NewFest Film Festival: Day 2

This is me reviewing the films I've seen at this year's NewFest LGBTQ Film Festival. Click here for my other reviews of the festival.

LOS FUERTES (dir. Omar Zúñiga Hidalgo)

Amidst the breathtaking and almost other-worldly landscape of Chile and its coast, LOS FUERTES (Strong Ones) tells a story about two men who meet and fall in love for a brief moment in time before continuing on to their own respectively journeys in life like two gay ships passing each other in the night. It's not a groundbreaking film by any means as countless of other movies in this genre have trodded this very same path, but it almost doesn't matter because you're completely enchanted by the leads played by Samuel González and Antonio Altamirano the same way their characters are to one another. Suffice to say, they're both gorgeous (Altamirano in particularly gives off a Louis Garrell vibe) and their chemistry is off the charts. What I found most fascinating is the film's deftness in giving both men a story beyond their love story which enrichens the characters and their relationship. There's also a lovely thread about trying to achieve independence (the war reenactments, escaping estranged family, starting a business), which grounds the movie and gives you hope in the end.

BREAKING FAST (dir. Mike Mosallam)

This movie made me so hungry with its various displays of food and cooking. It also made me hungry for more films like this i.e. romcoms featuring different kinds of people, in this case a gay Muslim man played by the beautiful (and out and proud actor) Haaz Sleiman. BREAKING FAST centers around Mo played by Sleiman, a devout Muslim doctor who is newly single after the film's prologue, having a difficult time moving on from and reconciling certain aspects of his life. He meets Kal (short for Kal-El aka Superman which also leads to the most adorkable running gag in the film), a working actor with an interesting background that gives him a unique perspective on Sleiman's faith and culture. It's a romcom so expect a lot of sweetness (Chekov's gospel choir, I won't say more), but where this movie goes beyond are the not-so-sweet parts. It puts in the work in discussing what it means to be gay and a practicing Muslim and doesn't settle for clear-cut answers or solutions. More impressive is the movie's treatment of the "gay best friend" Sam, perfectly played by Amin El Gamal. Sassy and armed with the best one-liners, Sam plays Mo's friend and foil, himself Muslim but not as devout. The film uses Sam's different perspectives on faith, masculinity, sexuality, and life in general not just as a counterpoint to Mo's but as valid interpretations worthy of discussion. Watch this movie and feel satisfied afterwards.

SHORT FILM PROGRAM: FREE TO BE ME

After yesterday's foray to beautiful boys, I thought I'd check out what the girls are up to... and then I accidentally clicked on a different program instead which was specifically curated for queer high-school audiences featuring young filmmakers making debuts. It was a happy accident as it provided a glimpse into the future.

My favorite film was the longest clocking in at 26 minutes. SHÉÁR AVORY: TO BE CONTINUED gives us an all-too-brief glimpse of a real life 17-year-old navigating being young and needing support. The shortest film, AND THEN SHE KISSED ME, is essentially a 2-minute music video which I immediately wanted expanded into a full feature. ALL OF THE SIGNS, a short film about two friends trying to guess if a crush is gay or not, is delightfully low-budget in style, but gets high marks in story and humor. Finally, EGGHEAD & TWINKIE and WERE YOU GAY IN HIGH SCHOOL both make interesting use of flashback to tell their stories. Check out the full list of shorts from this program here.

I wonder what Day 3 will bring. Stay tuned and feel free to friend me on Letterboxd if you wish.

NewFest Film Festival: Day 1

In this day and age of closed movie theaters and shifting release dates, I, like many fellow cinephiles, have been taking advantage of what's streaming on Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, HBO Max and the like. It's been an interesting film journey during this pandemic which I might write about someday including trying to check off some "how have I never seen this movie before" bucket list. But I've seen a good amount of stuff from this year as well, but certainly not in the same vein as I would've in a normal year.

Enter NewFest which hosts an LGBTQ Film Festival in New York annually for the last 32 years. Previously I had been able to find the time to usually see a movie or two. This year, however, like most film festivals which haven't been canceled outright, they went virtual which allowed me the opportunity to do something I can also check off from my movie lovers bucket list: purchase an all-access pass to a film festival. And so now for the next 11 days, I can see new/new-ish LGBTQ movies from the comfort of my own home and I'm going to attempt to write about it. 2020 really is something.

Yesterday was the festival's first day. With the Virtual All-Access Streaming Pass, most of the films in their line-up were immediately made available. There are a couple of drive-in specific screenings I can't see (like Opening Night's AMMONITE starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan) and a handful of "spotlight" movies held back for a few days, but for the most part, I can literally watch whatever I wanted. You'd think I'd have trouble choosing, but I knew exactly the two movies I wanted to start with.

MONSOON (dir. Hong Khaou)

Like everyone else, I fell head over heels over Henry Golding in Crazy Rich Asians and when I found out that he was attached to a movie from director Hong Khaou who previously devastated me with Lilting a few years ago, I was beside myself. MONSOON is less traumatic than Hong's earlier movie, but no less affecting. Golding plays Kit returning to Vietnam after escaping it as a child with his mother and brother en route to Britain. Kit's uneasiness is apparent from the get-go as he navigates a world, a language, a culture he barely understands. His search leads him to another wayward soul in the form of Lewis played by the fetching Parker Sawyers. They both bond as unmoored individuals in a foreign country and their chemistry is electric. I wanted more of that, but I get why it wasn't the focal point of the movie. There were a lot of quiet, introspective moments in the film as we see Kit just observing, searching, listening which might have outstayed its welcome for some, but for me I was just fine staring at Henry Golding's face the entire time.

DATING AMBER (dir. David Freyne)

After seeing the aforementioned dramatic film, I knew I had to see a comedy next and I couldn't have picked better than this hilarious coming-of-age film starring two young, captivating actors. Fionn O'Shea and Lola Petticrew respectively play too-sensitive Eddie and too-abrasive Amber who team up by pretend dating to get the bullies at school and their families at home off their backs, because, oh right, they're both gay. DATING AMBER is at once playful and hilarious as well as heartbreaking and moving. O'Shea and Petticrew make an excellent pair making you invested in their parallel, but still unique journeys in accepting themselves for who they are. Set in mid-1990s Ireland, the spectres of homophobia, toxic masculinity and Catholic traditionalism hang over the procedures but the film maintains its feel-good vibe to the end.

SHORT FILM PROGRAM: BEAUTIFUL BOYS, BEAUTIFUL JOURNEYS

One of the selling points of the festival for me this year was its robust short film programs boasting 10 individual programs ranging from 6-9 short films  in each with each set curated by a theme of sorts. So of course I went and checked out these beautiful boys and their beautiful journeys.

