Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

This has been a weird year. A really, really weird year. First, the Academy seemed to have lost their damn minds in reaction to getting "low" ratings last year. What followed is a series of hilarious and inane directives they thought would improve ratings only to be met with swift and deserved backlash. Most of those were reversed, but awards season had its own drama separate from that. Can a black-and-white Netflix film really be the front-runner? Did the major guilds really give their awards to historically more films? Did a mediocre film directed by Bryan Singer actually maintain Oscar momentum? What is going the fuck on? Well, on to my thoughts and predictions...

BEST PICTURE

• Black Panther (7 nominations)
• BlacKkKlansman (6 nominations)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (5 nominations)
• The Favourite (10 nominations)
• Green Book (5 nominations)
• Roma (10 nominations)
• A Star Is Born (8 nominations)
• Vice (8 nominations)

A few solid picks, a couple historic-making films, and some really mediocre movies. Sounds about right. A few films that probably were on the long list include Eighth Grade, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, and First Man which honestly would've been a better choice that a few picks here. The film to beat is also the unlikeliest to win based on history. Roma after all is a foreign language film and from a streaming platform. But what other films could win? Green Book's facile attempt at race relations appeals to Academy's more conservative members (see Driving Miss Daisy, Crash) while BlacKkKlansman offers a more timely and more thoughtful experience.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Green Book
FINAL WORD: While I love Roma, my pick would've been The Favourite. But even if it walks home empty-handed the fact that a Lanthimos film got 10 Oscar nominations is a minor miracle. Click here for my first thoughts on the BP nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
• Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
• Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
• Adam McKay, Vice

It's insane that this is Spike Lee's first nomination, but thankfully here he is and for a damn good film. The inclusion of Pawlikowski, Lanthimos and Cuarón (hopefully) speaks to the more internationally diverse Academy. McKay... is nominated. Over Bradley Cooper. Over Ryan Coogler. Over the various women who made wonderful films this year. But hey, at least Bryan Singer is nowhere to be found. This is Cuarón's award to lose.

PREDICTION: Alfonso Cuarón
ALTERNATE: Spike Lee
FINAL WORD: If they pick anyone but McKay, it'll be a good year. But maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? This is getting absolutely tiresome.



BEST ACTRESS

• Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
• Glenn Close, The Wife
• Olivia Colman, The Favourite
• Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I think people saw Close, Colman, and Gaga from a mile away. And while Close is very nearly the favorite to pick up her first (!) Oscar, it's actually competitive with Colman possibly playing the spoiler especially with her film garnering 10 nominations to Close's sole nod. McCarthy picking up her second nod for such an unlikely film makes me smile as does Aparicio getting a nod on her debut film!

PREDICTION: Glenn Close
ALTERNATE: Olivia Colman
FINAL WORD: They went heavily with drama instead of horror (Toni Collette) and musical (Emily Blunt). Hopefully both will get their dues soon. But Close! Colman! Whoever wins, it's going to be a GREAT speech.

BEST ACTOR

• Christian Bale, Vice
• Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

This category fills me with much dread with four performances from films that range from mediocre to awful. The only performance from a film I liked is Cooper's and it's insane to me that he isn't a front-runner especially since he was blanked on a directing nomination. Instead Malek is inexplicably the likely winner and while he wasn't bad, the whole packaging of the performance and the film have left an immense bad taste in my mouth. Unfortunate since I actually like him.

PREDICTION: Rami Malek
ALTERNATE: Bradley Cooper
FINAL WORD: How about for the next few years we award those playing original characters as opposed to real life people? If we did that this year... guess what... Bradley Cooper wins by default! UGH.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Vice
• Marina de Tavira, Roma
• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone, The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

De Tavira's inclusion here signaled the strong support for her film, because she literally didn't appear anywhere else during the precursors. It was a refreshing surprise especially for a role that could've easily gone unnoticed. Category fraud aside, I do love Stone/Weisz and in love with what they did in their film. Adams will win her Oscar someday and King will probably win her first this year. Other names on the probable long list include Claire Foy, Michelle Yeoh (sigh), Emily Blunt, and Nicole Kidman.

