BAFTA Nominations and Predictions

The BAFTAs are happening in London in just few hours so before that, I wanted to get in my quick thoughts and predictions.

Best Film

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Carol
• The Revenant
• Spotlight

Best British film

• 45 Years
• Amy
• Brooklyn
• The Danish Girl
• Ex Machina
• The Lobster

I'm sure it's happened before, but it's quite uncommon to have no film overlap between Best Film and Best British Film. Does that say more to the strength of American films this year or the weakness of British films? I won't get into that conversation, but it IS telling that the top 4 films in nomination tally are non-British--Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Revenant, Mad Max. Speaking of the latter, even with 7 nominations and a non-American director, it shockingly missed a Best Film nomination.

SHOULD WIN: The Big Short for Best Film, Brooklyn for Best British Film
PREDICTION: The Revenant for Best Film, Brooklyn for Best British Film

Best Director

• Adam McKay, The Big Short
• Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
• Todd Haynes, Carol
• Ridley Scott, The Martian
• Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant

This year seems to have shaped up into an apology tour for deigning to not give Iñárritu the win last year over (IMO more deserving) Richard Linklater's Boyhood despite winning the Oscars, but whatever. Which is to say, he's the most likely front-runner. I would like to think Scott would get not only home votes, but also sympathy votes for missing out on the Oscar nomination. Then again, it's insane to see George Miller miss out here.

SHOULD WIN: Todd Haynes
PREDICTION: Ridley Scott

Best Actor

• Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
• Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
• Matt Damon, The Martian
• Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Best Actress

• Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
• Brie Larson, Room
• Cate Blanchett, Carol
• Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
• Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Actor is a 5/5 match with Oscars and had been quite consistent all awards season long while Actress went 3/5 with Oscars nominating Smith instead of Charlotte Rampling (which was a shock) and opting to put Vikander's Danish Girl role here instead of in supporting while Oscar put her in supporting and picked Jennifer Lawrence to fill her spot. In terms of winners, this could actually get interesting if the British voting body decide to support home-spun talent (Fassbender? Redmayne? Ronan? Vikander?) versus the current prevailing American front-runners (DiCaprio, Ronan).

SHOULD WIN: Michael Fassbender for Actor, Brie Larson for Actress
PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio for Actor, Saoirse Ronan for Actress

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio del Toro, Sicario
• Christian Bale, The Big Short
• Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
• Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
• Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress

• Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
• Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
• Julie Walters, Brooklyn
• Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
• Rooney Mara, Carol

The miss here for Sylvester Stallone (and Creed in general) is an anomaly, but it's even stranger to see Oscar-nominated Tom Hardy not get a notice. Similarly, I would've thought BAFTA would've nominated Helen Mirren, but delightfully they ended up going for the severely unrewarded Julie Walters. Vikander, of course, gets her second nomination of the year and is the likely front-runner while Elba seems to be the smart pick for the guys.

SHOULD WIN: Idris Elba for Supporting Actor, Kate Winslet for Supporting Actress
PREDICTION: Idris Elba for Supporting Actor, Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress

Best Original Screenplay

• Bridge of Spies
• Ex Machina
• The Hateful Eight
• Inside Out
• Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Big Short
• Brooklyn
• Carol
• Room
• Steve Jobs

The easy picks for both would be Spotlight and The Big Short especially since the first film has had very little competition in its category all season and the latter seems to have coalesced as the late-season favorite. The one mild shock is not seeing The Martian's screenplay nominated for adapted but I supposed they didn't fully embrace that film. I'm hoping we see some surprises, but I fully believe we won't.

SHOULD WIN: Inside Out for Original, Room for Adapted
PREDICTION: Spotlight for Original, The Big Short for Adapted

Best Non-English Film

• The Assassin
• Force Majeure
• Theeb
• Timbuktu
• Wild Tales

Best Documentary

• Amy
• Cartel Land
• He Named Me Malala
• Listen to Me Marlon
• Sherpa

Best Animated Film

• Inside Out
• Minions
• Shaun the Sheep the Movie

Amy and Inside Out are locked to win not only because of their season-long momentum, but also their popularity across the pond. The Foreign Fim category is a bit more interesting as awards favorite Son of Saul was ineligible. Theeb is the only one Oscar-nominated this year (and British-helmed) while The Assassin and Timbuktu got some critic notices. Meanwhile Force Majeure and Wild Tales made more noise the previous year's award season.

PREDICTION: Theeb, Amy, and Inside Out

Best Cinematography

• Bridge of Spies
• Carol
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant
• Sicario

Best Editing

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant

Best Production Design

• Bridge of Spies
• Carol
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Costume Design

• Brooklyn
• Carol
• Cinderella
• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Make-up and Hair

• Brooklyn
• Carol
• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

Best Original Music

• Bridge of Spies
• The Hateful Eight
• The Revenant
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound

• Bridge of Spies
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Visual Effects

• Ant-Man
• Ex Machina
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The tech categories is where Mad Max: Fury Road shone getting all of its 7 nominations in these 8 categories (missing just Original Music). If it had gotten more nods above the line, I'd be more confident in predicting a clean sweep but alas I'm predicting a share-the-wealth scenario with no one film getting more than 2.

PREDICTION: The Revenant for Cinematography; Mad Max: Fury Road for Editing, Sound; Bridge of Spies for Production Design; Carol for Costume Design; The Danish Girl for Make-Up and Hair; The Hateful Eight for Original Music; Star Wars: The Force Awakens for Visual Effects

Best Debut by British Writer, Director or Producer

• Alex Garland (director, Ex Machina)
• Debbie Tucker Green (writer/director, Second Coming)
• Naji Abu Nowar (writer/director, Theeb), Rupert Lloyd (producer, Theeb)
• Sean McAllister (director/producer, A Syrian Love Story), Elhum Shakerifar (producer, A Syrian Love Story)
• Stephen Fingleton (writer/director, The Survivalist)

Best British Short Animation

• Edmond
• Manoman
• Prologue

Best British Short Film

• Elephant
• Mining Poems or Odes
• Operator
• Over
• Samuel-613

Rising Star Award

• Bel Powley
• Brie Larson
• Dakota Johnson
• John Boyega
• Taron Egerton

I have no idea about any of the Short categories so my predictions will literally be a blind guess. As for Best Debut, I'm thinking Garland has it in the bag. But the more interesting category is of course the Rising Star Award (which is voted on by the public) as it contains not only a bunch of actors who I know, but also really like. I think it's a likely toss-up between Boyega and Egerton both handsome British young men in populist films.

PREDICTION: Alex Garland for Best Debut, Manoman for Best Animated Short, Samuel-613 for Best Short Film, and John Boyega for Rising Star