My two favorites book-ended the program with QUERY at the beginning and SEE YOU SOON at the end. Both movies feature characters wrestling with the nature of their relationship--two roommates unpacking their straight and maybe not so straight desires in the first and two guys from opposite coasts finally uniting trying to figure out if they can continue this in the second. Another film I really liked, KIND OF, also revolves around this same theme of two characters grappling with their relationships, in this case what it means to be a trans couple in a cis world. Other standouts for me were POMPEII and THE DICK APPOINTMENT which both uses apps and social media to hilarious and poignant results. Check out the full list of shorts from this program here.

Stay tuned for more reviews! In the meantime, feel free to friend me on Letterboxd which I really should use to post short reviews versus just logging all the films I watch.

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

Every awards season has its own unique tone and this one was surprisingly... tame. Perhaps its the shorter and more condensed season giving people less time to marinate on things. Or perhaps it's the odd lock-step of acting wins which everyone seems to be fine with in their inevitable road to the Oscars. Or maybe it's because the top two films vying for the top prize are both pretty damn great with not much to negatively campaign about them. Or we're all just trying to get through an increasingly awful state of reality and staying (relatively) positive over things like the Oscars might just be a defense mechanism. Who knows? It's been nice. Onwards to my thoughts and predictions...

BEST PICTURE

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

The big shock here is the inclusion of Joker and its leading nomination count. And yet it's made the most out of all nominees, people won't stop talking about, and it did win at the Venice Film Festival. The early story of the season is that this was going to be Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time, because legendary directors doing the kind of films the Academy loves seem to make sense. But 1917 is the war movie du jour with its impeccable technical wizadry and is peaking at the perfect time. Speaking of peaking, Parasite is THE movie of the year and it's the one movie everyone (EVERYONE) seems to agree on. I hope the Academy makes history and picks it.

PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: It was always a longshot but The Farewell is my favorite movie of the year and should've been here. It was Knives Out that probably just missed though.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Todd Phillips, Joker
• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Okay, when I said this awards season has been relatively tame, I guess I was mostly talking about the general resigned mood at the end. But let's not forget, or gloss over, that yet again we have an all-male Director line-up when Greta Gerwig and Lulu Wang and so many other women did amazing work this year. I was also pissed that DGA-nominated Taika Waititi was pushed aside for Phillips. Anyways, this is Mendes vs. Joon Ho. Would be a good choice regardless.

PREDICTION: Sam Mendes
ALTERNATE: Bong Joon Ho
FINAL WORD: I said this last year and I'll say it again this year... maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? It's getting old.

BEST ACTRESS

• Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
• Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
• Charlize Theron, Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger, Judy

When Zellweger won last night at the Spirit Awards, I was thinking how insane it is that any one actor (let alone four this year) would practically sweep ALL the awards in a single year. That should NOT be possible with the sheer amount of amazing talent and performances out there. And I LIKE Zellweger's Judy and think she'd make a great Oscar winner. But to get EVERY award when Ronan is doing yet-again stupendous things or when Lupita Nyong'o or Elisabeth Moss or Alfre Woodard or Awkwafina weren't even nominated. It's ridiculous.

PREDICTION: Renee Zellweger
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan
FINAL WORD: I'm still shocked/not shocked about Nyong'o's snub. Do better.

BEST ACTOR

• Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver, Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
• Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Phoenix is the clear frontrunner here and as much as I don't like his film, I'm not too disturbed by him winning his 1st Oscar. I can pretend it's for Her or The Master. In any other year, especially if he hadn't won already, DiCaprio would likely be cleaning up. First nominations for Banderas and Pryce are good things! That said, I'm sad Taron Egerton and Eddie Murphy couldn't break through. Egerton's "snub" particularly hurts especially after Rami Malek actually won an Oscar the previous year for a worse version of similar films and performances.

PREDICTION: Joaquin Phoenix
ALTERNATE: Adam Driver
FINAL WORD: I'm already thinking about next year. I hope Anthony Ramos for In the Heights makes it in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern, Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
• Florence Pugh, Little Women
• Margot Robbie, Bombshell

This category is so dumb. First of all Jennifer Lopez and Zhao Shuzhen should've been no-brainers here and yet. Thankfully Lopez kicked ass at the Super Bowl last weeked and Shuzhen kicked ass at the Spirit Awards last night. Dern is the overwhelming favorite here and I love her and it's great that she'll finally have an Oscar, but this role isn't really "sweeping all awards" worthy. The only one here (okay, I haven't seen Richard Jewell) that feels like a worthy nomination/win is the breakout Pugh.

PREDICTION: Laura Dern
ALTERNATE: Scarlett Johansson
FINAL WORD: Forgot to mention, it's great that Johansson finally got her first (and second) Oscar nomination this year. She deserves both of them. But the optics (with Erivo as a slave as the only POC nomination) aren't great.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
• Al Pacino, The Irishman
• Joe Pesci, The Irishman
• Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

These were pretty much the five that everyone predicted throughout the season with Tracy Letts and Willem Dafoe probably in the long list. The big hope for a Parasite acting nomination was here for Sang Kang Ho, but the category is just full of Oscar winners. The lone nominee who hasn't won an Oscar acting award is Brad Pitt (but he has won non-acting ones) and he's the one to beat. It's pretty much a done deal actually.

PREDICTION: Brad Pitt
ALTERNATE: Brad Pitt.... seriously.
FINAL WORD: Do we buy that Brad's role is actually supporting? I don't.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• The Two Popes

It's a few Best Picture nominees plus The Two Popes. Truly wish they found room for Hustlers or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Or to be honest, Avengers Endgame if they had to give it to a comic book movie. In any case, this is Waititi's award to lose (he won WGA), but Gerwig could be a formidable alternate. If either won, I'd be happy.

PREDICTION: Jojo Rabbit
ALTERNATE: Little Women
FINAL WORD: Can we just have a tie? Think of their joint speech!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Knives Out
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

This is a very interesting race. Everyone thought Tarantino would walk away with this award all season and he did win Critics Choice/Golden Globe. But Baumbach has been the indie darling and recently won the Spirit Awards and Joon Ho surprisingly came out on top at the WGA. And everyone seems to love Knives Out. I AM shocked 1917 made it in at least over The Farewell, Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, etc.

PREDICTION: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE: Marriage Story
FINAL WORD: I'm not predicting Parasite, but if it wins here (and it has a strong chance), then Best Picture might be in the bag as well.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• Corpus Christi
• Honeyland
• Les Miserables
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite

As I previously mention, Parasite has been the movie of the year. It's going to win here. There's no doubt. I think there'll be riots if it doesn't win. Honeyland is apparently the first documentary to be nominated here?

PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: If it doesn't win, the world will end
FINAL WORD: France didn't pick Portrait of a Lady on a Fire. And now we have to wait forever (next week) to see it. GO PARASITE!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
• I Lost My Body
• Klaus
• Missing Link
• Toy Story 4

What a weird year! No room for the highest-grossing animated film of all time (Frozen 2)? Or critically-acclaimed Weathering with You? Anyways, other than The Hidden World, the other films have won various awards this season keeping this awards in flux. Would Disney power Toy Story 4 to a win? Would they finally give Laika an awards (for Missing Link)? How about Netflix's two audacious offerings? We'll see!

PREDICTION: Toy Story 4
ALTERNATE: Missing Link
FINAL WORD: My sentimental favorite is How to Train Your Dragon. It hasn't won one! And as much as I'd love Laika to win one as a studio, Missing Link has been my least favorite of their output.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• The Irishman
• Joker
• The Lighthouse
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Lots of beautifully-made films here. I think ASC winner Roger Deakins will get his 2nd Oscar this year especially with so many people in love with 1917's technical prowess. The nod with The Lighthouse is inspired.

PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: The Irishman
FINAL WORD: Parasite, Ad Astra, and Ford v. Ferrari were likely in their longlist.

BEST FILM EDITING

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Parasite

Parasite's inclusion here signals strong support for the film and with its ACE Eddies win, it's the unlikely frontrunner especially with 1917 not nominated here.

PREDICTION: Parasite
ALTERNATE: Joker
FINAL WORD: Remember when Bohemian Rhapsody won last year. The darkest timeline.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

Apparently, the Academy only saw like 12 films this year. ANYWAYS, the ADG Awards went to Parasite and Once Upon a Time. And it's going to be either one of those two and I'm leaning towards the latter because well... Old Hollywood and all.

PREDICTION: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE: Parasite
FINAL WORD: But that Parasite house though.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I screamed on Oscar nomination morning when Dolemite is My Name was left out. I was also holding out hope for Downton Abbey here or more unlikely, Avengers Endgame. And to be honest, Hustlers should've been here for Jennifer Lopez's fur alone. As for the winner, who knows? CDG gave it to two films not nominated and Jojo Rabbit while the BAFTAs went with Little Women. And still the other films might be more to Hollywood's tastes. So?

PREDICTION: Jojo Rabbit
ALTERNATE: Little Women
FINAL WORD: No, but really what disrespect to Ruth E. Carter.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Avengers Endgame
• The Irishman
• 1917
• The Lion King
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I can't believe the de-aging of The Irishman made it here because it was SO DAMN DISTRACTING. I'm also shocked that 1917 made it in, because its effects actually weren't too showy? I do wish Avengers get this. How can you not give the highest grossing film of all time any Oscars?

PREDICTION: Avengers Endgame
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: Imagine if Cats had been nominated? The fact that it was even included in the long list was HILARIOUS and ridiculous.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

• Bombshell
• Joker
• Judy
• Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
• 1917

It's the first year that this category has 5 nominees. It was always weird to me this only had 3. EVERY film has makeup and hair. Anyways, it's probably between Bombshell or Judy because the transformations are OBVIOUS. I'm pissed that Rocketman wasn't included here. I would've picked it for the win.

PREDICTION: Judy
ALTERNATE: Bombshell
FINAL WORD: Also pissed that Dolemite is My Name and Little Women weren't included here. Do better.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• American Factory
• The Cave
• The Edge of Democracy
• For Sama
• Honeyland

This is a good list, but my two favorite documentaries of the year--Maiden and Apollo 11--weren't included and I'm sad. That said, I've seen 3 of these and they ranged from good to excellent (my favorite is probably the deeply personal For Sama). American Factory has the Netflix/Obama factor though that might give it the edge.

PREDICTION: American Factory
ALTERNATE: Honeyland
FINAL WORD: But seriously, check out Maiden. It felt like a movie thriller.

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Ford v Ferrari
• Joker
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Other than Joker, these nominations makes sense. You'd think it'd be between 1917 and Ford v Ferrari and same goes to the Sound Mixing award.

PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Ad Astra
• Ford v Ferrari
• Joker
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is Ad Astra's sole nod. Weird. Anyways, see above.

PREDICTION: 1917
ALTERNATE: Ford v Ferrari

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker's Hildur Guðnadóttir is the first woman to be nominated in this category and she's the front runner! Again, I'm not a fan of the film, but I wouldn't be sad about this win. I personally would given it to either Little Women's Alexandre Desplat or 1917's Thomas Newman (who's the Susan Lucci of this category).

PREDICTION: Joker
ALTERNATE: 1917
FINAL WORD: John Williams is a true legend, but... stop. Star Wars doesn't have to be nominated every single time.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4
• "I’m Gonna Love Me Again," Rocketman
• "I’m Standing With You," Breakthrough
• "Into the Unknown," Frozen 2
• "Stand Up," Harriet

The wrong song from Frozen 2 was nominated. No "Glasgow" from Wild Rose. No surprise nomination for Parasite's original song. They passed over the fun "Catchy Song" from Lego Movie 2 or the original song from Aladdin. But sure, let's nominate some dirge from Diane Warren.

PREDICTION: I'm Gonna Love Me Again
ALTERNATE: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away
FINAL WORD: I'm just going to listen to "Show Yourself" a bunch of times.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Brotherhood
• Nefta Football Club
• The Neighbors’ Window
• Saria
• A Sister

I try to watch this every year, but I skipped last year and didn't find the time this year. I hate the shortened Oscar season.

PREDICTION: Saria
ALTERNATE: The Neighbors' Window

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Dcera
• Hair Love
• Kitbull
• Memorable
• Sister

I've only seen Hair Love and it's wonderful.

PREDICTION: Hair Love
ALTERNATE: Sister

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• In the Absence
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
• Life Overtakes Me
• St. Louis Superman
• Walk Run Cha-Cha

I've only seen Life Overtakes Me. It's okay, but I think could've been much better. So I have no idea what to say

PREDICTION: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
ALTERNATE: In the Absence

So I predicted Parasite to get 3 Oscars including Best Picture while 1917 walks home with the most at 4 wins including Best Director. I actually think that might be too small for 1917, but I'm all about predicting spread-the-wealth sort of thing. I do hope Parasite gets those 3 wins (and maybe more)?

Click here for my picks on who should win.

Best Picture Tweets

Since I don't do regular reviews, I depend on my quick takes on twitter to remember what I thought of movies I've seen over the year. I don't do it for every film, but I do try to do it for films I really like or films that might be nominated for Oscars.

