Oscar Thoughts and Predictions

It's been a particularly weird awards season... for me. In spite of liking a lot of the nominees this year and several key races being quite in flux still, I've felt far removed to the season as a whole. Yes, I've seen many of the movies and know who generally won the precursors, but the thought of it all gives me a mental shrug rather than excitement. Perhaps it's the deteriorating state of the world subconsciously eating my brain? Anyways, onwards...

Best Picture and Best Director

It's a fight between the heavy frontrunner One Battle After Another (sweeping most key precursors) and the surging people's favorite Sinners (record breaking nomination tally, SAG Ensemble winner) in Picture while DGA winner Paul Thomas Anderson will mostly likely finally get his flowers. But if his film's surge is real, could Ryan Coogler upset?

Prediction: While the Sinners surge IS real, I'm still going to predict both Paul Thomas Anderson and his film One Battle After Another for the win. 

If I had a ballot: Thankfully both top Oscar choices in Picture are actually my top two of the nominees so I would be happy for either one and if forced to, I'd pick Sinners. That said, I would also vote for Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director.

Best Lead Actress and Actor

Jessie Buckley is winning. Now that that's out of the way, let's talk Actor. Timothée Chalamet was riding high early on in spite of a seemingly fairly competitive field. But late losses at the BAFTA and SAG (crucially during Oscar voting window) have many thinking he will come up empty again in favor of another hot young actor Michael B. Jordan. Also, no, Chalamet's careless comments about opera and ballet have very little, or no, impact whatsoever.

Prediction: Obviously, Jessie Buckley for Actress. And... Michael B. Jordan for Actor. If Chalamet wins, it'll be a moment though and I'd like to see it. If he doesn't, I fear he might have to wait awhile.

If I had a ballot: Like everyone else, my vote goes to Jessie Buckley (been a fan since Wild Rose). For actor, my write-in pick would've been Dylan O'Brien in Twinless, but out of the actual nominees, you'd think I'd choose another twin-movie, but instead I'm writing in Timothée Chalamet.

Best Supporting Actress and Actor

We've had too many years where a performer would sweep one or both of these awards (last year was particularly galling in this regard). So I'm happy this year feels like a real free-for-all. SAG winner Amy Madigan, BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku and Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor could win. Sean Penn seems to be the slight frontrunner in the other category by surprisingly winning both BAFTA and SAG (with nary a campaign). But don't discount Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård, Critics Choice winner Jacob Elordi and well-liked veterans Benicio Del Toro and Delroy Lindo.

Prediction: I'm going to match the SAG here with my predicting Amy Madigan and Sean Penn, both playing the kind of flashy villain role that's catnip in these categories. 

If I had a ballot: I truly love what Madigan did in her movie, but Wunmi Mosaku is the easy choice here. For the men, I'm going with Jacob Elordi whose Frankenstein's Monster is quite revelatory.

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

You know my awards season vibe is off when I say I don't even know what's happening in this category. After a quick search, I should've guessed it's the two BP favorites as the frontrunners in both. I'd be particularly happy for Ryan Coogler since if his film doesn't win BP, this would garner him his Oscar win!

Prediction: Seems like a no-brainer for One Battle After Another in Adapted Screenplay and Sinners in Original.

If I had a ballot: I already mentioned how both of those films are my top 2 in Picture. And yet, I do love to spread the wealth. My picks would be Hamnet and It Was Just an Accident. No tangible reason other than vibes honestly.

Best International Feature and Documentary Feature

The Academy getting more international is well-evidenced in the number of multiple nominations the International Feature nominees got this year led by 9 nods for Sentimental Values. In fact, 4 of the 5 are Cannes winners with the Palme d'Or going It Was Just An Accident. The Secret Agent nabbed Best Director and Actor there. All three could legitimately win. I wished I had more commentary for Documentary, but I did love the two I saw (The Perfect Neighbor and Come See Me in the Good Light).

Prediction: I think the Brazilian block is strong and will lift The Secret Agent to a win, but Sentimental Values is probably my close alternate because it got all those nominations. For Documentary, I have no idea... probably Mr. Nobody Against Putin?

If I had a ballot: I prefer Sirât over the two frontrunners and liked It Was Just An Accident slightly more even so that'd be my pick. I'd go with Come See Me in the Good Light for Documentary, because I have to support gays always.

Best Animated Feature and Original Song

I put these two categories together because we live in a Kpop Demon Hunters world and we should all count our lucky stars this monocultural hit graced us with its presence this past year. Biggest movie on Netflix ever, Billboards chart topper, Grammy winner, social media viral hit and soon to be golden at the Oscars. Yes, sure Zootopia 2 was actually kinda great too and made gazillion dollars and that song/performance in Sinners was one of my favorite cinematic moments. But there's no doubt.

Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters wins Animated Feature and their song "Golden" wins Original Song.

If I had a ballot: We all need to protect the honmoon even harder now so my prediction is also my ballot picks.

Best Editing and Best Casting

Pairing one of the stronger Picture predictors (Editing) with the newest Oscar category in years (Casting) because well it's yet another One Battle After Another vs. Sinners. Both won ACE and both have starry, expansive casts, with the latter being a slight favorite for Casting since I wonder if people would equate this to an Ensemble prize (and it won SAG Ensemble).

Prediction: Sinners is winning the inaugural Casting trophy while One Battle After Another is going to win Editing. If Sinners does though, it will hint at Picture winner! 

If I had a ballot: I'm sticking with One Battle After Another for Editing. However, my ballot goes to The Secret Agent for Casting. Tânia Maria's presence alone makes it an easy pick. She's SO good in the movie.

Best Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hair

We're in the Frankenstein portion of the Oscars! No, but really, Guillermo del Toro did his masterful thing again and I'm still shocked he was left off Best Director. That said, a likely 3-Oscar win wouldn't be too shabby at all.

Prediction: Frankenstein sweeps these three below-the-line categories.

If I had a ballot: Frankenstein would ALSO be my pick for Makeup and Hair and Production Design. But I am picking Sinners for Costumes. 

Best Cinematography and Original Score

And we're back to the two top dogs with both Sinners and One Battle After Another as the two favorites in both categories. Precursors say that One Battle edges in Cinematography and Sinners edges in Score. Let's see!

Prediction: No use going differently than what the precursors say.

If I had a ballot: I would put down One Battle After Another for both awards. In fact, I would've easily given the Score trophy to Sinners, but Jonny Greenwood needs his first Academy Award more than 2-time Oscar winner Ludwig Göransson.

Best Visual Effects and Sound

I'm quickly losing steam here, but I bet the Academy will also be very lazy in their choices here. Look for Avatar: Fire and Ash (pleasantly shocked they left this off Picture) and F1 (unfortunately they replaced it with this move) to pick up wins.

