below would be my ballot if I was one of the lucky Oscar voters.

Note: For Best Picture, Academy voters are asked to rank their choices. For the other categories, they are only asked to pick their choice of winner, which is exactly what I've done.

Best Picture
1 - Lady Bird
2 - Get Out
3 - Call Me By Your Name
4 - Dunkirk
5 - Shape of Water
6 - Phantom Thread
7 - The Post
8 - Three Billboards
9 - Darkest Hour

Best Director: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Lead Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Best Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor: Willen Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Original Screenplay: Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: "Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
Best Editing: Baby Driver
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hair: Wonder
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: War of the Planet of the Apes
Best Live Action Short: Dekalb Elementary
Best Animated Short: Negative Space
Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e)

So looks like Lady Bird would be my biggest winner with 4 awards including Picture and Actress. Call Me By Your Name would be next with 3 awards including Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Get Out gets just 1 win for me, but it's a big one with Best Director. For the other awards, I spread the love a bit and really made to to give my theoretical vote to a film that I truly think deserve it. For the shorts, I voted based on summary.

Golden Globes: Thoughts, Predictions, and Hopes

Is it just me or are the Golden Globes super early this year? Then again last year's took place just a day later so maybe I'm just imagining things. Anyways, are y'all ready for the first major televised awards this season? I'M NOT but no one thinks about my schedule. At they very least I have seen most of the nominated films give or take a Molly's Game or a Phantom Thread. Anyways onwards...

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All The Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

A bit disappointing not to see Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele or Luca Guadagnino in the mix here. Hoping the DGA and Oscar think through this list a bit more.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Alternate: Ridley Scott
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (or the aforementioned three snubs)

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Two films that probably expected a nomination were Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread. Frankly I wish The Florida Project made it in, but this is a damn solid list.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Best Motion Picture, Comedy/Musical
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

The big miss here would be The Big Sick which seemed like a lock a few months ago, but flashier, starrier films knocked it down a peg or two.  At least no embarrassing nominations here.

Will Win: Lady Bird
Alternate: Get Out
Should Win: Lady Bird

Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

While they won't win I actually think Streep and Williams' nominations are inspired. They both can feel default-y some years, but they pulled it out this year.

Will Win: Sally Hawkins
Alternate: Frances McDormand
Should Win: Sally Hawkins

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

The HFPA really love Mirren don't they? Regina Hall in Girls' Trip or even Emma Watson in Beauty & the Beast would've probably made more sense. Love that Stone wasn't forgotten this season though.

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Alternate: Margot Robbie
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Best Actor, Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I'm rooting so hard for Chalamet to breakthrough especially against such BIG NAMES. His closest competition is the only other non-winner and probably front-runner.

Will Win: Gary Oldman
Alternate: Timothée Chalamet
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Kumail Nanjiani should've been nominated, but I don't really mind this list. In fact, it's pretty solid. Though Chris Hemsworth in Thor: Ragnarok was also robbed.

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Alternate: Hugh Jackman
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Gotta love the diversity here and especially Chau and Blige's award season's constancy. That said it's all about Janney vs. Metcalf.

Will Win: Allison Janney
Alternate: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Honestly I'd be pleased with a tie.

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Plummer's nomination is hilarious. I'm not saying it's undeserved, but literally two months ago he hadn't shot a single scene. Insanity.

Will Win: Willem Dafoe
Alternate: Sam Rockwell
Should Win: Willem Dafoe

Best Screenplay
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Molly’s Game

I had hoped Call Me By Your Name would've popped up here but at least it's one of the frontrunners at the Oscars for Adapted.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Alternate: Lady Bird
Should Win: Lady Bird

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

I haven't seen any of these so my predictions are mostly from perceived buzz.

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Alternate: The Square
Should Win: N/A

Best Animated Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Coco absolutely killed me so I'm rooting for it, but it's surrounded by interesting picks.

Will Win: Coco
Alternate: The Breadwinner
Should Win: Coco

Best Original Song
"Home," Ferdinand
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Remember Me," Coco
"The Star," The Star
"This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

I wished one or both of Sufjan Stevens' songs from Call Me By Your Name had made it in, but no matter since I'm rooting for Coco or Greatest Showman.

