BAFTA Nominations and Predictions

Currently watching the BAFTA red carpet live stream which means we should be getting spoilerific updates for the actual awards in a couple of hours. But first some quick thoughts and predictions!

Best Film

• Arrival
• I, Daniel Blake
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Best British Film

• American Honey
• Denial
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• I, Daniel Blake
• Notes on Blindness
• Under the Shadow

Just last year, there was no overlap between these two categories. This year there's one film I, Daniel Blake which hasn't made its way here in the US yet. Of course, awards front-runner La La Land is here and leads with 11 nods followed closely by 9 nods for Arrival.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land for Best Film, American Honey for British Film
WILL WIN: La La Land for Best Film, Daniel Blake for British Film

Best Director

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Nocturnal Animals also garnered 9 nods, but without a Best Film nomination. It did get Best Director knocking off a possible nomination for Moonlight's Barry Jenkins. Loach could be a surprise win, but everyone's betting on DGA-winner Chazelle.

SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle

Best Actor

• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Actress

• Amy Adams, Arrival
• Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Natalie Portman, Jackie

Most of these names are Oscar-nominated but the ones that weren't are worth pointing out. The Brits really liked Nocturnal Animals and not so much for Fences so Gyllenhaal replacing Denzel Washington made sense. It's a bit more surprising to see Blunt replace Ruth Negga (both British so that didn't make an impact). The racial optics of both replacement isn't great. FYI, Isabelle Huppert wasn't eligible. Could Garfield surprise as a Brit in the increasingly competitive Actor category?

SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck, Emma Stone

Best Supporting Actor

• Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress

• Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
• Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Viola Davis, Fences

We all know Viola is winning this award, but her film didn't get much love while the others got a lot of love. Supporting Actor could be interesting as well. Ali is the favorite, but how about Globe-winner Taylor-Johnson or home-town favorite Patel and Grant?

SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis
WILL WIN: Hugh Grant, Nicole Kidman

Best Original Screenplay

• Hell or High Water
• I, Daniel Blake
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hidden Figures
• Lion
• Nocturnal Animals

Moonlight is in the Adapted category for the Oscars and just won the Scripter Awards last night. But the safe bet would be Manchester by the Sea (unless La La Land sweeps) for Original and one of Amy's films for Adapted.

SHOULD WIN: Moonlight, Lion
WILL WIN: Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals

Best Film Not in the English Language

• Dheepan
• Julieta
• Mustang
• Son of Saul
• Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary

• 13th
• The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years
• The Eagle Huntress
• Notes on Blindness
• Weiner

Best Animated Film

• Finding Dory
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• Zootropolis

Zootropolis should continue its season-long domination. With Documentary, I have no earthly idea while in Foreign it's 2016 favorite vs. 2017 favorite with Son of Saul and Toni Erdmann. I think Erdmann has momentum though.

SHOULD WIN: Toni Erdmann, 13th, Zootropolis
WILL WIN: Toni Erdman, The Beatles, Zootropolis

Best Cinematography

• Arrival
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Lion
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Editing

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Production Design

• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Costume Design

• Allied
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jackie
• La La Land

Best Make Up & Hair

• Doctor Strange
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Nocturnal Animals
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Music

• Arrival
• Jackie
• La La Land
• Lion
• Nocturnal Animals

Best Sound

• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land

Best Special Visual Effects

• Arrival
• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• The Jungle Book
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

La La Land could easily sweep but there's some strong competition in a few of the categories. Plus someone else will have to win in Visual Effects and Make-Up/Hair (a weird miss for the musical IMO).

WILL WIN: Arrival for Cinematography, La La Land for Editing, Fantastic Beast for Production Design, Florence Foster for Costume, Nocturnal Animals for Make Up/Hair, La La Land for Music, La La Land for Sound, Jungle Book for Visual Effects.

Best British Debut

• The Girl With All the Gifts – Mike Carey (writer), Camille Gatin (producer)
• The Hard Stop – George Amponsah (writer/director/producer), Dionne Walker (writer/producer)
• Notes on Blindness - Peter Middleton (writer/director/producer), James Spinney (writer/director), Jo-Jo Ellison (producer)
• The Pass – John Donnelly (writer), Ben A Williams (director)
• Under the Shadow – Babak Anvari (writer/director), Emily Leo, Oliver Roskill, Lucan Toh (producers)

Best British Short Animation

• The Alan Dimension
• A Love Story
• Tough

Best British Short Film

• Consumed
• Home
• Mouth of Hell
• The Party
• Standby

EE Rising Star Award

• Anya Taylor-Joy
• Laia Costa
• Lucas Hedges
• Ruth Negga
• Tom Holland

I'm fairly ignorant on these British categories so I'll have to plead the fifth when it comes to commenting on them. As for the Rising Star award, could anyone actually beat Spider-Man Tom Holland?

WILL WIN: Notes on Blindness for Britist Debut, The Alan Dimension for Animation Short, The Party for Short Film, and Tom Holland for Rising Star.