Prediction: My excitement is low for both movies, but I don't totally begrudge them on their eventual wins here. These specific crafts (and the people responsible for them) did hard work.

If I had a ballot: The vampire-filled Sinners for Visual Effect and the rave-filled Sirât for Sound for me.

Best Short Films

I've actually since a majority of these (thanks internet and streaming sites)--3 of the Documentary Shorts, 4 of the Animated Shorts, and 3 of the Live Action shorts. Does that give me the edge in prediction. Hell no.

Prediction: A Friend of Dorothy (Live Action), Butterfly (Animated), All the Empty Rooms (Documentary)

If I had a ballot: A Friend of Dorothy (Live Action), The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Animated), All the Empty Rooms (Documentary)

Now, let's see how it all stacked up...

Predictions

One Battle After Another - 6
Sinners - 4
Frankenstein - 3
KPop Demon Hunters - 2
Hamnet
Weapons
The Secret Agent
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
A Friend of Dorothy
Butterfly
All the Empty Rooms

It definitely feels right for One Battle and Sinners to get 10 wins total. There's still the question of which one will get the most though.

If I had a ballot
Sinners - 4
One Battle After Another - 4
Frankenstein - 3
Hamnet - 2
It Was Just An Accident - 2
KPop Demon Hunters - 2
Marty Supreme
Come See Me in the Good Light
The Secret Agent
Sirât 
A Friend of Dorothy
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
All the Empty Rooms

Not too shocking that my picks still skewed towards the two frontrunners but with a little more wealth spreading as is my wont. 

Oscars Thoughts and Predictions

Surprise nominations, award bodies giving differing results, the Emilia Pérez scandal and, of course, the Los Angeles fires--all of it combined to give us one atypical awards season. Does any film have momentum? Are the acting awards really sewn up? Which film will get the most nomination and could it really be different from Best Picture? Who the heck knows what's winning Original Screenplay? Let's dig in!

Best Picture and Best Director

It's totally going to be PGA winner Anora and DGA winner Sean Baker respectively. Wait, no BAFTA-winner Brady Corbet is getting Director. Oh, but wait SAG Ensemble (and BAFTA-winning) Conclave will probably win. Just kidding Emilia Pérez did get the most nominations, so... that's a thing that happened.

Prediction: My thinking is that the Academy will want to award Sean Baker and thus gives him Director, but will revert to the mean with a Conclave Best Picture win.

If I had a ballot: I would also give the Director win to Sean Baker since I like his movie a lot (and have loved his other films in the past). But for Best Picture, my heart belongs to those two singing lesbian witches. Let's go Wicked!

Best Lead Actress and Actor

For awhile there, Adrien Brody and Demi Moore had this in the bag. And they can so very easily win here still. Both have easy narratives (his a comeback of sorts, hers the popular veteran actress makes good). Predict someone else at your peril. AND YET... Mikey Madison won both the BAFTA and Spirit Awards (over very strong competition) and Timothée Chalamet got the SAG.

Prediction: I'm going with Demi Moore and Adrien Brody. They're not a lock though and so a Mikey/Timmy "upset" wouldn't shock me.

If I had a ballot: There's really no bad winner in Actress (yes, even she who must not be named), but I'd like to see "Oscar winner" next to Demi Moore's name. That's also why I am picking Timothée Chalamet on the men's side. Though if Sebastian Stan had been nominated for A Different Man, my answer would be different.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Look, I really like Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña. And they gave award-deserving performances. I don't even mind THAT much (but I do a little) that they are clearly committing category fraud. But to have that AND to sweep ALL the awards? It's just not a good feeling. The only possible crack is whether or not the Saldaña gets (unfairly) punished for the Emilia Pérez brouhaha.

Prediction: Zoe Saldaña is too popular and well-liked for that to happen so she's going to win. Kieran Culkin is locked and loaded as well.

If I had a ballot: I think if Culkin/Saldaña had lost somewhere, I'd be fine voting for them to win here, but my need for some variety has me picking Yura Borisov (a true breakout supporting performance) and Ariana Grande (okay another co-lead but she's hilarious in a movie I loved).

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Seems like things have been coalescing for Conclave in Adapted Screenplay so that's definitely the one to beat there even with Nickel Boys getting the WGA. For Original Screenplay, Anora is the slight favorite but will voters think they'd want to award another small film (like BAFTA winner A Real Pain or Cannes winner The Substance)?

Prediction: I'll say Conclave and Anora respectively. But the latter losing here wouldn't surprise me too much, but if it does happen, its Best Picture chance got that much more unsure.

If I had a ballot: Personally, I thought Jesse Eisenberg's script for A Real Pain is truly one of the best original screenplays this year. And with Wicked not nominated for Adapted, my vote for the other category goes to the experimental Nickel Boys.

Best International and Animated Features

Emilia Pérez is the front-runner, but with the scandal it has taken quite a beating to the point that many seem to think I'm Still Here has this sewn up. Though imagine an alternate universe where All We Imagine As Light had been nominated. Was rooting for Kneecap myself. Then there's Animated where it really is a two-horse race between The Wild Robot and Flow. Both films are well-liked and got other nominations. Will the Academy's international bent sway them toward the smaller Latvian film though?

Prediction: I'll finally zag and predict the non-frontrunner I'm Still Here because I do think the scandal really hurt Emilia Pérez. Meanwhile, The Wild Robot will win over Flow.

If I had a ballot: My picks here are the same as my prediction: I'm Still Here and The Wild Robot. Hey, both made me cry.

 Best Original Score and Song

This one is so easy, because the Academy totally nominated Challengers for both so that should and will win. Oh, no, they didn't? Well at least they didn't nominate Diane Warren for the millionth time in a row. Oh, they did, huh? Was there at least a catchy tune like last year's runner-up (but true winner) "I'm Just Ken" from Barbie? No? Well, shit.

Prediction: The Brutalist should handily win Score especially without Dune: Part Two or Challengers in the mix. Meanwhile "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez is the likely winner. But with a non-banner year for song nominees, maybe we finally give it to Warren and then stop nominating her for at least five years?

If I had a ballot: I would write-in Challengers for both. Actually, no, I'd write-in "Kiss the Sky" from The Wild Robot in Song. But if I must pick an actual nominee, I'll go with The Brutalist score and... "Like A Bird" from Sing Sing, I guess?

Best Production and Costume Designs

The thought here is that Wicked is the front-runner for both. But fellow CDG/ADG winners Nosferatu and Conclave has kept up the competition all season long and one or both can win especially if some think Wicked will have its chances again next year.