Will Win: "Remember Me"
Alternate: "This Is Me"
Should Win: I'm okay with a tie or write-in votes for Stevens.

Best Original Score
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
Dunkirk

Anyone have actual thoughts on this category because I really, really don't.

Will Win: The Phantom Thread
Alternate: The Shape of Water
Should Win: I honestly don't know

Best TV Series, Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This is Us

A good mix of the kinds of shows the HFPA would pick for this category. Is anyone shocked?

Will Win: The Handmaid's Tale
Alternate: This Is Us
Should Win: The Handmaid's Tale

Best TV Series, Comedy
Black-ish
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Master of None
SMILF
Will & Grace

I'm kinda verklempf about this category. No The Good Place or Crazy Ex-Girlfriend feels defeatist all around.

Will Win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alternate: Master of None
Should Win: I'll just write-in my two aforementioned snubbed show.

Best Actress, TV Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Did Keri Russell stop being great because come on guys. That said, Moss should have this in the bag.

Will Win: Elisabeth Moss
Alternate: Claire Foy
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss

Best Actress, TV Musical/Comedy
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Issa Rae, Insecure
Frankie Shaw, SMILF

This is actually a pretty damn solid shortlist even with the absence of Rachel Bloom and Gina Rodriguez... and shockingly Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan
Alternate: Issa Rae
Should Win: Issa Rae

Best Actor, TV Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This is Us
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Again did Matthew Rhys suddenly stopped being amazing? Because ugh. Also last year's winner Rami Malek is missing as well.

Will Win: Sterling K. Brown
Alternate: Bob Odenkirk
Should Win: Sterling K. Brown

Best Actor, TV Musical/Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
William H. Macy, Shameless
Eric McCormack, Will & Grace

No offense to him but McCormack being the sole W&G actor to get nominated is a joke funnier than any comedy last year. Ted Danson from The Good Place should've been here.

Will Win: Kevin Bacon
Alternate: Aziz Ansari
Should Win: Aziz Ansari

Best Limited Series or TV Movie
Big Little Lies
Fargo
Feud: Bette and Joan
The Sinner
Top of the Lake: China Girl

I think Big Little Lies will continue it's awards domination as it damn should.

Will Win: Big Little Lies
Alternate: Feud: Better and Joan
Should Win: Big Little Lies

Best Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie
Jessica Biel, The Sinner
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

Shout out to all those other actresses who were in other shows that just didn't have any chance this year. Also where did Biel come from?

Will Win: Nicole Kidman
Alternate: Jessica Lange
Should Win: Anyone by Sarandon really.

Best Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie
Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
Jude Law, The Young Pope
Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Geoffrey Rush, Genius

Meanwhile this category has a nominee from five shows so go figure. Anyways, I'm hoping for a Moulin Rouge sweep in these lead acting categories.

Will Win: Ewan McGregor
Alternate: Jude Law
Should Win: Ewan McGregor

Best Supporting Actress, TV
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This is Us
Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

I actually think this is a tricky category to pin down. I think Dern has the slightly upper hand due to her AMAZING year, but we'll see.

Will Win: Laura Dern
Alternate: Ann Dowd
Should Win: Laura Dern

Best Supporting Actor, TV
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Alfred Molina, Feud
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
David Thewlis, Fargo

Your guesses are as good as mine, but I think Emmy winner Skarsgard will get this due to the show's love.

Will Win: Alexander Skarsgard
Alternate: Alfred Molina
Should Win: David Harbour

Let's see how wrong I am tomorrow night.

Thoughts on Oscar Nominations and Predictions

With just a day to go until the 89th Academy Awards, here are my thoughts on the nominations (and the snubs) as well as my personal picks to win and also my predictions. All-in-one post for efficiency!