And so in the order of when I saw the movies, here are my initial reactions for the Best Picture nominees this year...

I enjoyed Brad and Leo's natural chemistry with each other and Leo in particular was impressive in everything QT had him do. His scenes with the little girl were my favorite. Movie certainly did NOT need to be that long and Robbie was a bit of a non-entity?

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) July 26, 2019

With that said... surprisingly we all agreed that the last third of the film was its strongest highlighted by how breathtakingly ICONIC Phoenix's #Joker looked and felt. We also agreed Joaquin blew the role out of the water. His face is SO interesting.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) October 6, 2019

PARASITE is damn good. And I totally get why people have said to go into the movie cold but if you're like me and you were slightly unsure to see it because you thought it'd be TOO weird or a horror film... it's neither. So now go forth and see it! 🍑

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) October 18, 2019

JOJO RABBIT is pretty amazing. The kid actors were absolutely superb. I laughed. I cried. ALSO there was a Q+A afterwards and Taika Waititi himself was in attendance! He is HIGHlarious. Thanks @FPNYC for the free tickets. #JojoRabbit pic.twitter.com/cGI4yt2Ec5

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) October 20, 2019

Like the movie's emotional je ne sais quoi doesn't REALLY hit until Jupe's character asks one of the adults "Have you ever been on fire?" The movie then takes on a new level after that moment. #FordVsFerrari

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) November 15, 2019

Both leads--Scarlett and Adam--are magnificent. But hey let's give it up to Merritt Wever. Her whole serving paper bit needs to be re-cut as a short film and it should win all the awards.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 24, 2019

LITTLE WOMEN is just absolutely delightful. I'm going to need Gerwig/Ronan/Chalamet to keep working together forever.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 27, 2019

Well, I REALLY liked the last 40 minutes or so of THE IRISHMAN. The movie is 3 hours and 29 minutes long.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 29, 2019

Oh and Roger Deakins is a fucking master. Those night sequences are *chefs kiss*. #1917Movie

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) January 12, 2020

Of course, there are some other films that probably should've been nominated for Best Picture. So let's see what my initial thoughts on those as well...

THE FAREWELL is a magnificent film. It's so rare for a heart-wrenching story to also be side-splittingly hilarious. It's very probably my favorite film of the year so far. For the love of everything good, everyone should see this movie ASAP.

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) July 21, 2019

Oh. My. God. #AvengersEndgame

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) April 28, 2019

🎂👨‍👧‍👦👩‍⚕️💉🗡️💩🍩🤮 #KnivesOut

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) December 1, 2019

BOOKSMART is so good. And so funny. The ensemble was also a pleasant surprise. Go see it in theaters because we need more movies like this!

— Ryan ❄️ (@sortathatguy) May 25, 2019

My Personal Oscar Ballot 2020

I can't believe the Oscars are tomorrow already! This speedy af awards season isn't my preference, but what can I do. Anyways, before we see the Oscars make probably stupid decisions (see Best Picture/Actor last year), let's take a look if they went with everything *I* wanted. Presenting, my personal ballot...

Note: For Best Picture, Academy voters are asked to rank their choices. For the other categories, they are only asked to pick their choice of winner, which is exactly what I've done.

Best Picture
1 - Parasite
2 - Little Women
3 - Jojo Rabbit
4 - 1917
5 - Marriage Story
6 - Ford v. Ferrari
7 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 - The Irishman
9 - Joker

Best Director: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Best Lead Actor: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Best Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh, Little Women
Best Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite
Best Documentary: For Sama
Best Original Score: 1917
Best Original Song: "Into the Unknown," Frozen 2
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Production Design: Parasite
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Makeup and Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Sound Mixing: Ad Astra
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame
Best Live Action Short: The Neighbors' Window
Best Animated Short: Hair Love
Best Documentary Short: In the Absence

I went a little Parasite/Little Women crazy, but as they are my top two favorite Best Picture films (and likely my personal top 10 for the year), it makes sense. 1917 also did well, on the strength of its technical achievements. If only the Academy had my awesome taste, right?

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

This has been a weird year. A really, really weird year. First, the Academy seemed to have lost their damn minds in reaction to getting "low" ratings last year. What followed is a series of hilarious and inane directives they thought would improve ratings only to be met with swift and deserved backlash. Most of those were reversed, but awards season had its own drama separate from that. Can a black-and-white Netflix film really be the front-runner? Did the major guilds really give their awards to historically more films? Did a mediocre film directed by Bryan Singer actually maintain Oscar momentum? What is going the fuck on? Well, on to my thoughts and predictions...

BEST PICTURE

• Black Panther (7 nominations)
• BlacKkKlansman (6 nominations)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (5 nominations)
• The Favourite (10 nominations)
• Green Book (5 nominations)
• Roma (10 nominations)
• A Star Is Born (8 nominations)
• Vice (8 nominations)

A few solid picks, a couple historic-making films, and some really mediocre movies. Sounds about right. A few films that probably were on the long list include Eighth Grade, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, and First Man which honestly would've been a better choice that a few picks here. The film to beat is also the unlikeliest to win based on history. Roma after all is a foreign language film and from a streaming platform. But what other films could win? Green Book's facile attempt at race relations appeals to Academy's more conservative members (see Driving Miss Daisy, Crash) while BlacKkKlansman offers a more timely and more thoughtful experience.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Green Book
FINAL WORD: While I love Roma, my pick would've been The Favourite. But even if it walks home empty-handed the fact that a Lanthimos film got 10 Oscar nominations is a minor miracle. Click here for my first thoughts on the BP nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
• Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
• Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
• Adam McKay, Vice

It's insane that this is Spike Lee's first nomination, but thankfully here he is and for a damn good film. The inclusion of Pawlikowski, Lanthimos and Cuarón (hopefully) speaks to the more internationally diverse Academy. McKay... is nominated. Over Bradley Cooper. Over Ryan Coogler. Over the various women who made wonderful films this year. But hey, at least Bryan Singer is nowhere to be found. This is Cuarón's award to lose.

PREDICTION: Alfonso Cuarón
ALTERNATE: Spike Lee
FINAL WORD: If they pick anyone but McKay, it'll be a good year. But maybe look at the amazing women making films next year? This is getting absolutely tiresome.



BEST ACTRESS

• Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
• Glenn Close, The Wife
• Olivia Colman, The Favourite
• Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I think people saw Close, Colman, and Gaga from a mile away. And while Close is very nearly the favorite to pick up her first (!) Oscar, it's actually competitive with Colman possibly playing the spoiler especially with her film garnering 10 nominations to Close's sole nod. McCarthy picking up her second nod for such an unlikely film makes me smile as does Aparicio getting a nod on her debut film!