Prediction: Wicked will double up here!

If I had a ballot: Wicked for both as well!

Best Editing, Cinematography and Makeup/Hair

There's the belief that Picture will be won by whoever wins Editing so I guess it's down to Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave. Cinematography is interesting since you'd expect Best Picture nominees The Brutalist or Dune: Part Two would win over the others, but Ed Lachman (Maria) is beloved and has zero Oscars to his name. Is it time? Finally, it's Wicked vs. The Substance for Makeup/Hair in a particularly strong field.

Prediction: Since I think Conclave wins Best Picture, it will win Editing. Meanwhile the Academy will be sentimental and give Cinematography to Lachman for Maria. And in honor of Monstro Elisasue, The Substance gets Makeup/Hair.

If I had a ballot: Conclave for Editing, The Brutalist for Cinematography (that movie was meant for the big screen), and A Different Man for Makeup/Hair.

Best Sound Achievement and Visual Effects

The Wild Robot getting into Sound is exciting, but can Dune: Part Two repeat especially against all the musicals it's nominated against? And in Visual Effects, can Dune: Part Two also repeat especially against a xenomorph and 3 movies (!) with monkeys?

Prediction: I think the Academy will show Dune: Part Two some (repeat) love for both categories after hopefully feeling ashamed for snubbing director Denis Villeneuve again.

If I had a ballot: Honestly, I would also pick Dune: Part Two for both.

Best Documentary and Best Animated Short

You may be wondering why I paired up these two categories. Simple, between the two of them, I've seen just one film (the documentary Sugarcane) so I don't have much to say here other than...

Prediction: I hear No Other Land and Wander to Wonder are the slight consensus picks though I do have my doubts the Academy has the courage to go for the first film. But I wouldn't even know what's the alternative.

If I had a ballot: Well, I would've actually seen all the movies and not vote blindly. So by default, I'll just repeat and say No Other Land and Wander to Wonder.

Best Live Action and Documentary Shorts

My screening of these two categories are barely better than the previous two categories so my commentary will be limited. The key question here is whether or not voters will want to be political or escapist this year.

Prediction: I predict that they'll go escapist and give Netflix a double win with Anuja and The Only Girl in the Orchestra for Live Action and Documentary short respectively.

If I had a ballot: Meanwhile, I'm going political, because why not? A Lien and Incident would be my picks.

Now, some quick tally...

Predictions
Conclave - 3
Anora - 2
The Substance - 2
The Brutalist - 2
Emilia Pérez - 2
Wicked - 2
Dune: Part Two - 2
A Real Pain
I'm Still Here
The Wild Robot
Maria
No Other Land
Wander to Wonder
Anuja
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

And now that I'm looking at this tally, I'm pretty sure I am very wrong. There's spreading the wealth and then there's 6 (!) Best Picture nominees getting exactly 2 wins each while the BP winner gets just 3 awards. That'd certainly be a fitting end to this crazy season.

If I had a ballot
Wicked - 4
Anora - 2
The Brutalist - 2
Dune: Part Two - 2
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
A Real Pain
Nickle Boys
I'm Still Here
No Other Land
The Wild Robot
Sing Sing
Conclave
A Different Man
A Lien
Wander to Wonder
Incident

My own ballot went the "spread the wealth" route as well. Interestingly, I gave all the Best Picture nominees at least one win with the exception of Emilia Pérez which, unlike many people, I actually like. Which just goes to show you the strength of this year's nominees. Even if none of them are Challengers... or last year's also not-nominated All of Us Strangers (nope, not over it).

Oscars Should/Will Win

The film year of Barbenheimer will come to an official close tonight at the Oscars where both films seem assured to win--one more than the other obviously as is obvious from my predictions below.

As per my own tradition now, I've written down my #Oscars predictions to keep myself honest. Should be a very good night for OPPENHEIMER. pic.twitter.com/IpzxARd7C6

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) March 10, 2024

So yeah Oppenheimer wins 8 Oscars and I think I'm actually being conservative. It can easily reach double digits in a real sweep which is a strong possibility. The acting awards, save for Best Actress, is pretty much set in stone and I do think they will go with Gladstone. But speaking of horse races, does anyone REALLY know who's going to win Visual Effects?

I will be quite happy and satisfied when Oppenheimer wins, but if I had my own ballot, Barbenheimer shifts towards the delectable pink movie that was high risk and high reward this year.

Best Picture: Barbie
Best Director: Chrstopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Lead Actor: Colman Domingo, Rustin
Best Lead Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay: Past Lives
Best Adapted Screenplay: Barbie
Best International Feature: Perfect Days
Best Documentary: The Eternal Memory
Best Animated Film: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Original Song: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie
Best Editing: Oppenheimer
Best Production Design: Barbie
Best Cinematography: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Costume Design: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hair: Poor Things
Best Sound Achievement: Oppenheimer
Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Animated Short: Nine-Five Senses
Best Documentary Short: Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Truthfully I really liked a lot of films nominated this year (though All of Us Strangers and Origin were absolutely robbed), which reflects my general "share the wealth" mentality this year with my own ballot. Yes, Barbie came out ahead, but hardly a sweep.

Regardless, I think we're all just super excited about "I'm Just Ken" being sung by Gosling on stage. And if you're not, well, you're still kenough.

Oscars Should/Will Win

 One can't help but feel optimistic this year regarding the Oscars. After all, it can't get worse than last year (with the slap and giving out awards before the show), right? Everything Everywhere All At Once, my favorite film of the year (and the decade so far?), is the seemingly beloved frontrunner. And people actually went out to theaters to see movies this year AND the Academy recognized some of those popular (and actually good?) films!

Plus Rihanna is back and is going to perform! There's going to be a super fun Tollywood number! And in the age of groupthink and numerous voting groups, there are shockingly volatile categories and genuinely close races still including 3 of the acting awards!

So grab those everything bagels and check out my predictions for the big night...

Might as well post my #Oscars predictions to keep myself honest, but it's not easy. There are some real races this year! pic.twitter.com/pldy08GSeo

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) March 12, 2023

I'm going conservative for the presumed favorite with Everything Everywhere just winning 4 awards and surprisingly, even to me as I filled it out, tying with Elvis. I also predict All Quiet to win multiple awards as the general tone of my predictions is... share the wealth. Even though my heart of hearts is hoping, praying, wishing for a true sweep year for the Daniels' epic movie.

Speaking of, let's go ahead and take a look at my "should wins" aka my personal ballot...