BEST PICTURE

• Arrival (8 nominations)
• Fences (4 nominations)
• Hacksaw Ridge (6 nominations)
• Hell or High Water (4 nominations)
• Hidden Figures (3 nominations)
• La La Land (14 nominations)
• Lion (6 nominations)
• Manchester by the Sea (6 nominations)
• Moonlight (8 nominations)

It's La La Land's world and we just live in it. And I couldn't be happier. It's not often that the Oscar front-runner (with a record tying 14 Oscar nominations) is also my favorite film so I've been quite enjoying its dominant awards-season run even with the predictable backlash. If that backlash sticks though Moonlight should benefit and thankfully I really like that film too! Meanwhile don't ask me why Hacksaw Ridge or Hell or High Water were nominated.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

I wished this had matched up the DGA nomination with Garth Davis (Lion) replacing Gibson, but alas we can't have everything. I think the other nominees were pretty expected and quite deserving. I'm especially thrilled that Villeneuve made it in for a sci-fi film and that Jenkins could become the first black director to win. But I think no one is beating Chazelle. I think even La La Land detractors would agree that he directed that movie wonderfully.

SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle
COULD WIN: Barry Jenkins

BEST ACTRESS

• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Natalie Portman, Jackie
• Ruth Negga, Loving
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Isabelle Huppert, Elle

This was a very competitive year for this category that such veterans like Annette Bening and Amy Adams were left out in the cold. The safe bet here is to pick Stone with her winnings the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. But Portman and Huppert have their staunch fans and they've picked up their share of awards as well (i.e. Stone hasn't steamrolled). And let's give it up for Negga nabbing her first nomination... and of course Streep getting her 20th (!) Oscar nomination.

SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone
WILL WIN: Emma Stone
COULD WIN: Isabelle Huppert

BEST ACTOR

• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington, Fences

If there was an acting race, this would be the category to watch. Affleck is the slight frontrunner dominating the awards season, but there was always the hint of a scandal that never coalesced to anything concrete. And Washington is right there on Affleck's heels with his own powerhouse of a performance garnering him the SAG which feels like a shift in the race... or not. What I would give to have Gosling win in a shock (though as much as I love his film, he should've been nominated for The Nice Guys). Then again as happy as I am for Garfield's first nom (should've been for The Social Network), it really should be for Silence and not this film.

SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck
COULD WIN: Denzel Washington

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Viola Davis, Fences
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

First and foremost I love Davis and I'm so happy she's going to win her first Oscar! And yeah, no one is going to beat her. With that said, it's so clearly a lead role and I'm just a little bit disappointed at the category fraud. She would've been VERY competitive in lead. With that said, I also can't fault her. She's a lock here. If she wasn't here I think Williams could've won her first or perhaps Harris in a "shock" win. Anyways, if Davis wasn't here, who could've snuck in? Greta Gerwig? Janelle Monae?

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis
WILL WIN: Viola Davis
COULD WIN: Michelle Williams (but she won't)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Ali is the frontrunner here after dominating the awards season early on, but since then the race has gotten more interesting. He lost to Aaron-Taylor Johnson at the Globes and Patel at BAFTA. Thankfully Johnson wasn't nominated (instead his co-star Shannon deservedly snuck in without much precursor support), but with Lion surging, Patel is still a threat. Bridges' nod is so damn uninspiring. Could've made room instead for Hugh Grant or Ralph Fiennes.

SHOULD WIN: Michael Shannon
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali
COULD WIN: Dev Patel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hidden Figures
• Lion
• Moonlight

At the WGA Awards, Arrival won, but it wasn't up against Moonlight which interestingly enough was in the Original Screenplay category and won that award. I think Moonlight will make history and double-dip by winning here. If anything its closest competition is probably the surging Lion or the beloved Fences (to posthumously honor August Wilson) and not Arrival.

SHOULD WIN: Lion
WILL WIN: Moonlight
COULD WIN: Fences

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• The Lobster
• Manchester by the Sea
• 20th Century Women

With Moonlight in Adapted, this should be a cakewalk for Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea UNLESS the Oscars want to give La La Land all the awards which it could very well do. I don't think they will, but you never know. I *am* thrilled to see The Lobster and 20th Century Women nominated here. By far the two best scripts in film this year.