PREDICTION: Regina King
ALTERNATE: Rachel Weisz
FINAL WORD: Other than Stone, I think anyone can win here. It's weirdly in flux even though King dominated awards season. But the lack of a SAG and BAFTA nomination makes her vulnerable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book
• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell, Vice

It makes sense that Ali has become the front-runner. A lot people like the film and more like him as a person. Plus he's practically a lead. It is unfortunate though since as much as I like him, I think Driver/Elliot/Grant are more deserving winners especially Grant. Rockwell's nomination is absolutely ridiculous as was his win last year (and I like him!). It's especially egregious due to all the people who could've taken his place like Timothée Chalamet, Michael B Jordan, Alessandro Nivola, Colman Domingo, and Steven Yeun. Harsh.

PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali
ALTERNATE: Sam Elliott
FINAL WORD: Grant has been having the time of his life post-Oscar nod and it'd be thrilling if he pulled off the upset, but I'm not predicting it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

I'm personally offended that Crazy Rich Asians or Black Panther weren't nominated here, but the Academy gonna do its thing I guess even though both films made a lot of money and were critically acclaimed. Buster Scruggs' inclusion shocked me a but, but Coen brothers are practically royalty here. Anyways, this is the category that might just get Spike Lee (for BlacKkKlansman) his first Oscars.

PREDICTION: BlacKkKlansman
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: Can You Ever Forgive Me? won the WGA which was a minor shock. I wouldn't be surprised if it won here, but I do think it's between Lee and Jenkins.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

WGA-winner Eighth Grade should've been here and it's aggressively obnoxious that it wasn't included especially over the likes of Green Book and Vice. In any case, this is a wide open category. Literally any of these films can win. Your guess is as good as anyone else's at this point.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: First Reformed
FINAL WORD: My personal pick here would be The Favourite or Roma. I'm not the biggest fan of the rest and I'm still pissed that Eighth Grade wasn't nominated.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum (Lebanon)
• Cold War (Poland)
• Never Look Away (Germany)
• Roma (Mexico)
• Shoplifters (Japan)

I've only seen Roma, but I have Shoplifters in DVD to watch this weekend. Cold War, especially with its Directing nod, is also a strong contender. Roma is the favorite, but if the Academy think that'll be awarded elsewhere (like Picture/Director), they might be compelled to give this award to another film. And why not give it to the Cannes-winning film?

PREDICTION: Cold War
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: I haven't seen it yet, but Burning had a lot of fans. And The Cakemaker didn't even make the longlist.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This list was pretty set awhile ago with no big shocker one way or another. Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs were probably fighting for the win most of the year until Into the Spider-Verse came out and just absolutely changed the conversation entirely by its dazzling visuals and perfect script. If there's any justice in the world, that film would win easily, but unfortunately it's not the almighty Disney (see How to Train Your Dragon 2 losing to Big Hero 6).

PREDICTION: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
ALTERNATE: Incredibles 2
FINAL WORD: We are all Spider-Man.

BEST FILM EDITING

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Green Book
• The Favourite
• Vice

Increasingly this category has come to awarding film with the most and obvious editing. So if that's the case, it's likely going to either Vice or ACE-winner Bohemian Rhapsody. Since I'm not a fan of either film, I'm hoping neither one of them gets it. How Roma or First Man or any of this year's critically acclaimed documentaries didn't get nominated perplexes me to no end.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: I'm too despondent to say anything else. Only to cheer BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite to "upset" this category.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Black Panther
• First Man
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

As opposed to editing, this technical category is actually chock full of good films and surprisingly, good production design! What a word! This is probably The Favourite's to win, but hilariously there isn't a favorite this year.

PREDICTION: The Favourite
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Roma is probably the more accomplished, but The Favourite is more noticeable. Both are damn worthy.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

Most people were shocked at Never Look Away, but Deschanel is a big name so it's less shocking in retrospect. With that said, the lack of First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk is frustrating. Anyways, this is Roma vs. Cold War.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Cold War
FINAL WORD: Hey, remember when Deakins finally won last year? That's a good memory.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

This is a fun category even though the lack of contemporary films like Crazy Rich Asians and A Simple Favor makes this feel incomplete. With that said, this is a difficult one to predict. I'm thinking it's between Powell (The Favourite) or Carter (Black Panther) and with Powell double-nominated (nominated for Mary Poppins as well), that might just make a difference in Carter's favor.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: The Favourite
FINAL WORD: Seriously, what do contemporary films need to do to get some traction here?!