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Lead Actor: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Lead Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actress: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Animated Film: Turning Red
Best Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
Best International Feature: Close
Best Documentary: Navalny
Best Original Score: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Original Song: “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Editing: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Production Design: Babylon
Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Costume Design: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Makeup and Hair: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Sound Achievement: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Visual Effects: The Batman
Best Live Action Short: The Red Suitcase
Best Animated Short: My Year of Dicks
Best Documentary Short: The Martha Mitchell Effect

A true sweep for Everything Everywhere getting my vote for every category where it's nominated (10) with All Quiet the only other film getting multiple wins (even though I didn't give it International Film). Went queer on that one, went Asian on animated and went with dicks on animated short. Essentially, I voted for me, myself and I.

Oscars Should/Will Win

Even though last year's award season was a full month longer than this one, it somehow felt less dragged out than this one, didn't it? Perhaps it's because we actually got several on-air, in-person awards and events leading up to tonight.

Then there's the absolute dumb-ass decision to relegate 8 categories for a pre-show ceremony to be edited back into the main show as well as plenty of questionable comments from this year's producers and those in charge clearly displaying a lack of understanding why people watch the Oscars. The self-sabotage and disrespect is unbelievably astonishing. But hey maybe they will surprise us.

So before we get Regina Hall, Wanda Sykes and Amy Schumer to emcee us into another Oscar night, how about some predictions...

Happy #Oscars Day! To keep myself honest, here are my predictions. Definitely did not overthink anything this year. Who has that energy? pic.twitter.com/s3iLJKICGH

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) March 27, 2022

Yes, I'm predicting a big night for The Power of the Dog (and Campion) in spite of the very real CODA surge. Dune should have a fine multi-win night as well. Thrice-nominated Flee will sadly walk home empty-handed as will eventually EGOT-bound Lin-Manuel Miranda while Chastain will finally nab that elusive win in the night's most competitive and unpredictable category. I sound SO sure of myself don't I?

But here's something easier and more fun, my "should wins" aka my personal ballot...

Best Picture: The Power of the Dog
Best Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Lead Actor: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick... Boom!
Best Lead Actress: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Animated Film: The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Lost Daughter
Best International Feature: Drive My Car
Best Documentary: Flee
Best Original Score: The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song: “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
Best Editing: Tick, Tick... Boom!
Best Production Design: Dune
Best Cinematography: Dune
Best Costume Design: Dune
Best Makeup and Hair: Cruella
Best Sound Achievement: Dune
Best Visual Effects: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye
Best Animated Short: Robin Robin
Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball

Looks like I gave my top 2 favorite Best Picture nominees (Power of the Dog and Dune) 4 wins each plus a couple of wins each for should've been Best Picture-nominated Tick, Tick... Boom! and The Lost Daughter. And opposite of what I predicted, I did give Flee a win and Lin-Manuel Miranda his EGOT. If only I had the power!

Oscars Should Win/Will Win

Stop me if you're heard this before: It's been a very strange year for films and thus Oscars. Of course it was with the pandemic, the postponement of films, the increased reliance on streaming and extending awards season/eligibility through 2021. But alas, we reach the end with the Academy Awards tonight. 

In a lot of ways, the show and some of the awards should prove interesting and even historic. Looking forward to it. I already tweeted my predictions, which you can see here.

Literally wrote down my #Oscars predictions this year. So now y'all have receipts when I fail. pic.twitter.com/v2YbKTcEc9

— Ryan @🏠 (@sortathatguy) April 24, 2021

I'm predicting a big night for Nomadland and no big surprises elsewhere. The latter doesn't usually happen though so we'll see which ones I get wrong. And below are my "should wins" aka my personal ballot...

Best Picture: Sound of Metal
Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Best Lead Actor: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Best Lead Actress: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Best Supporting Actor: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yun-jung, Minari
Best Animated Film: Wolfwalkers
Best Original Screenplay: Sound of Metal
Best Adapted Screenplay: One Night in Miami
Best International Feature: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Best Documentary: My October Teacher
Best Original Score: Minari
Best Original Song: "Husavik," Eurovision
Best Editing: Sound of Metal
Best Production Design: The Father
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Costume Design: Mulan
Best Makeup and Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Sound Achievement: Sound of Metal
Best Visual Effects: Love and Monsters
Best Live Action Short: The Present
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Documentary Short: Do Not Split

Apart from giving Sound of Metal, my favorite film of the lot, 6 wins, I pretty much spread the wealth. How many of these will actually win? Pretty sure I can only count on 1-2.

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

Every awards season has its own unique tone and this one was surprisingly... tame. Perhaps its the shorter and more condensed season giving people less time to marinate on things. Or perhaps it's the odd lock-step of acting wins which everyone seems to be fine with in their inevitable road to the Oscars. Or maybe it's because the top two films vying for the top prize are both pretty damn great with not much to negatively campaign about them. Or we're all just trying to get through an increasingly awful state of reality and staying (relatively) positive over things like the Oscars might just be a defense mechanism. Who knows? It's been nice. Onwards to my thoughts and predictions...

BEST PICTURE

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

The big shock here is the inclusion of Joker and its leading nomination count. And yet it's made the most out of all nominees, people won't stop talking about, and it did win at the Venice Film Festival. The early story of the season is that this was going to be Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time, because legendary directors doing the kind of films the Academy loves seem to make sense. But 1917 is the war movie du jour with its impeccable technical wizadry and is peaking at the perfect time. Speaking of peaking, Parasite is THE movie of the year and it's the one movie everyone (EVERYONE) seems to agree on. I hope the Academy makes history and picks it.

PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: It was always a longshot but The Farewell is my favorite movie of the year and should've been here. It was Knives Out that probably just missed though.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Todd Phillips, Joker
• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Okay, when I said this awards season has been relatively tame, I guess I was mostly talking about the general resigned mood at the end. But let's not forget, or gloss over, that yet again we have an all-male Director line-up when Greta Gerwig and Lulu Wang and so many other women did amazing work this year. I was also pissed that DGA-nominated Taika Waititi was pushed aside for Phillips. Anyways, this is Mendes vs. Joon Ho. Would be a good choice regardless.

PREDICTION: Sam Mendes
ALTERNATE: Bong Joon Ho
FINAL WORD: I said this last year and I'll say it again this year... maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? It's getting old.

BEST ACTRESS

• Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
• Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
• Charlize Theron, Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger, Judy

When Zellweger won last night at the Spirit Awards, I was thinking how insane it is that any one actor (let alone four this year) would practically sweep ALL the awards in a single year. That should NOT be possible with the sheer amount of amazing talent and performances out there. And I LIKE Zellweger's Judy and think she'd make a great Oscar winner. But to get EVERY award when Ronan is doing yet-again stupendous things or when Lupita Nyong'o or Elisabeth Moss or Alfre Woodard or Awkwafina weren't even nominated. It's ridiculous.