SHOULD WIN: The Lobster
WILL WIN: Manchester by the Sea
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Land of Mine (Denmark)
• A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
• The Salesman (Iran)
• Tanna (Australia)
• Toni Erdmann (Germany)

I'm a bit sad I haven't seen any of these films yet, but I know I'll eventually see at least Toni Erdmann (the favorite to win) and The Salesman (the very strong possible spoiler). With early favorites Elle and Neruda not making it in, Toni Erdmann is the only other film to receive precursor love, but if the Academy wants to make a political statement look for Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman. Also if you haven't read the joint statement of these filmmakers, you must.

SHOULD WIN: The Salesman
WILL WIN: Toni Erdmann
COULD WIN: The Salesman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• My Life as a Zucchini
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia

I think you know it's a great year in animation when a Finding Nemo sequel is just my fourth favorite animated film of the year and I'm not even sad it's not nominated. Zootopia is the favorite to win and it's also MY favorite animated film of the year, but I did love Moana and Kubo as well and the latter, with its recent BAFTA win, is nipping at the Zootopia's heels. I've also only heard good things about the other two which I haven't seen.

SHOULD WIN: Zootopia
WILL WIN: Zootopia
COULD WIN: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST FILM EDITING

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Moonlight

All of these are Best Picture nominees and convention says La La Land will take this (and it will deserve it!). But if they want MOST editing, they could possibly go with Hacksaw Ridge or even Hell or High Water. Arrival or Moonlight would be inspired.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Arrival
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• Passengers

Here's the thing, if it was up to me I'd give La La Land most of the categories it's nominated for. And the Academy could very well think the same thing and give it a win here. With that said, I think Fantastic Beasts and Arrival and maybe even Passengers had some precursor support. The big miss here was The Handmaiden.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: Arrival
COULD WIN: Fantastic Beast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Arrival
• La La Land
• Silence
• Lion
• Moonlight

Probably one of my favorite list of nominees this year. I just think every single nomination here is truly well-deserved as I thought these were five of the most beautiful films I saw this past year. Again convention says La La Land if they want to sweep, but I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if Moonlight or even Lion took the trophy.

SHOULD WIN: Lion
WILL WIN: Moonlight
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
• "Can’t Stop the Feeling," Trolls
• "City of Stars," La La Land
• "The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story
• "How Far I’ll Go," Moana

Last year's winner was deplorable so the Academy can only do better this year! And it's a good list with the exception of the totally random "The Empty Chair." It probably took the spot of "Do Anything" from Zootopia or the totally awesome "Drive It Like You Stole It" from Sing Street. That said, this is La La Land versus Lin-Manuel Miranda's quest to EGOT for his Moana song. He has more than a good possibility I think especially if the two La La Land songs split votes.

SHOULD WIN: "How Far I'll Go"
WILL WIN: "City of Stars"
COULD WIN: "How Far I'll Go"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Jackie
• La La Land
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Passengers

As if the Academy voters aren't going to give the score award to the musical film. I think that's a pretty safe bet. If they are feeling adventurous though this would be the best chance to honor Mica Levy's work in Jackie. Or even poor Thomas Newman (Passengers) with his 14 nominations and 0 wins.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Jackie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Allied
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jackie
• La La Land 

People are saying La La Land is a safe bet here, but I know more than a few people who wasn't too impressed (they're crazy). But if that's a more widespread feeling then I would think it'd be between Jackie or Florence Foster Jenkins. Unless they feel they must award Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Beasts) with her 4th win. Light a candle for The Dressmaker.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: Jackie
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Sully

Hacksaw Ridge and Deepwater Horizon were really loud. But La La Land could sweep so...

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Rogue One
• 13 Hours

Someday I'll know the difference. Then again many Oscar voters don't. I'd probably just say La La Land again, but I think this will swing to another film. Arrival or Rogue One perhaps?

SHOULD WIN: Arrival
WILL WIN: Rogue One
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Rogue One
• The Jungle Book
• Doctor Strange
• Deepwater Horizon
• Kubo and the Two Strings

I think if I was making the ballot, these would've been my exact same five films. And yes, I'm thrilled that Kubo made it in since that film used VFX so well. Anyways, this is The Jungle Book's award to lose, but weirder things have happened.

