Trying My Luck: Oscar Nomination Predictions

It's Friday the 13th and while I don't really believe this particular date is more unlucky than others, I find it somewhat chuckle-worthy that today was the deadline for Oscar ballots. Certainly there will be those lucky few to make the Oscar shortlist while others not so much. Sometimes the Oscar race feels like a roll of a die, doesn't it? What if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close was released a few months before? What if The Help didn't make all of that money in the box office? What if Shame received an R-rating? What if The Iron Lady wasn't released this year? What if The Social Network won last year?

Those what ifs questions are fun to ask, but ultimately useless. Voters are bombarded by so many different things from critic top ten lists to the various organizations giving out their own accolades. Not to mention the fact that each voter has their own individual taste and biases. As Andrew eloquently points out, Oscar voters are people, too.

With that said, this is more me making my peace with the whole circus of it all before we get the nominations in about ten days time. I don't usually publicly post my Oscar nomination predictions, but in the spirit of this year's season's unpredictability, I'll chime in with the top 8 categories after the jump...

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse

Inner monologue: I want to predict Tree of Life, but it's just the kind of film that too many people don't get. And why 8 nominees? No clue, but there'll definitely have less than 10 this year.

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight in paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Inner monologue: I pretty much copied the DGA nominations, but decided that they like Spielberg more than Fincher. Sound assumption right?

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Inner monologue: What am I doing leaving off Leonardo DiCaprio? His film/performance is tailor-made for an Oscar nomination. And instead Oldman/Fassbender? What am I smoking?

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Inner monologue: Streep and Davis are locked, but the rest is wishy washy even Williams who seems to be losing steam (my imagination) down the stretch. No young ingenue? Should I have put Mara over Theron or Close?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Inner monologue: This is the free-for-all category esp. with the two-man race of Plummer and Brooks. Any three actors can join them.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Ostavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Inner monologue: The Academy just isn't that cool to vote for an Apatow-produced Wiig-written character. Or say I'm telling myself. I wanted to put her or Redgrave though.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Inner monologue: As good as any guess I think. Am I understimating Win Win? Or maybe Rango?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

Inner monologue: I went with the WGA nominees which is terribly pedestrian of me. Maybe Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as an alternate to Dragon Tattoo? I don't know.