PREDICTION: Renee Zellweger
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan
FINAL WORD: I'm still shocked/not shocked about Nyong'o's snub. Do better.

BEST ACTOR

• Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver, Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
• Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Phoenix is the clear frontrunner here and as much as I don't like his film, I'm not too disturbed by him winning his 1st Oscar. I can pretend it's for Her or The Master. In any other year, especially if he hadn't won already, DiCaprio would likely be cleaning up. First nominations for Banderas and Pryce are good things! That said, I'm sad Taron Egerton and Eddie Murphy couldn't break through. Egerton's "snub" particularly hurts especially after Rami Malek actually won an Oscar the previous year for a worse version of similar films and performances.

PREDICTION: Joaquin Phoenix
ALTERNATE: Adam Driver
FINAL WORD: I'm already thinking about next year. I hope Anthony Ramos for In the Heights makes it in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern, Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
• Florence Pugh, Little Women
• Margot Robbie, Bombshell

This category is so dumb. First of all Jennifer Lopez and Zhao Shuzhen should've been no-brainers here and yet. Thankfully Lopez kicked ass at the Super Bowl last weeked and Shuzhen kicked ass at the Spirit Awards last night. Dern is the overwhelming favorite here and I love her and it's great that she'll finally have an Oscar, but this role isn't really "sweeping all awards" worthy. The only one here (okay, I haven't seen Richard Jewell) that feels like a worthy nomination/win is the breakout Pugh.

PREDICTION: Laura Dern
ALTERNATE: Scarlett Johansson
FINAL WORD: Forgot to mention, it's great that Johansson finally got her first (and second) Oscar nomination this year. She deserves both of them. But the optics (with Erivo as a slave as the only POC nomination) aren't great.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
• Al Pacino, The Irishman
• Joe Pesci, The Irishman
• Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

These were pretty much the five that everyone predicted throughout the season with Tracy Letts and Willem Dafoe probably in the long list. The big hope for a Parasite acting nomination was here for Sang Kang Ho, but the category is just full of Oscar winners. The lone nominee who hasn't won an Oscar acting award is Brad Pitt (but he has won non-acting ones) and he's the one to beat. It's pretty much a done deal actually.

PREDICTION: Brad Pitt
ALTERNATE: Brad Pitt.... seriously.
FINAL WORD: Do we buy that Brad's role is actually supporting? I don't.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• The Two Popes

It's a few Best Picture nominees plus The Two Popes. Truly wish they found room for Hustlers or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Or to be honest, Avengers Endgame if they had to give it to a comic book movie. In any case, this is Waititi's award to lose (he won WGA), but Gerwig could be a formidable alternate. If either won, I'd be happy.

PREDICTION: Jojo Rabbit
ALTERNATE: Little Women
FINAL WORD: Can we just have a tie? Think of their joint speech!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Knives Out
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

This is a very interesting race. Everyone thought Tarantino would walk away with this award all season and he did win Critics Choice/Golden Globe. But Baumbach has been the indie darling and recently won the Spirit Awards and Joon Ho surprisingly came out on top at the WGA. And everyone seems to love Knives Out. I AM shocked 1917 made it in at least over The Farewell, Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, etc.

PREDICTION: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE: Marriage Story
FINAL WORD: I'm not predicting Parasite, but if it wins here (and it has a strong chance), then Best Picture might be in the bag as well.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• Corpus Christi
• Honeyland
• Les Miserables
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite

As I previously mention, Parasite has been the movie of the year. It's going to win here. There's no doubt. I think there'll be riots if it doesn't win. Honeyland is apparently the first documentary to be nominated here?

PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: If it doesn't win, the world will end
FINAL WORD: France didn't pick Portrait of a Lady on a Fire. And now we have to wait forever (next week) to see it. GO PARASITE!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
• I Lost My Body
• Klaus
• Missing Link
• Toy Story 4

What a weird year! No room for the highest-grossing animated film of all time (Frozen 2)? Or critically-acclaimed Weathering with You? Anyways, other than The Hidden World, the other films have won various awards this season keeping this awards in flux. Would Disney power Toy Story 4 to a win? Would they finally give Laika an awards (for Missing Link)? How about Netflix's two audacious offerings? We'll see!

PREDICTION: Toy Story 4
ALTERNATE: Missing Link
FINAL WORD: My sentimental favorite is How to Train Your Dragon. It hasn't won one! And as much as I'd love Laika to win one as a studio, Missing Link has been my least favorite of their output.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• The Irishman
• Joker
• The Lighthouse
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Lots of beautifully-made films here. I think ASC winner Roger Deakins will get his 2nd Oscar this year especially with so many people in love with 1917's technical prowess. The nod with The Lighthouse is inspired.

PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: The Irishman
FINAL WORD: Parasite, Ad Astra, and Ford v. Ferrari were likely in their longlist.

BEST FILM EDITING

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Parasite

Parasite's inclusion here signals strong support for the film and with its ACE Eddies win, it's the unlikely frontrunner especially with 1917 not nominated here.

PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: Joker
FINAL WORD: Remember when Bohemian Rhapsody won last year. The darkest timeline.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

Apparently, the Academy only saw like 12 films this year. ANYWAYS, the ADG Awards went to Parasite and Once Upon a Time. And it's going to be either one of those two and I'm leaning towards the latter because well... Old Hollywood and all.

PREDICTION: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE: Parasite
FINAL WORD: But that Parasite house though.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I screamed on Oscar nomination morning when Dolemite is My Name was left out. I was also holding out hope for Downton Abbey here or more unlikely, Avengers Endgame. And to be honest, Hustlers should've been here for Jennifer Lopez's fur alone. As for the winner, who knows? CDG gave it to two films not nominated and Jojo Rabbit while the BAFTAs went with Little Women. And still the other films might be more to Hollywood's tastes. So?

PREDICTION: Jojo Rabbit
ALTERNATE: Little Women
FINAL WORD: No, but really what disrespect to Ruth E. Carter.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Avengers Endgame
• The Irishman
• 1917
• The Lion King
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I can't believe the de-aging of The Irishman made it here because it was SO DAMN DISTRACTING. I'm also shocked that 1917 made it in, because its effects actually weren't too showy? I do wish Avengers get this. How can you not give the highest grossing film of all time any Oscars?

PREDICTION: Avengers Endgame
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: Imagine if Cats had been nominated? The fact that it was even included in the long list was HILARIOUS and ridiculous.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

• Bombshell
• Joker
• Judy
• Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
• 1917

It's the first year that this category has 5 nominees. It was always weird to me this only had 3. EVERY film has makeup and hair. Anyways, it's probably between Bombshell or Judy because the transformations are OBVIOUS. I'm pissed that Rocketman wasn't included here. I would've picked it for the win.