BEST VISUAL EFFCTS

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

It's actually refreshing to see Black Panther not nominated here, because it really didn't deserve it. I am sad to see Ant-Man and the Wasp miss out here, but this is probably where the Academy can give a deserved win to the much maligned First Man which should've been a blockbuster hit with so many more nominations.

PREDICTION: First Man
ALTERNATE: Avengers: Infinity War
FINAL WORD: Seriously, that moon landing sequence is just *chef's kiss*.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice

Suspiria was probably the big miss here, but Best Picture films like The Favourite, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman felt like they could've been considered here. At least Bohemian Rhapsody and its teeth weren't nominated.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Border
FINAL WORD: Seriously, thank goodness Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG

How the fuck do they not nominate Mister Rogers? Isn't that sacrilegous or something? It's also surprising to see them not nominate the much buzzed Three Identical Strangers. With that said, this genre's other big hits are present here--Free Solo, Minding the Gap, and RBG--and I'll be shocked if one of these don't win. I love them all so it's a win-win-win either way.

PREDICTION: Free Solo
ALTERNATE: Minding the Gap
FINAL WORD: Seriously, I probably saw more documentaries this year than any year and this category is so good this year. Can we have ties?
BEST SOUND EDITING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Surprisingly this is A Quiet Place's one and only nomination and honestly, it should win this. But my sentimental pick is First Man. Roma is probably the best choice overall, but sadly Bohemian Rhapsody is the favorite because everyone loves Queen I guess.

PREDICTION: Bohemian Rhapsody
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Just sing Queen in karaoke and stop giving it awards!

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

I don't have any additional thoughts here, but again Bohemian Rhapsody is probably the one to beat with Roma or First Man as the alternate pick.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: Is this real life? Is this just fantasy?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

It's a good list, but First Man was the favorite going into the nominations and when it didn't get in, it suddenly became a free-for-all. I honestly have no idea who's going to win here, but well First Man was absolutely robbed.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: [listens to First Man's score]

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "All The Stars," Black Panther
• "I’ll Fight," RBG
• "The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
• "Shallow," A Star Is Born
• "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings," The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

They could've had Dolly Parton or Lin-Manuel Miranda, but alas. And now Emily Blunt and Kendrick Lamar are not performing (though Bette Midler is taking Blunt's place...which okay). OBVIOUSLY this is Lady Gaga's Oscar to lose. Take that Glenn Close!

PREDICTION: "Shallow"
ALTERNATE: "All The Stars"
FINAL WORD: In the sha-ha, sha-ha-ha-low...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Detainment
• Fauve
• Marguerite
• Mother
• Skin

Apparently this year's slate is extra depressing. I usually watch these every year, but I took a pass this year. Marguerite is the sole non-kill-me-now film so I'll pick that for the win.

PREDICTION: Marguerite
ALTERNATE: Mother

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Animal Behaviour
• Bao
• Late Afternoon
• One Small Step
• Weekends

I was going to see this slate since Live Action was bleak, but I also didn't get a chance. I saw Bao in front of Incredibles 2 and it IS created by Asian filmmakers.

PREDICTION: Bao
ALTERNATE: One Small Step

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Black Sheep
• End Game
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Period. End of Sentence.

A couple of these are on Netflix and a couple more are available to stream elsewhere. Period. End of Sentence is probably the lightest of them all, but also most accessible. Lifeboat and A Night at the Garden are most timely.

PREDICTION: Lifeboat
ALTERNATE: Period. End of Sentence.

So I'm predicting 5 wins for Roma including Picture/Director while the only other films getting multiple wins being Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and Vice. The other fun thing is that apparently I'm predicting all the Best Picture nominees to walk away with at least one award. Will the Oscars actually be so spread-the-wealth? It's not often this happens so I'm probably really, really wrong. Anyways, we'll all see tomorrow! Still no host! Unless it's Whoopi Goldberg. But probably not though.

Click here for my picks on who should win.