Tuesday, February 22, 2011

My Oscar Predictions

The ballots were due today and tabulating those votes either already began or will happen in full force tomorrow. Either way, determining who will take the big prizes just got that much closer.

Many people are probably tired of the race, but I think this year it's actually been quite a nail-biter. There's still not a consensus on what will happen with Picture/Director and those supporting acting categories aren't as locked as more recent years. Then you have the technical categories which seem to diverge in many directions and, well, next thing you know there's actually some genuine suspense leading up to the ceremony.

I've already posted my own personal ballot i.e. who I want to win. So now I'd like to offer up my predictions. For reference, I went 16/24 (67%) last year despite it being dubbed as a "predictable year" so take the following predictions with a grain of salt. You'll also see why after you look at my tally of wins below.

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Lead Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Lead Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Foreign Language Film: In A Better World, Denmark
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Original Song: We Belong Together, Toy Story 3
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Art Direction: Inception
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Documentary Short: Poster Girl
Best Animated Short: Day & Night
Best Live Action Short: Wish 143
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception

Tally: 5 - Inception; 3 - The King's Speech, The Social Network; 2- True Grit, Toy Story 3; 1 - Black Swan, The Fighter, In A Better World, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, Inside Job, Poster Girl, Day & Night, Wish 143

My predicted tally of wins look incredibly messed up. Do I really think Inception will win the most trophies that night? Will The Social Network really only win three Oscars especially considering how big those wins would be? Could The King's Speech really win Picture, but only get a total of 3 measly wins? My gut is saying NO NO NO to all of these questions and yet... I'm predicting it. Que sera.

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