PREDICTION: Judy
ALTERNATE: Bombshell
FINAL WORD: Also pissed that Dolemite is My Name and Little Women weren't included here. Do better.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• American Factory
• The Cave
• The Edge of Democracy
• For Sama
• Honeyland

This is a good list, but my two favorite documentaries of the year--Maiden and Apollo 11--weren't included and I'm sad. That said, I've seen 3 of these and they ranged from good to excellent (my favorite is probably the deeply personal For Sama). American Factory has the Netflix/Obama factor though that might give it the edge.

PREDICTION: American Factory
ALTERNATE: Honeyland
FINAL WORD: But seriously, check out Maiden. It felt like a movie thriller.

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Ford v Ferrari
• Joker
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Other than Joker, these nominations makes sense. You'd think it'd be between 1917 and Ford v Ferrari and same goes to the Sound Mixing award.

PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Ad Astra
• Ford v Ferrari
• Joker
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is Ad Astra's sole nod. Weird. Anyways, see above.

PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: Ford v Ferrari

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker's Hildur Guðnadóttir is the first woman to be nominated in this category and she's the front runner! Again, I'm not a fan of the film, but I wouldn't be sad about this win. I personally would given it to either Little Women's Alexandre Desplat or 1917's Thomas Newman (who's the Susan Lucci of this category).

PREDICTION: Joker
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: John Williams is a true legend, but... stop. Star Wars doesn't have to be nominated every single time.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4
• "I’m Gonna Love Me Again," Rocketman
• "I’m Standing With You," Breakthrough
• "Into the Unknown," Frozen 2
• "Stand Up," Harriet

The wrong song from Frozen 2 was nominated. No "Glasgow" from Wild Rose. No surprise nomination for Parasite's original song. They passed over the fun "Catchy Song" from Lego Movie 2 or the original song from Aladdin. But sure, let's nominate some dirge from Diane Warren.

PREDICTION: I'm Gonna Love Me Again
ALTERNATE: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away
FINAL WORD: I'm just going to listen to "Show Yourself" a bunch of times.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Brotherhood
• Nefta Football Club
• The Neighbors’ Window
• Saria
• A Sister

I try to watch this every year, but I skipped last year and didn't find the time this year. I hate the shortened Oscar season.

PREDICTION: Saria
ALTERNATE: The Neighbors' Window

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Dcera
• Hair Love
• Kitbull
• Memorable
• Sister

I've only seen Hair Love and it's wonderful.

PREDICTION: Hair Love
ALTERNATE: Sister

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• In the Absence
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
• Life Overtakes Me
• St. Louis Superman
• Walk Run Cha-Cha

I've only seen Life Overtakes Me. It's okay, but I think could've been much better. So I have no idea what to say

PREDICTION: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
ALTERNATE: In the Absence

So I predicted Parasite to get 3 Oscars including Best Picture while 1917 walks home with the most at 4 wins including Best Director. I actually think that might be too small for 1917, but I'm all about predicting spread-the-wealth sort of thing. I do hope Parasite gets those 3 wins (and maybe more)?

Click here for my picks on who should win.

Best Picture Tweets

Since I don't do regular reviews, I depend on my quick takes on twitter to remember what I thought of movies I've seen over the year. I don't do it for every film, but I do try to do it for films I really like or films that might be nominated for Oscars.

And so in the order of when I saw the movies, here are my initial reactions for the Best Picture nominees this year...

I enjoyed Brad and Leo's natural chemistry with each other and Leo in particular was impressive in everything QT had him do. His scenes with the little girl were my favorite. Movie certainly did NOT need to be that long and Robbie was a bit of a non-entity?

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) July 26, 2019

With that said... surprisingly we all agreed that the last third of the film was its strongest highlighted by how breathtakingly ICONIC Phoenix's #Joker looked and felt. We also agreed Joaquin blew the role out of the water. His face is SO interesting.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) October 6, 2019

PARASITE is damn good. And I totally get why people have said to go into the movie cold but if you're like me and you were slightly unsure to see it because you thought it'd be TOO weird or a horror film... it's neither. So now go forth and see it! 🍑

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) October 18, 2019

JOJO RABBIT is pretty amazing. The kid actors were absolutely superb. I laughed. I cried. ALSO there was a Q+A afterwards and Taika Waititi himself was in attendance! He is HIGHlarious. Thanks @FPNYC for the free tickets. #JojoRabbit pic.twitter.com/cGI4yt2Ec5

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) October 20, 2019

Like the movie's emotional je ne sais quoi doesn't REALLY hit until Jupe's character asks one of the adults "Have you ever been on fire?" The movie then takes on a new level after that moment. #FordVsFerrari

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) November 15, 2019

Both leads--Scarlett and Adam--are magnificent. But hey let's give it up to Merritt Wever. Her whole serving paper bit needs to be re-cut as a short film and it should win all the awards.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 24, 2019

LITTLE WOMEN is just absolutely delightful. I'm going to need Gerwig/Ronan/Chalamet to keep working together forever.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 27, 2019

Well, I REALLY liked the last 40 minutes or so of THE IRISHMAN. The movie is 3 hours and 29 minutes long.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 29, 2019

Oh and Roger Deakins is a fucking master. Those night sequences are *chefs kiss*. #1917Movie

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) January 12, 2020

Of course, there are some other films that probably should've been nominated for Best Picture. So let's see what my initial thoughts on those as well...

THE FAREWELL is a magnificent film. It's so rare for a heart-wrenching story to also be side-splittingly hilarious. It's very probably my favorite film of the year so far. For the love of everything good, everyone should see this movie ASAP.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) July 21, 2019

Oh. My. God. #AvengersEndgame

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) April 28, 2019

🎂👨‍👧‍👦👩‍⚕️💉🗡️💩🍩🤮 #KnivesOut

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 1, 2019

BOOKSMART is so good. And so funny. The ensemble was also a pleasant surprise. Go see it in theaters because we need more movies like this!

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) May 25, 2019

My Personal Oscar Ballot 2020

I can't believe the Oscars are tomorrow already! This speedy af awards season isn't my preference, but what can I do. Anyways, before we see the Oscars make probably stupid decisions (see Best Picture/Actor last year), let's take a look if they went with everything *I* wanted. Presenting, my personal ballot...

Note: For Best Picture, Academy voters are asked to rank their choices. For the other categories, they are only asked to pick their choice of winner, which is exactly what I've done.