PREDICTION: Glenn Close
ALTERNATE: Olivia Colman
FINAL WORD: They went heavily with drama instead of horror (Toni Collette) and musical (Emily Blunt). Hopefully both will get their dues soon. But Close! Colman! Whoever wins, it's going to be a GREAT speech.

BEST ACTOR

• Christian Bale, Vice
• Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

This category fills me with much dread with four performances from films that range from mediocre to awful. The only performance from a film I liked is Cooper's and it's insane to me that he isn't a front-runner especially since he was blanked on a directing nomination. Instead Malek is inexplicably the likely winner and while he wasn't bad, the whole packaging of the performance and the film have left an immense bad taste in my mouth. Unfortunate since I actually like him.

PREDICTION: Rami Malek
ALTERNATE: Bradley Cooper
FINAL WORD: How about for the next few years we award those playing original characters as opposed to real life people? If we did that this year... guess what... Bradley Cooper wins by default! UGH.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Vice
• Marina de Tavira, Roma
• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone, The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

De Tavira's inclusion here signaled the strong support for her film, because she literally didn't appear anywhere else during the precursors. It was a refreshing surprise especially for a role that could've easily gone unnoticed. Category fraud aside, I do love Stone/Weisz and in love with what they did in their film. Adams will win her Oscar someday and King will probably win her first this year. Other names on the probable long list include Claire Foy, Michelle Yeoh (sigh), Emily Blunt, and Nicole Kidman.

PREDICTION: Regina King
ALTERNATE: Rachel Weisz
FINAL WORD: Other than Stone, I think anyone can win here. It's weirdly in flux even though King dominated awards season. But the lack of a SAG and BAFTA nomination makes her vulnerable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book
• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell, Vice

It makes sense that Ali has become the front-runner. A lot people like the film and more like him as a person. Plus he's practically a lead. It is unfortunate though since as much as I like him, I think Driver/Elliot/Grant are more deserving winners especially Grant. Rockwell's nomination is absolutely ridiculous as was his win last year (and I like him!). It's especially egregious due to all the people who could've taken his place like Timothée Chalamet, Michael B Jordan, Alessandro Nivola, Colman Domingo, and Steven Yeun. Harsh.

PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali
ALTERNATE: Sam Elliott
FINAL WORD: Grant has been having the time of his life post-Oscar nod and it'd be thrilling if he pulled off the upset, but I'm not predicting it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

I'm personally offended that Crazy Rich Asians or Black Panther weren't nominated here, but the Academy gonna do its thing I guess even though both films made a lot of money and were critically acclaimed. Buster Scruggs' inclusion shocked me a but, but Coen brothers are practically royalty here. Anyways, this is the category that might just get Spike Lee (for BlacKkKlansman) his first Oscars.

PREDICTION: BlacKkKlansman
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: Can You Ever Forgive Me? won the WGA which was a minor shock. I wouldn't be surprised if it won here, but I do think it's between Lee and Jenkins.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

WGA-winner Eighth Grade should've been here and it's aggressively obnoxious that it wasn't included especially over the likes of Green Book and Vice. In any case, this is a wide open category. Literally any of these films can win. Your guess is as good as anyone else's at this point.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: First Reformed
FINAL WORD: My personal pick here would be The Favourite or Roma. I'm not the biggest fan of the rest and I'm still pissed that Eighth Grade wasn't nominated.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum (Lebanon)
• Cold War (Poland)
• Never Look Away (Germany)
• Roma (Mexico)
• Shoplifters (Japan)

I've only seen Roma, but I have Shoplifters in DVD to watch this weekend. Cold War, especially with its Directing nod, is also a strong contender. Roma is the favorite, but if the Academy think that'll be awarded elsewhere (like Picture/Director), they might be compelled to give this award to another film. And why not give it to the Cannes-winning film?

PREDICTION: Cold War
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: I haven't seen it yet, but Burning had a lot of fans. And The Cakemaker didn't even make the longlist.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This list was pretty set awhile ago with no big shocker one way or another. Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs were probably fighting for the win most of the year until Into the Spider-Verse came out and just absolutely changed the conversation entirely by its dazzling visuals and perfect script. If there's any justice in the world, that film would win easily, but unfortunately it's not the almighty Disney (see How to Train Your Dragon 2 losing to Big Hero 6).

PREDICTION: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
ALTERNATE: Incredibles 2
FINAL WORD: We are all Spider-Man.

BEST FILM EDITING

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Green Book
• The Favourite
• Vice

Increasingly this category has come to awarding film with the most and obvious editing. So if that's the case, it's likely going to either Vice or ACE-winner Bohemian Rhapsody. Since I'm not a fan of either film, I'm hoping neither one of them gets it. How Roma or First Man or any of this year's critically acclaimed documentaries didn't get nominated perplexes me to no end.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: I'm too despondent to say anything else. Only to cheer BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite to "upset" this category.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Black Panther
• First Man
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

As opposed to editing, this technical category is actually chock full of good films and surprisingly, good production design! What a word! This is probably The Favourite's to win, but hilariously there isn't a favorite this year.

PREDICTION: The Favourite
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Roma is probably the more accomplished, but The Favourite is more noticeable. Both are damn worthy.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

Most people were shocked at Never Look Away, but Deschanel is a big name so it's less shocking in retrospect. With that said, the lack of First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk is frustrating. Anyways, this is Roma vs. Cold War.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Cold War
FINAL WORD: Hey, remember when Deakins finally won last year? That's a good memory.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

This is a fun category even though the lack of contemporary films like Crazy Rich Asians and A Simple Favor makes this feel incomplete. With that said, this is a difficult one to predict. I'm thinking it's between Powell (The Favourite) or Carter (Black Panther) and with Powell double-nominated (nominated for Mary Poppins as well), that might just make a difference in Carter's favor.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: The Favourite
FINAL WORD: Seriously, what do contemporary films need to do to get some traction here?!

BEST VISUAL EFFCTS

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

It's actually refreshing to see Black Panther not nominated here, because it really didn't deserve it. I am sad to see Ant-Man and the Wasp miss out here, but this is probably where the Academy can give a deserved win to the much maligned First Man which should've been a blockbuster hit with so many more nominations.

PREDICTION: First Man
ALTERNATE: Avengers: Infinity War
FINAL WORD: Seriously, that moon landing sequence is just *chef's kiss*.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice

Suspiria was probably the big miss here, but Best Picture films like The Favourite, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman felt like they could've been considered here. At least Bohemian Rhapsody and its teeth weren't nominated.

