Thoughts on Oscar Nominations and Predictions

With just a day to go until the 89th Academy Awards, here are my thoughts on the nominations (and the snubs) as well as my personal picks to win and also my predictions. All-in-one post for efficiency!

BEST PICTURE

• Arrival (8 nominations)
• Fences (4 nominations)
• Hacksaw Ridge (6 nominations)
• Hell or High Water (4 nominations)
• Hidden Figures (3 nominations)
• La La Land (14 nominations)
• Lion (6 nominations)
• Manchester by the Sea (6 nominations)
• Moonlight (8 nominations)

It's La La Land's world and we just live in it. And I couldn't be happier. It's not often that the Oscar front-runner (with a record tying 14 Oscar nominations) is also my favorite film so I've been quite enjoying its dominant awards-season run even with the predictable backlash. If that backlash sticks though Moonlight should benefit and thankfully I really like that film too! Meanwhile don't ask me why Hacksaw Ridge or Hell or High Water were nominated.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

I wished this had matched up the DGA nomination with Garth Davis (Lion) replacing Gibson, but alas we can't have everything. I think the other nominees were pretty expected and quite deserving. I'm especially thrilled that Villeneuve made it in for a sci-fi film and that Jenkins could become the first black director to win. But I think no one is beating Chazelle. I think even La La Land detractors would agree that he directed that movie wonderfully.

SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle
COULD WIN: Barry Jenkins

BEST ACTRESS

• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Natalie Portman, Jackie
• Ruth Negga, Loving
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Isabelle Huppert, Elle

This was a very competitive year for this category that such veterans like Annette Bening and Amy Adams were left out in the cold. The safe bet here is to pick Stone with her winnings the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. But Portman and Huppert have their staunch fans and they've picked up their share of awards as well (i.e. Stone hasn't steamrolled). And let's give it up for Negga nabbing her first nomination... and of course Streep getting her 20th (!) Oscar nomination.

SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone
WILL WIN: Emma Stone
COULD WIN: Isabelle Huppert

BEST ACTOR

• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington, Fences

If there was an acting race, this would be the category to watch. Affleck is the slight frontrunner dominating the awards season, but there was always the hint of a scandal that never coalesced to anything concrete. And Washington is right there on Affleck's heels with his own powerhouse of a performance garnering him the SAG which feels like a shift in the race... or not. What I would give to have Gosling win in a shock (though as much as I love his film, he should've been nominated for The Nice Guys). Then again as happy as I am for Garfield's first nom (should've been for The Social Network), it really should be for Silence and not this film.

SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck
COULD WIN: Denzel Washington

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Viola Davis, Fences
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

First and foremost I love Davis and I'm so happy she's going to win her first Oscar! And yeah, no one is going to beat her. With that said, it's so clearly a lead role and I'm just a little bit disappointed at the category fraud. She would've been VERY competitive in lead. With that said, I also can't fault her. She's a lock here. If she wasn't here I think Williams could've won her first or perhaps Harris in a "shock" win. Anyways, if Davis wasn't here, who could've snuck in? Greta Gerwig? Janelle Monae?

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis
WILL WIN: Viola Davis
COULD WIN: Michelle Williams (but she won't)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Ali is the frontrunner here after dominating the awards season early on, but since then the race has gotten more interesting. He lost to Aaron-Taylor Johnson at the Globes and Patel at BAFTA. Thankfully Johnson wasn't nominated (instead his co-star Shannon deservedly snuck in without much precursor support), but with Lion surging, Patel is still a threat. Bridges' nod is so damn uninspiring. Could've made room instead for Hugh Grant or Ralph Fiennes.

SHOULD WIN: Michael Shannon
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali
COULD WIN: Dev Patel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hidden Figures
• Lion
• Moonlight

At the WGA Awards, Arrival won, but it wasn't up against Moonlight which interestingly enough was in the Original Screenplay category and won that award. I think Moonlight will make history and double-dip by winning here. If anything its closest competition is probably the surging Lion or the beloved Fences (to posthumously honor August Wilson) and not Arrival.

SHOULD WIN: Lion
WILL WIN: Moonlight
COULD WIN: Fences

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• The Lobster
• Manchester by the Sea
• 20th Century Women

With Moonlight in Adapted, this should be a cakewalk for Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea UNLESS the Oscars want to give La La Land all the awards which it could very well do. I don't think they will, but you never know. I *am* thrilled to see The Lobster and 20th Century Women nominated here. By far the two best scripts in film this year.

SHOULD WIN: The Lobster
WILL WIN: Manchester by the Sea
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Land of Mine (Denmark)
• A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
• The Salesman (Iran)
• Tanna (Australia)
• Toni Erdmann (Germany)

I'm a bit sad I haven't seen any of these films yet, but I know I'll eventually see at least Toni Erdmann (the favorite to win) and The Salesman (the very strong possible spoiler). With early favorites Elle and Neruda not making it in, Toni Erdmann is the only other film to receive precursor love, but if the Academy wants to make a political statement look for Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman. Also if you haven't read the joint statement of these filmmakers, you must.

SHOULD WIN: The Salesman
WILL WIN: Toni Erdmann
COULD WIN: The Salesman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• My Life as a Zucchini
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia

I think you know it's a great year in animation when a Finding Nemo sequel is just my fourth favorite animated film of the year and I'm not even sad it's not nominated. Zootopia is the favorite to win and it's also MY favorite animated film of the year, but I did love Moana and Kubo as well and the latter, with its recent BAFTA win, is nipping at the Zootopia's heels. I've also only heard good things about the other two which I haven't seen.