Best Picture
1 - Parasite
2 - Little Women
3 - Jojo Rabbit
4 - 1917
5 - Marriage Story
6 - Ford v. Ferrari
7 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 - The Irishman
9 - Joker

Best Director: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Best Lead Actor: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Best Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh, Little Women
Best Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite
Best Documentary: For Sama
Best Original Score: 1917
Best Original Song: "Into the Unknown," Frozen 2
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Production Design: Parasite
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Makeup and Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Sound Mixing: Ad Astra
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame
Best Live Action Short: The Neighbors' Window
Best Animated Short: Hair Love
Best Documentary Short: In the Absence

I went a little Parasite/Little Women crazy, but as they are my top two favorite Best Picture films (and likely my personal top 10 for the year), it makes sense. 1917 also did well, on the strength of its technical achievements. If only the Academy had my awesome taste, right?

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

This has been a weird year. A really, really weird year. First, the Academy seemed to have lost their damn minds in reaction to getting "low" ratings last year. What followed is a series of hilarious and inane directives they thought would improve ratings only to be met with swift and deserved backlash. Most of those were reversed, but awards season had its own drama separate from that. Can a black-and-white Netflix film really be the front-runner? Did the major guilds really give their awards to historically more films? Did a mediocre film directed by Bryan Singer actually maintain Oscar momentum? What is going the fuck on? Well, on to my thoughts and predictions...

BEST PICTURE

• Black Panther (7 nominations)
• BlacKkKlansman (6 nominations)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (5 nominations)
• The Favourite (10 nominations)
• Green Book (5 nominations)
• Roma (10 nominations)
• A Star Is Born (8 nominations)
• Vice (8 nominations)

A few solid picks, a couple historic-making films, and some really mediocre movies. Sounds about right. A few films that probably were on the long list include Eighth Grade, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, and First Man which honestly would've been a better choice that a few picks here. The film to beat is also the unlikeliest to win based on history. Roma after all is a foreign language film and from a streaming platform. But what other films could win? Green Book's facile attempt at race relations appeals to Academy's more conservative members (see Driving Miss Daisy, Crash) while BlacKkKlansman offers a more timely and more thoughtful experience.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Green Book
FINAL WORD: While I love Roma, my pick would've been The Favourite. But even if it walks home empty-handed the fact that a Lanthimos film got 10 Oscar nominations is a minor miracle. Click here for my first thoughts on the BP nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
• Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
• Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
• Adam McKay, Vice

It's insane that this is Spike Lee's first nomination, but thankfully here he is and for a damn good film. The inclusion of Pawlikowski, Lanthimos and Cuarón (hopefully) speaks to the more internationally diverse Academy. McKay... is nominated. Over Bradley Cooper. Over Ryan Coogler. Over the various women who made wonderful films this year. But hey, at least Bryan Singer is nowhere to be found. This is Cuarón's award to lose.

PREDICTION: Alfonso Cuarón
ALTERNATE: Spike Lee
FINAL WORD: If they pick anyone but McKay, it'll be a good year. But maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? This is getting absolutely tiresome.



BEST ACTRESS

• Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
• Glenn Close, The Wife
• Olivia Colman, The Favourite
• Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I think people saw Close, Colman, and Gaga from a mile away. And while Close is very nearly the favorite to pick up her first (!) Oscar, it's actually competitive with Colman possibly playing the spoiler especially with her film garnering 10 nominations to Close's sole nod. McCarthy picking up her second nod for such an unlikely film makes me smile as does Aparicio getting a nod on her debut film!

PREDICTION: Glenn Close
ALTERNATE: Olivia Colman
FINAL WORD: They went heavily with drama instead of horror (Toni Collette) and musical (Emily Blunt). Hopefully both will get their dues soon. But Close! Colman! Whoever wins, it's going to be a GREAT speech.

BEST ACTOR

• Christian Bale, Vice
• Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

This category fills me with much dread with four performances from films that range from mediocre to awful. The only performance from a film I liked is Cooper's and it's insane to me that he isn't a front-runner especially since he was blanked on a directing nomination. Instead Malek is inexplicably the likely winner and while he wasn't bad, the whole packaging of the performance and the film have left an immense bad taste in my mouth. Unfortunate since I actually like him.

PREDICTION: Rami Malek
ALTERNATE: Bradley Cooper
FINAL WORD: How about for the next few years we award those playing original characters as opposed to real life people? If we did that this year... guess what... Bradley Cooper wins by default! UGH.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Vice
• Marina de Tavira, Roma
• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone, The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

De Tavira's inclusion here signaled the strong support for her film, because she literally didn't appear anywhere else during the precursors. It was a refreshing surprise especially for a role that could've easily gone unnoticed. Category fraud aside, I do love Stone/Weisz and in love with what they did in their film. Adams will win her Oscar someday and King will probably win her first this year. Other names on the probable long list include Claire Foy, Michelle Yeoh (sigh), Emily Blunt, and Nicole Kidman.

PREDICTION: Regina King
ALTERNATE: Rachel Weisz
FINAL WORD: Other than Stone, I think anyone can win here. It's weirdly in flux even though King dominated awards season. But the lack of a SAG and BAFTA nomination makes her vulnerable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book
• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell, Vice

It makes sense that Ali has become the front-runner. A lot people like the film and more like him as a person. Plus he's practically a lead. It is unfortunate though since as much as I like him, I think Driver/Elliot/Grant are more deserving winners especially Grant. Rockwell's nomination is absolutely ridiculous as was his win last year (and I like him!). It's especially egregious due to all the people who could've taken his place like Timothée Chalamet, Michael B Jordan, Alessandro Nivola, Colman Domingo, and Steven Yeun. Harsh.

PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali
ALTERNATE: Sam Elliott
FINAL WORD: Grant has been having the time of his life post-Oscar nod and it'd be thrilling if he pulled off the upset, but I'm not predicting it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

I'm personally offended that Crazy Rich Asians or Black Panther weren't nominated here, but the Academy gonna do its thing I guess even though both films made a lot of money and were critically acclaimed. Buster Scruggs' inclusion shocked me a but, but Coen brothers are practically royalty here. Anyways, this is the category that might just get Spike Lee (for BlacKkKlansman) his first Oscars.