SHOULD WIN: Kubo and the Two Strings
WILL WIN: The Jungle Book
COULD WIN: Doctor Strange

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

• A Man Called Ove
• Star Trek Beyond
• Suicide Squad

Suicide Squad? Really? I would've gladly switched that out with The Dressmaker, Deadpool, or Florence Foster Jenkins. The sad thing is it's probably the frontrunner here too.

SHOULD WIN: Star Trek Beyond
WILL WIN: A Man Called Ove
COULD WIN: Suicide Squad

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Fire at Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• 13th
• O.J.: Made in America

I've only seen the Ava DuVernay's 13th, which I implore everyone to watch. With that said I haven't heard anyone say anything bad about any of these films. Made in America is probably the slight favorite with all of its precursor support, but I still call foul on submitting a 6+ hour miniseries for Oscar consideration.

SHOULD WIN: 13th
WILL WIN: OJ: Made in America
COULD WIN: 13th

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

• Extremis
• 4.1 Miles
• Joe’s Violin
• Watani: My Homeland
• The White Helmets 

I've seen The White Helmets and Extremis since they're both available on Netflix and I meant to see 4.1 Miles and Joe's Violin since they're also available elsewhere online. Without knowing too much about the race, I think The White Helmets might have an edge especially with our current political climate. Or maybe Joe's Violin.

SHOULD WIN: The White Helmet
WILL WIN: The White Helmet
COULD WIN: Joe's Violin

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• Blind Vaysha
• Borrowed Time
• Pear Cider and Cigarettes
• Pearl
• Piper

Having seen only Pearl and Piper which I thought were both good (though not amazing), I have no earthly idea which of these films is the favorite or even who should win. Your guess is as good as mine.

SHOULD WIN: Piper
WILL WIN: Pearl
COULD WIN: Piper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• Ennemis Intérieurs
• La Femme et le TGV
• Silent Nights
• Sing
• Timecode

Saw these last weekend and I think any of them could win for various reasons. My absolute favorite is Timecode which is probably the slightest of them all story-wise, but it's also the most delightful. Sing has a very satisfying arc and some great character work. La Femme et le TGV might attract older voters and it's the only film with a recognizable star (always a plus). The latter two were my least favorites, but they were also the most topical. Ennemis Intérieurs was the better of the two but also the most inert film of the five while Silent Nights is just not good in so many sense.

SHOULD WIN: Timecode
WILL WIN: La Femme et le TGV
COULD WIN: Sing

So where does that all leave me in terms of predictions? I predicted La La Land to walk away with a leading 7 wins including Picture/Director/Actress. With the rest of the wealth shared among a few films namely Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Fences, Arrival, etc. And I think Lion, Hell or Hell Water, and Hidden Figures will walk away with no wins. Let's all check back on Sunday and see how wrong I am!

BAFTA Nominations and Predictions

Currently watching the BAFTA red carpet live stream which means we should be getting spoilerific updates for the actual awards in a couple of hours. But first some quick thoughts and predictions!

Best Film

• Arrival
• I, Daniel Blake
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Best British Film

• American Honey
• Denial
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• I, Daniel Blake
• Notes on Blindness
• Under the Shadow

Just last year, there was no overlap between these two categories. This year there's one film I, Daniel Blake which hasn't made its way here in the US yet. Of course, awards front-runner La La Land is here and leads with 11 nods followed closely by 9 nods for Arrival.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land for Best Film, American Honey for British Film
WILL WIN: La La Land for Best Film, Daniel Blake for British Film

Best Director

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Nocturnal Animals also garnered 9 nods, but without a Best Film nomination. It did get Best Director knocking off a possible nomination for Moonlight's Barry Jenkins. Loach could be a surprise win, but everyone's betting on DGA-winner Chazelle.

SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle

Best Actor

• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Actress

• Amy Adams, Arrival
• Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Natalie Portman, Jackie

Most of these names are Oscar-nominated but the ones that weren't are worth pointing out. The Brits really liked Nocturnal Animals and not so much for Fences so Gyllenhaal replacing Denzel Washington made sense. It's a bit more surprising to see Blunt replace Ruth Negga (both British so that didn't make an impact). The racial optics of both replacement isn't great. FYI, Isabelle Huppert wasn't eligible. Could Garfield surprise as a Brit in the increasingly competitive Actor category?

SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck, Emma Stone

Best Supporting Actor

• Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress

• Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
• Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Viola Davis, Fences

We all know Viola is winning this award, but her film didn't get much love while the others got a lot of love. Supporting Actor could be interesting as well. Ali is the favorite, but how about Globe-winner Taylor-Johnson or home-town favorite Patel and Grant?

SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis
WILL WIN: Hugh Grant, Nicole Kidman

Best Original Screenplay

• Hell or High Water
• I, Daniel Blake
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hidden Figures
• Lion
• Nocturnal Animals

Moonlight is in the Adapted category for the Oscars and just won the Scripter Awards last night. But the safe bet would be Manchester by the Sea (unless La La Land sweeps) for Original and one of Amy's films for Adapted.

SHOULD WIN: Moonlight, Lion
WILL WIN: Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals

Best Film Not in the English Language

• Dheepan
• Julieta
• Mustang
• Son of Saul
• Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary

• 13th
• The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years
• The Eagle Huntress
• Notes on Blindness
• Weiner

Best Animated Film

• Finding Dory
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• Zootropolis

Zootropolis should continue its season-long domination. With Documentary, I have no earthly idea while in Foreign it's 2016 favorite vs. 2017 favorite with Son of Saul and Toni Erdmann. I think Erdmann has momentum though.

SHOULD WIN: Toni Erdmann, 13th, Zootropolis
WILL WIN: Toni Erdman, The Beatles, Zootropolis

Best Cinematography

• Arrival
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Lion
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Editing

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Production Design

• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Costume Design

• Allied
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jackie
• La La Land

Best Make Up & Hair

• Doctor Strange
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Nocturnal Animals
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Music

• Arrival
• Jackie
• La La Land
• Lion
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Sound

• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land

Best Special Visual Effects

• Arrival
• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• The Jungle Book
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

La La Land could easily sweep but there's some strong competition in a few of the categories. Plus someone else will have to win in Visual Effects and Make-Up/Hair (a weird miss for the musical IMO).

WILL WIN: Arrival for Cinematography, La La Land for Editing, Fantastic Beast for Production Design, Florence Foster for Costume, Nocturnal Animals for Make Up/Hair, La La Land for Music, La La Land for Sound, Jungle Book for Visual Effects.

Best British Debut

• The Girl With All the Gifts – Mike Carey (writer), Camille Gatin (producer)
• The Hard Stop – George Amponsah (writer/director/producer), Dionne Walker (writer/producer)
• Notes on Blindness - Peter Middleton (writer/director/producer), James Spinney (writer/director), Jo-Jo Ellison (producer)
• The Pass – John Donnelly (writer), Ben A Williams (director)
• Under the Shadow – Babak Anvari (writer/director), Emily Leo, Oliver Roskill, Lucan Toh (producers)

Best British Short Animation

• The Alan Dimension
• A Love Story
• Tough

Best British Short Film

• Consumed
• Home
• Mouth of Hell
• The Party
• Standby

EE Rising Star Award

• Anya Taylor-Joy
• Laia Costa
• Lucas Hedges
• Ruth Negga
• Tom Holland

I'm fairly ignorant on these British categories so I'll have to plead the fifth when it comes to commenting on them. As for the Rising Star award, could anyone actually beat Spider-Man Tom Holland?

WILL WIN: Notes on Blindness for Britist Debut, The Alan Dimension for Animation Short, The Party for Short Film, and Tom Holland for Rising Star.