PREDICTION: Vice
ALTERNATE: Border
FINAL WORD: Seriously, thank goodness Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG

How the fuck do they not nominate Mister Rogers? Isn't that sacrilegous or something? It's also surprising to see them not nominate the much buzzed Three Identical Strangers. With that said, this genre's other big hits are present here--Free Solo, Minding the Gap, and RBG--and I'll be shocked if one of these don't win. I love them all so it's a win-win-win either way.

PREDICTION: Free Solo
ALTERNATE: Minding the Gap
FINAL WORD: Seriously, I probably saw more documentaries this year than any year and this category is so good this year. Can we have ties?
BEST SOUND EDITING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Surprisingly this is A Quiet Place's one and only nomination and honestly, it should win this. But my sentimental pick is First Man. Roma is probably the best choice overall, but sadly Bohemian Rhapsody is the favorite because everyone loves Queen I guess.

PREDICTION: Bohemian Rhapsody
ALTERNATE: Roma
FINAL WORD: Just sing Queen in karaoke and stop giving it awards!

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

I don't have any additional thoughts here, but again Bohemian Rhapsody is probably the one to beat with Roma or First Man as the alternate pick.

PREDICTION: Roma
ALTERNATE: Bohemian Rhapsody
FINAL WORD: Is this real life? Is this just fantasy?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

It's a good list, but First Man was the favorite going into the nominations and when it didn't get in, it suddenly became a free-for-all. I honestly have no idea who's going to win here, but well First Man was absolutely robbed.

PREDICTION: Black Panther
ALTERNATE: If Beale Street Could Talk
FINAL WORD: [listens to First Man's score]

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "All The Stars," Black Panther
• "I’ll Fight," RBG
• "The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
• "Shallow," A Star Is Born
• "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings," The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

They could've had Dolly Parton or Lin-Manuel Miranda, but alas. And now Emily Blunt and Kendrick Lamar are not performing (though Bette Midler is taking Blunt's place...which okay). OBVIOUSLY this is Lady Gaga's Oscar to lose. Take that Glenn Close!

PREDICTION: "Shallow"
ALTERNATE: "All The Stars"
FINAL WORD: In the sha-ha, sha-ha-ha-low...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Detainment
• Fauve
• Marguerite
• Mother
• Skin

Apparently this year's slate is extra depressing. I usually watch these every year, but I took a pass this year. Marguerite is the sole non-kill-me-now film so I'll pick that for the win.

PREDICTION: Marguerite
ALTERNATE: Mother

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Animal Behaviour
• Bao
• Late Afternoon
• One Small Step
• Weekends

I was going to see this slate since Live Action was bleak, but I also didn't get a chance. I saw Bao in front of Incredibles 2 and it IS created by Asian filmmakers.

PREDICTION: Bao
ALTERNATE: One Small Step

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Black Sheep
• End Game
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Period. End of Sentence.

A couple of these are on Netflix and a couple more are available to stream elsewhere. Period. End of Sentence is probably the lightest of them all, but also most accessible. Lifeboat and A Night at the Garden are most timely.

PREDICTION: Lifeboat
ALTERNATE: Period. End of Sentence.

So I'm predicting 5 wins for Roma including Picture/Director while the only other films getting multiple wins being Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and Vice. The other fun thing is that apparently I'm predicting all the Best Picture nominees to walk away with at least one award. Will the Oscars actually be so spread-the-wealth? It's not often this happens so I'm probably really, really wrong. Anyways, we'll all see tomorrow! Still no host! Unless it's Whoopi Goldberg. But probably not though.

Click here for my picks on who should win.

Best Picture Tweets

Less than a week until the Oscars! It's been an interesting season to say the least. There's been a lot of commentaries both about the films and their bigger cultural significance. There were even more quick hot takes and shifting opinions. So with that said, let's take a look at my initial thoughts on the Best Picture nominees via my twitter reactions right after I saw the films.

In the order of when I saw the movies/tweeted about them...

Oh and yeah, I'm going to need a movie, TV show, short documentary... whatever... featuring Shuri, Nakia, and/or Okoye. And I needed this yesterday. #BlackPanther

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) February 19, 2018

So #BlacKkKlansman is great. Go see it. The ending.... is so obvious and yet so perfect. The (majority white) audience I saw it with was completely silent in the end.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) August 12, 2018

I saw A STAR IS BORN today. It's good, even reaching great at times. It's not a masterpiece. More thoughts later.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) October 6, 2018

Oh, I saw BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY today as well and... Queen has a lot of great songs. And... it's certainly a good film for a PG-13 film overseen by the other members of the band.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) November 11, 2018

More thoughts! First, that dance sequence is beyond. Second, Colman/Stone/Weisz are perfect but Nicholas Hoult is the biggest diva of them all. Third, the costumes/locations were so pretty, it hurt. Finally, I'm still surprised at all the bunnies.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) November 25, 2018

On the one hand, I actually ended up really liking THE GREEN BOOK. Mortensen and Ali are so charming, esp. together. On the other hand, I don't disagree with much of this... https://t.co/B0jMqAo5ku

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) December 2, 2018

Acknowledging that Christian Bale is pretty damn good in it, I couldn't wait for VICE to be over. It was interminable.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) January 11, 2019

Finally saw ROMA and it's an absolute wonder. And now knowing the context of THIS shot... gives me tremendous amount of emotion. pic.twitter.com/sJywxbHVar

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) February 15, 2019

And since I saw just a few more films this year which probably should have been nominated for Best Picture, I'll share my initial tweets on those films as well...

FIRST MAN is stupendous. Such audacious filmmaking.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) October 14, 2018

Wow. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE is so very amazing. I am going to be seeing that several more times. Seriously fantastic.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) December 15, 2018

Just saw the movie EIGHT GRADE by Bo Burnham. It's great...
LAUGHED during the banana scene.
CRINGED during the car scene.
CRIED during the fire burning scene.
SQUEED during the first date scene.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) July 22, 2018

And yes Melissa McCarthy is very good in CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? Still very humorous as is her brand but with a dash of caustic delightfulness.

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) November 18, 2018

I only cried a handful of times. I cannot wait to abuse my AMC subscription seeing this a bazillion times. #CrazyRichAsians

— Ryan (@sortathatguy) August 19, 2018

The Oscars are this coming Sunday on ABC! No host this year. Things can get wild!

My Personal Oscar Ballot 2019

The Oscars are coming! And while the Academy has done its best to make this year as ridiculous as ever with their inane decisions, let's focus on the movies shall we? Below would be my personal ballot if I was an Academy member. Real members have until this Tuesday to make their final picks. Hope at least a few of them spend their holiday weekend catching up on films.