PREDICTION: BlacKkKlansman
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: Can You Ever Forgive Me? won the WGA which was a minor shock. I wouldn't be surprised if it won here, but I do think it's between Lee and Jenkins.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

WGA-winner Eighth Grade should've been here and it's aggressively obnoxious that it wasn't included especially over the likes of Green Book and Vice. In any case, this is a wide open category. Literally any of these films can win. Your guess is as good as anyone else's at this point.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: First Reformed
FINAL WORD: My personal pick here would be The Favourite or Roma. I'm not the biggest fan of the rest and I'm still pissed that Eighth Grade wasn't nominated.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum (Lebanon)
• Cold War (Poland)
• Never Look Away (Germany)
• Roma (Mexico)
• Shoplifters (Japan)

I've only seen Roma, but I have Shoplifters in DVD to watch this weekend. Cold War, especially with its Directing nod, is also a strong contender. Roma is the favorite, but if the Academy think that'll be awarded elsewhere (like Picture/Director), they might be compelled to give this award to another film. And why not give it to the Cannes-winning film?

PREDICTION: Cold War
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: I haven't seen it yet, but Burning had a lot of fans. And The Cakemaker didn't even make the longlist.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This list was pretty set awhile ago with no big shocker one way or another. Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs were probably fighting for the win most of the year until Into the Spider-Verse came out and just absolutely changed the conversation entirely by its dazzling visuals and perfect script. If there's any justice in the world, that film would win easily, but unfortunately it's not the almighty Disney (see How to Train Your Dragon 2 losing to Big Hero 6).

PREDICTION: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
ALTERNATE: Incredibles 2
FINAL WORD: We are all Spider-Man.

BEST FILM EDITING

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Green Book
• The Favourite
• Vice

Increasingly this category has come to awarding film with the most and obvious editing. So if that's the case, it's likely going to either Vice or ACE-winner Bohemian Rhapsody. Since I'm not a fan of either film, I'm hoping neither one of them gets it. How Roma or First Man or any of this year's critically acclaimed documentaries didn't get nominated perplexes me to no end.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: I'm too despondent to say anything else. Only to cheer BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite to "upset" this category.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Black Panther
• First Man
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

As opposed to editing, this technical category is actually chock full of good films and surprisingly, good production design! What a word! This is probably The Favourite's to win, but hilariously there isn't a favorite this year.

PREDICTION: The Favourite
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Roma is probably the more accomplished, but The Favourite is more noticeable. Both are damn worthy.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

Most people were shocked at Never Look Away, but Deschanel is a big name so it's less shocking in retrospect. With that said, the lack of First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk is frustrating. Anyways, this is Roma vs. Cold War.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Cold War
FINAL WORD: Hey, remember when Deakins finally won last year? That's a good memory.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

This is a fun category even though the lack of contemporary films like Crazy Rich Asians and A Simple Favor makes this feel incomplete. With that said, this is a difficult one to predict. I'm thinking it's between Powell (The Favourite) or Carter (Black Panther) and with Powell double-nominated (nominated for Mary Poppins as well), that might just make a difference in Carter's favor.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: The Favourite
FINAL WORD: Seriously, what do contemporary films need to do to get some traction here?!

BEST VISUAL EFFCTS

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

It's actually refreshing to see Black Panther not nominated here, because it really didn't deserve it. I am sad to see Ant-Man and the Wasp miss out here, but this is probably where the Academy can give a deserved win to the much maligned First Man which should've been a blockbuster hit with so many more nominations.

PREDICTION: First Man
ALTERNATE: Avengers: Infinity War
FINAL WORD: Seriously, that moon landing sequence is just *chef's kiss*.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice

Suspiria was probably the big miss here, but Best Picture films like The Favourite, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman felt like they could've been considered here. At least Bohemian Rhapsody and its teeth weren't nominated.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Border
FINAL WORD: Seriously, thank goodness Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG

How the fuck do they not nominate Mister Rogers? Isn't that sacrilegous or something? It's also surprising to see them not nominate the much buzzed Three Identical Strangers. With that said, this genre's other big hits are present here--Free Solo, Minding the Gap, and RBG--and I'll be shocked if one of these don't win. I love them all so it's a win-win-win either way.

PREDICTION: Free Solo
ALTERNATE: Minding the Gap
FINAL WORD: Seriously, I probably saw more documentaries this year than any year and this category is so good this year. Can we have ties?
BEST SOUND EDITING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Surprisingly this is A Quiet Place's one and only nomination and honestly, it should win this. But my sentimental pick is First Man. Roma is probably the best choice overall, but sadly Bohemian Rhapsody is the favorite because everyone loves Queen I guess.

PREDICTION: Bohemian Rhapsody
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Just sing Queen in karaoke and stop giving it awards!

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

I don't have any additional thoughts here, but again Bohemian Rhapsody is probably the one to beat with Roma or First Man as the alternate pick.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: Is this real life? Is this just fantasy?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

It's a good list, but First Man was the favorite going into the nominations and when it didn't get in, it suddenly became a free-for-all. I honestly have no idea who's going to win here, but well First Man was absolutely robbed.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: [listens to First Man's score]

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "All The Stars," Black Panther
• "I’ll Fight," RBG
• "The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
• "Shallow," A Star Is Born
• "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings," The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

They could've had Dolly Parton or Lin-Manuel Miranda, but alas. And now Emily Blunt and Kendrick Lamar are not performing (though Bette Midler is taking Blunt's place...which okay). OBVIOUSLY this is Lady Gaga's Oscar to lose. Take that Glenn Close!

PREDICTION: "Shallow"
ALTERNATE: "All The Stars"
FINAL WORD: In the sha-ha, sha-ha-ha-low...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Detainment
• Fauve
• Marguerite
• Mother
• Skin

Apparently this year's slate is extra depressing. I usually watch these every year, but I took a pass this year. Marguerite is the sole non-kill-me-now film so I'll pick that for the win.

PREDICTION: Marguerite
ALTERNATE: Mother

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Animal Behaviour
• Bao
• Late Afternoon
• One Small Step
• Weekends

I was going to see this slate since Live Action was bleak, but I also didn't get a chance. I saw Bao in front of Incredibles 2 and it IS created by Asian filmmakers.

PREDICTION: Bao
ALTERNATE: One Small Step

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Black Sheep
• End Game
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Period. End of Sentence.

A couple of these are on Netflix and a couple more are available to stream elsewhere. Period. End of Sentence is probably the lightest of them all, but also most accessible. Lifeboat and A Night at the Garden are most timely.

PREDICTION: Lifeboat
ALTERNATE: Period. End of Sentence.

So I'm predicting 5 wins for Roma including Picture/Director while the only other films getting multiple wins being Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and Vice. The other fun thing is that apparently I'm predicting all the Best Picture nominees to walk away with at least one award. Will the Oscars actually be so spread-the-wealth? It's not often this happens so I'm probably really, really wrong. Anyways, we'll all see tomorrow! Still no host! Unless it's Whoopi Goldberg. But probably not though.

Click here for my picks on who should win.