La La Land and Meryl Streep Win at Golden Globes

The most important thing to happen tonight at the Golden Globes is Meryl Streep's speech accepting the Cecil B. DeMille Award for Lifetime Achievement. She expertly vilified a certain unnamed president "elect," made an impassioned plea for more empathy, and paid tribute to her "dear departed Princess Leia." Like Streep's filmography, her speech had range, was mostly captivating, and certainly already iconic. Other awards were given, many to a certain Los Angeles-set musical and many more to British actors. Jimmy Fallon, with the exception of the fun opening number, stuck with his usual milquetoast bland schtick with almost anyone else going to the stage tonight displaying why they'd be a better host (Viola Davis, Sunny Pawar, Kristen Wiig/Steven Carrell were my personal favorites). Anyways, onwards...

Best Motion Picture, Drama: Moonlight
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical: La La Land
Best Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Best Actress, Drama: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Emma Stone, La La Land
Best Actor, Drama: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Best Animated Film: Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Film: Elle
Best Screenplay: La La Land
Best Score: La La Land
Best Song: "City of Stars," La La Land

Awards season frontrunner La La Land dominated, picking up a record breaking 7 awards and winning every category it was nominated for, becoming the winningest film in Globes history. Their haul included Best Comedy/Musical and first Globes to director Damien Chazelle and leads Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. The film awards were bookended with surprise wins, the first to Aaron Taylor-Johnson winning Supporting Actor (many thought, myself included, he had no right of being nominated let alone win) and the last to Moonlight for Best Drama Picture (a delightful turn of events). Isabelle Huppert, Casey Affleck, and Davis won acting awards giving their Oscar chances a boost though only Huppert was the only one that needed it (and I guess Taylor-Johnson as well but I still think/hope/pray his nomination/win here is a fluke). Predictions-wise, I think pretty great going 10 of 14 (12 of 14 with alternates). I was certainly happy that La La Land swept and I hope it happens again at the Oscars.

Best TV Series, Drama: The Crown
Best TV Series, Comedy: Atlanta
Best Actress, Drama: Claire Foy, The Crown
Best Actress, Comedy: Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
Best Actor, Drama: Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath
Best Actor, Comedy: Donald Glover, Atlanta
Best Mini-Series or TV Movie: The People vs. OJ Simpson
Best Actress, Mini/TV Movie: Sarah Paulson, The People vs. OJ Simpson
Best Actor, Mini/TV Movie: Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
Best Supporting Actress: Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
Best Supporting Actor: Olivia Colman, The Night Manager

For TV, color me surprised that The Night Manager ended up as the most awarded TV show of the night with 3 wins. In retrospect, it really shouldn't have surprised anyone how much love this show would get from the HFPA (all its leads won including an Olivia Colman win that made me jump for joy). The Crown, Atlanta, and The People vs. OJ Simpson won Best Show honors as well as a key acting win each (Claire Foy, Donald Glover, and Sarah Paulson respectively). First time wins by Foy, Glover and Tracee Ellis Ross were a great sight to see. My predictions wasn't so great at 3 of 11 (6 of 11 with alternates) but in general I think the right people, mostly, were awarded.

To end, I have to again go back to Meryl Streep's speech. It's something that can be easily watched in full. You can do so below, courtesy of HFPA's tweet.

At tonight's #GoldenGlobes we honor Hollywood legend Meryl Streep with the prestigious Cecil B. Demille Award. pic.twitter.com/dxpeCDNXY6

— Golden Globe Awards (@goldenglobes) January 9, 2017

Golden Globes: Predictions and Hopes

My last post was almost four months ago talking about another awards show so I guess it's fine if I just dive right back in the midst of awards season especially with the Golden Globes happening tonight. No extended thoughts on the nominees, but my predictions and hopes are below.

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea

Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Alternate: Barry Jenkins
Should Win: Either one of those would be fine by me!

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight

Will Win: Moonlight
Alternate: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Happy for either of those, but I'm low-key hoping for a LION shocker.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
20th Century Women
Deadpool
La La Land
Florence Foster Jenkins
Sing Street

Will Win: La La Land
Alternate: N/A
Should Win: La La Land! La La Land! La La Land! LA LA LAND!!!

Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Ruth Negga, Loving

Will Win: Natalie Portman (Globes likes the big name!)
Alternate: Isabelle Huppert (Globes like the foreign ladies!)
Should Win: Amy Adams (Globes do whatever they want!)