Note: For Best Picture, Academy voters are asked to rank their choices. For the other categories, they are only asked to pick their choice of winner, which is exactly what I've done.

Best Picture
1 - The Favourite
2 - Roma
3 - BlacKkKlansman
4 - Black Panther
5 - A Star Is Born
6 - Green Book
7 - Bohemian Rhapsody
8 - Vice

Best Director: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Best Lead Actor: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Best Lead Actress: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Best Animated Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Documentary: Free Solo
Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song: "Shallow," A Star Is Born
Best Editing: BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Costume Design: Black Panther
Best Makeup and Hair: Mary Queen of Scots
Best Sound Editing: First Man
Best Sound Mixing: First Man
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity Wars
Best Live Action Short: Marguerite
Best Animated Short: Bao
Best Documentary Short: A Night at the Garden

The Favourite was clearly my... favorite, topping out with 5 awards. A few films picked up a couple of awards: BlacKkKlansman, A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma and First Man. While Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice walk away empty-handed. That'd be nice.

Thoughts on Oscar Noms and Predictions

A little bit more than 24 hours from now, we'll know all the winners as well as the also-rans of the 90th Academy Awards. On the one hand, the awards season was and still is unpredictable. Does anyone really know what's winning Best Picture or which film will get the most wins? On the other hand, those acting races were way more competitive early on before the usual precursors rubber-stamped all the winners. The lesson though of last year's ceremony though is... unexpected things can still happen. Will it this year? Who knows?

BEST PICTURE

• Call Me by Your Name (4 nominations)
• Darkest Hour (6 nominations)
• Dunkirk (8 nominations)
• Get Out (4 nominations)
• Lady Bird (5 nominations)
• Phantom Thread (6 nominations)
• The Post (2 nominations)
• The Shape of Water (13 nominations)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7 nominations)

I think some people expected The Florida Project to sneak in here, but the rest had been in the conversation early enough with momentum ebbing and flowing from one film to the next. I think the three films vying for the win are Three Billboards (lots of precursor love), The Shape of Water (top nominee + slam dunk directing win), and Get Out (preferential ballot favorite + film of the year). Dunkirk is probably the dark horse and could've been the favorite a few years ago (WWII film with lots of technical wizardry).

PREDICTION: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
ALTERNATE: Get Out
FINAL WORD: Can the beautifully gay indie film pull off the shocking upset again please?

BEST DIRECTOR

• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele, Get Out
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Honestly, I love this shortlist. I probably would've replaced Anderson with Luca Guadagnino or Sean Baker, but really no actual complaints here. I mean look at these names! Just one of Del Toro, Peele, or Gerwig would've been thrilling enough, but all three? Plus this is Nolan's FIRST Oscar nomination for directing. While I think Peele should win this hands down, there's no bad choices here and the likely winner Del Toro would certainly be a wonderful champ.

PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro
ALTERNATE: Jordan Peele
FINAL WORD: In its 90 years, Gerwig is only the 5th woman and Peele is only the 5th black director to be nominated. Damn.

BEST ACTRESS

• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep, The Post

Ronan and Hawkins picking up critical awards, Robbie getting her breakthrough moment, and Streep doing her usual best work... plus Emma Stone one-upping her Oscar winning performance last year, Jessica Chastain challenging herself, Daniela Vega being a revelation. Could've been a great race. I don't begrudge McDormand. She's awesome and I'll be happy for her to pick up her 2nd Oscars tomorrow, but what could've been.

PREDICTION: Frances McDorman
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan
FINAL WORD: I actually love all of these performances but man Ronan should've been the frontrunner from the beginning.

BEST ACTOR

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I'm most excited for Kaluuya's nomination here. It helps that his film is a cultural phenomenon, but I think a lot of people miss the brilliance in his subtle performance. Also thrilled for Chalamet who has carried the "breakthrough revelation" label since the film premiered more than a year ago in Sundance. One of those two SHOULD be winning, but it'll go to Oldman because he plays Winston Churchill. He was always the favorite, sight unseen, and well yeah.

PREDICTION: Gary Oldman
ALTERNATE: Daniel Day-Lewis
FINAL WORD: Chalamet would be a lot of people's alternate, but Oscars love Day-Lewis and for his "final film"? Weirder things.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

From the very beginning this was thought to be a two-woman race between Metcalf and Janney, two very well-loved veterans. In fact Metcalf did get some critical love early on, but Janney's flashier role and bigger personality made her dominant through awards season and her first Oscar will be the bow on top. Raise a glass through to some also-rans which had some buzz like Tiffany Haddish, Holly Hunter, and Hong Chau.

PREDICTION: Allison Janney
ALTERNATE: Laurie Metcalf
FINAL WORD: The Academy doesn't do ties, but think about it just this once maybe?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Let's get the Kevin Spacey pink elephant out of the way. Plummer's nomination is remarkable. He filmed his scenes in NOVEMBER. Is this the Academy praising his work or sticking it to a disgraced Spacey or them giving a nod to the changing landscape. Who can say? Anyways, Three Billboards doubling up here is indicative of the movie's strength and Rockwell will take that to victory. Dafoe had some buzz early on, but as with all the other acting categories, this one is won and done.

PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell
ALTERNATE: Willem Dafoe
FINAL WORD: They couldn't have doubled up with Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer on Call Me By Your Name instead? Stuhlbarg was robbed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Call Me by Your Name
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound

With the biggest films in the other screenplay category, this is the best shot for Call Me By Your Name to not walk home empty-handed tomorrow and the best shot for James Ivory to pick up his first Oscar win. He's the favorite, but some people seem weirdly put off by the film (they are dumb). I guess the question is, even if they are, which film would take its place? No one can seem to agree to that, so... win?

PREDICTION: Call Me By Your Name
ALTERNATE: Molly's Game
FINAL WORD: I might riot if James Ivory doesn't win. We all should.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards

With 4 Best Pictures in the mix, this is probably the most competitive category of the night. You can make a case for any one of them to win this. As an aside, I'm happy that indie hit The Big Sick got recognized here. General consensus seems to have it as a two-film race between Get Out and Three Billboards and I do hope it goes to the first since it's likely will be its one award.

PREDICTION: Three Billboards
ALTERNATE: Get Out
FINAL WORD: I'm predicting to protect my disappointment, but also I want to put it out in the world that Lady Bird winning would be freaking awesome.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
• The Insult (Lebanon)
• Loveless (Russia)
• On Body and Soul (Hungary)
• The Square (Sweden)

I've only seen two of them, A Fantastic Woman (amazing) and On Body and Soul (not bad at all). And have heard good stuff about the others. Shortlisted films that didn't make the cut that some people really liked included The Wound, Felicite and In the Fade which people thought could've been favored to win here. And then there's France's BPM being shocking short list omission. The Academy should feel shameful regarding that.