SHOULD WIN: Zootopia
WILL WIN: Zootopia
COULD WIN: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST FILM EDITING

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Moonlight

All of these are Best Picture nominees and convention says La La Land will take this (and it will deserve it!). But if they want MOST editing, they could possibly go with Hacksaw Ridge or even Hell or High Water. Arrival or Moonlight would be inspired.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Arrival
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• Passengers

Here's the thing, if it was up to me I'd give La La Land most of the categories it's nominated for. And the Academy could very well think the same thing and give it a win here. With that said, I think Fantastic Beasts and Arrival and maybe even Passengers had some precursor support. The big miss here was The Handmaiden.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: Arrival
COULD WIN: Fantastic Beast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Arrival
• La La Land
• Silence
• Lion
• Moonlight

Probably one of my favorite list of nominees this year. I just think every single nomination here is truly well-deserved as I thought these were five of the most beautiful films I saw this past year. Again convention says La La Land if they want to sweep, but I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if Moonlight or even Lion took the trophy.

SHOULD WIN: Lion
WILL WIN: Moonlight
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
• "Can’t Stop the Feeling," Trolls
• "City of Stars," La La Land
• "The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story
• "How Far I’ll Go," Moana

Last year's winner was deplorable so the Academy can only do better this year! And it's a good list with the exception of the totally random "The Empty Chair." It probably took the spot of "Do Anything" from Zootopia or the totally awesome "Drive It Like You Stole It" from Sing Street. That said, this is La La Land versus Lin-Manuel Miranda's quest to EGOT for his Moana song. He has more than a good possibility I think especially if the two La La Land songs split votes.

SHOULD WIN: "How Far I'll Go"
WILL WIN: "City of Stars"
COULD WIN: "How Far I'll Go"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Jackie
• La La Land
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Passengers

As if the Academy voters aren't going to give the score award to the musical film. I think that's a pretty safe bet. If they are feeling adventurous though this would be the best chance to honor Mica Levy's work in Jackie. Or even poor Thomas Newman (Passengers) with his 14 nominations and 0 wins.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Jackie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Allied
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jackie
• La La Land 

People are saying La La Land is a safe bet here, but I know more than a few people who wasn't too impressed (they're crazy). But if that's a more widespread feeling then I would think it'd be between Jackie or Florence Foster Jenkins. Unless they feel they must award Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Beasts) with her 4th win. Light a candle for The Dressmaker.

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: Jackie
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Sully

Hacksaw Ridge and Deepwater Horizon were really loud. But La La Land could sweep so...

SHOULD WIN: La La Land
WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Rogue One
• 13 Hours

Someday I'll know the difference. Then again many Oscar voters don't. I'd probably just say La La Land again, but I think this will swing to another film. Arrival or Rogue One perhaps?

SHOULD WIN: Arrival
WILL WIN: Rogue One
COULD WIN: La La Land

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Rogue One
• The Jungle Book
• Doctor Strange
• Deepwater Horizon
• Kubo and the Two Strings

I think if I was making the ballot, these would've been my exact same five films. And yes, I'm thrilled that Kubo made it in since that film used VFX so well. Anyways, this is The Jungle Book's award to lose, but weirder things have happened.

SHOULD WIN: Kubo and the Two Strings
WILL WIN: The Jungle Book
COULD WIN: Doctor Strange

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

• A Man Called Ove
• Star Trek Beyond
• Suicide Squad

Suicide Squad? Really? I would've gladly switched that out with The Dressmaker, Deadpool, or Florence Foster Jenkins. The sad thing is it's probably the frontrunner here too.

SHOULD WIN: Star Trek Beyond
WILL WIN: A Man Called Ove
COULD WIN: Suicide Squad

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Fire at Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• 13th
• O.J.: Made in America

I've only seen the Ava DuVernay's 13th, which I implore everyone to watch. With that said I haven't heard anyone say anything bad about any of these films. Made in America is probably the slight favorite with all of its precursor support, but I still call foul on submitting a 6+ hour miniseries for Oscar consideration.

SHOULD WIN: 13th
WILL WIN: OJ: Made in America
COULD WIN: 13th

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

• Extremis
• 4.1 Miles
• Joe’s Violin
• Watani: My Homeland
• The White Helmets 

I've seen The White Helmets and Extremis since they're both available on Netflix and I meant to see 4.1 Miles and Joe's Violin since they're also available elsewhere online. Without knowing too much about the race, I think The White Helmets might have an edge especially with our current political climate. Or maybe Joe's Violin.

SHOULD WIN: The White Helmet
WILL WIN: The White Helmet
COULD WIN: Joe's Violin

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• Blind Vaysha
• Borrowed Time
• Pear Cider and Cigarettes
• Pearl
• Piper

Having seen only Pearl and Piper which I thought were both good (though not amazing), I have no earthly idea which of these films is the favorite or even who should win. Your guess is as good as mine.

SHOULD WIN: Piper
WILL WIN: Pearl
COULD WIN: Piper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• Ennemis Intérieurs
• La Femme et le TGV
• Silent Nights
• Sing
• Timecode

Saw these last weekend and I think any of them could win for various reasons. My absolute favorite is Timecode which is probably the slightest of them all story-wise, but it's also the most delightful. Sing has a very satisfying arc and some great character work. La Femme et le TGV might attract older voters and it's the only film with a recognizable star (always a plus). The latter two were my least favorites, but they were also the most topical. Ennemis Intérieurs was the better of the two but also the most inert film of the five while Silent Nights is just not good in so many sense.

SHOULD WIN: Timecode
WILL WIN: La Femme et le TGV
COULD WIN: Sing

So where does that all leave me in terms of predictions? I predicted La La Land to walk away with a leading 7 wins including Picture/Director/Actress. With the rest of the wealth shared among a few films namely Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Fences, Arrival, etc. And I think Lion, Hell or Hell Water, and Hidden Figures will walk away with no wins. Let's all check back on Sunday and see how wrong I am!