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will Win: Emma Stone
Alternate: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Stone should really get this, but most of her fellow nominees are great.

Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will Win: Casey Affleck
Alternate: Denzel Washington
Should Win: Viggo Mortensen. Or Andrew Garfield... but for his non-nominated role in SILENCE.

Best Actor, Musical, or Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Will Win: Ryan... Gosling
Alternate: Ryan... Reynolds
Should Win: GOSLING! I like Reynolds but I swear if DEADPOOL crashes the LA LA LAND party, I might have a stroke.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Alternate: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: ALI! Maybe Dev Patel, but only if he shares his award with Sunny Pawar. But really ANYONE BUT Taylor-Johnson please and thanks.

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea

Will Win: Viola Davis
Alternate: Michelle Williams
Should Win: What I really wish is Davis winning in Lead and Williams winning here.

Best Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Alternate: Moonlight
Should Win: Again, both films are worthy and will likely get their respective Oscars so let's blow it up a bit here and say LA LA LAND.

Best Foreign Language Film
Divines, France
Elle, France
Neruda, Chile
The Salesman, Iran/France
Toni Erdmann, Germany

Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Alternate: Elle
Should Win: Unfortnately I haven't seen any of these to make a judgment call.

Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

Will Win: Zootopia
Alternate: Moana
Should Win: A strong year for the medium that started out with a bang with ZOOTOPIA and it should be rewarded thusly.

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Will Win: The guys who wrote Broadway's Dear Evan Hansen (City of Stars)
Alternate: The guy who wrote Broadway's Hamilton (How Far I'll Go)
Should Win: I would be VERY sad if one of those songs don't win.

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Lion
La La Land
Moonlight

Will Win: La La Land
Alternate: Not sure...
Should Win: Hoping for a big night for this movie!

Best TV Series, Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

Will Win: Game of Thrones
Alternate: The Crown
Should Win: Ask me at different time and I can see myself (and the HFPA) say any of these, but I'll say GAME OF THRONES.

Best Actress, Drama
Catriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Will Win: I have no idea actually... Claire Foy?
Alternate: Same, um... Evan Rachel Wood?
Should Win: Russell, because see Russian comment below. But Ryder for the nostalgia.

Best Actor, Drama
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath

Will Win: Rami Malek
Alternate: Matthew Rhys
Should Win: We're letting the Russians win elsewhere, so let's give it up for RHYS!

Best TV Series, Musical or Comedy
Atlanta
Black-ish
Mozart in the Jungle
Transparent
Veep

Will Win: Veep
Alternate: Mozart in the Jungle
Should Win: I think this election year is giving me PTSD with VEEP so I would've voted for BLACK-ISH probably.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, but can we first just look at how awesome this list of nominees is?
Alternate: Sarah Jessica Parker?
Should Win: Rooting for a first-time winner... Issa Rae!

Best Actor, Musical, or Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Will Win: Gael Garcia Bernal
Alternate: Donald Glover
Should Win: Since Bernal won last year, I'd say Glover this time around.

Best Limited Series or TV Movie
American Crime
The Dresser
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People v. O.J. Simpson

Will Win: The People v. OJ Simpson
Alternate: N/A
Should Win: PEOPLE V. OJ certainly, but I do wish NIGHT MANAGER got its due.

Best Actress, Limited Series or TV Movie
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation

Will Win: Sarah Paulson
Alternate: N/A
Should Win: PAULSON HAS GOT THIS.

Best Actor, Limited Series or TV Movie
Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All The Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson

Will Win: Courtney B. Vance
Alternate: Tom Hiddleston
Should win: Either one of those would be good with me, but I'm low-key itching for Turturro.

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People v. O.J. Simpson

Will Win: Sterling K. Brown
Alternate: John Lithgow
Should Win: BROWN has got this easily.

Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld

Will Win: Thandie Newton
Alternate: Lena Headey
Should Win: Both were VERY good (very deadly) this past season. But I would love for Colman to grab this in a shocker.

Let's see how wrong I am tonight!