PREDICTION: A Fantastic Woman
ALTERNATE: The Square
FINAL WORD: I actually have no idea who's favored to win here, but I do know you should try to watch all of these.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

As someone who actually liked The Boss Baby, this category still feels awfully thin this year, doesn't it? Last year a Finding Nemo sequel which I really liked didn't get nominated and I was OKAY because the category was stacked. Anyways, Pixar's wonderful Coco is the odds-on favorite this year and is probably the lockiest win tomorrow night apart from the acting awards.

PREDICTION: Coco
ALTERNATE: The Breadwinner
FINAL WORD: Coco should win for its gorgeous rendering of the Land of the Dead alone and making me ugly cry a lot.

BEST FILM EDITING

• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk
• I, Tonya
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards

Convention says a Best Picture film wins this and with Dunkirk being the most OBVIOUSLY edited, it's the frontrunner. And yet Baby Driver could take some of these technical awards in a surprise.

PREDICTION: Dunkirk
ALTERNATE: Baby Driver
FINAL WORD: Three Billboards getting in here instead of Get Out is a travesty.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water

If the want to go with MOST then Beauty and the Beast could challenge here. If they want to go with PERIOD then Dunkirk or Darkest Hour. If they want to go with CREATIVE, perhaps Blade Runner. But I think Shape of Water has a bit of all of those so I think it'll win.

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Call Me By Your Name's Italian villa with its books and various fruits was perfection.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound
• The Shape of Water

This is the technical category everyone is excited about. And why not? We have Mudbound's Rachel Morrison as the FIRST EVER woman to ever be nominated in this category. And this year could actually be it for 14-time nominated Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) to get his first Oscar! Dunkirk and Darkest Hour with their WWII epicness will challenge, but #Oscar4Deakins.

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Seriously, give it to Deakins already.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Mighty River," Mudbound
• "Mystery of Love," Call Me by Your Name
• "Remember Me," Coco
• "Stand Up for Something," Marshall
• "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

Early last year I thought Celine Dion's Beauty & the Beast song had this in the bag. Thankfully the year brought us some more great choices and this shortlist is stacked with not only quality, but talent. Last year's champs Pasek and Paul are the front-runners with "This is Me," their underdog anthem that's a big hit with film and music audiences. And as much as I love that song, I'm hoping "Mystery of Love" or "Remember Me" pull off the upset. Actually, I'm good with a three-way tie.

PREDICTION: "This Is Me"
ALTERNATE: "Remember Me"
FINAL WORD: I cannot wait for all of these performances!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Dunkirk
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Three Billboards

John Williams could get his 6th win for Star Wars, but I think it's a two-man race between Alexandre Desplat's delicate work on The Shape of Water and Hans Zimmer's bombastic work on Dunkirk. If Three Billboards win here, it'll probably take Best Picture.

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
ALTERNATE: Dunkirk
FINAL WORD: Congrats on Johnny Greenwood's first nomination for Phantom Thread.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Blade Runner 2049
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
• Kong: Skull Island
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

I'd probably replace either Guardians or Kong for Thor: Ragnarok and I was a bit surprised by the exclusions of The Shape of Water and Dunkirk, but overall a nice list. It's also hard to predict since "most" in this case is pretty much all of them plus all of them got good reviews.

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
ALTERNATE: War for the Planet of the Apes
FINAL WORD: They haven't felt the need to reward Apes franchise yet (a bummer). Could this be the year?

BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

These are two different categories, but since they have the same nominees, I thought I'd put them together. Plus I think this year the same film is going to win them both. I have no idea what it'll be. Dunkirk is the obvious choice, but I think Baby Driver and Blade Runner are right there.

PREDICTION (for both): Dunkirk
ALTERNATE (for both): Baby Driver
FINAL WORD: One of these days I'll remember the difference.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Darkest Hour
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Victoria & Abdul

Frankly I was more partial to the pitch perfect period stylings of Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name not to mention the wonderfully flash and trashy costumes in I, Tonya, but alas. This is an easy win for Phantom Thread, right?

PREDICTION: Phantom Thread
ALTERNATE: Beauty and the Beast
FINAL WORD: Is Doug Jones' creature a costume? If so, maybe they should win for dat ass alone.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• Darkest Hour
• Victoria & Abdul
• Wonder

These were all a bit expected once the finalists were named, but I, Tonya really should've been here. A moment of silence for the makeup artist for Kevin Spacey on All the Money in the World.

PREDICTION: Darkest Hour
ALTERNATE: Victoria & Abdul
FINAL WORD: Can't wait to never see Oldman as Churchill ever again.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Abacus Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo
• Strong Island

Three of these films are available on Netflix so go binge them now! That's how I saw Icarus and Strong Island, both very good, though I really liked Icarus. Might see Last Men in Aleppo tomorrow. Agnes Varda could win for Faces Places. Who do you got?

PREDICTION: Faces Places
ALTERNATE: Icarus
FINAL WORD: Varda's cardboard cutout was the awards seasons VIP.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Edith+Eddie
• Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
• Heroin(e)
• Knife Skills
• Traffic Stop

Haven't seen any of these, but Heroin(e) is on Netflix so I might before the ceremony. Not sure if any of the others are readily available. (ETA: Knife Skills and Heaven is a Traffic Jam are on YouTube).

PREDICTION: Traffic Stop
ALTERNATE: Heroin(e)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Dear Basketball
• Garden Party
• Lou
• Negative Space
• Revolting Rhymes

Anyone know if any of these are available to stream? (ETA: Garden Party is online, Lou is on YouTube, Revolting Rhymes is on Netflix). Anyways, I've heard people like Revolting Rhymes. Dear Basketball has big names attached to it which usually means the win. I certainly don't know.

PREDICTION: Dear Basketball
ALTERNATE: Revolting Rhymes

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• DeKalb Elementary
• The Eleven O’Clock
• My Nephew Emmett
• The Silent Child
• Watu Wote/All of Us

I just saw these today and I'm happy to report there's not a dud among them. It makes it that more difficult to pick a winner though DeKalb Elementary might have a leg up for being (unfortunately) timely. Watu Wote is probably the most emotional one. And there's The Eleven O'Clock which is the one humorous one amongst some heavy drama.

PREDICTION: DeKalb Elementary
ALTERNATE: Watu Wote/All of Us

And so now we wait until tomorrow. My picks for who should win is here.