Sunday, January 12, 2014

Golden Globes Predictions

Can't wait for tonight's Golden Globes mostly to see Tina Fey and Amy Poehler host again. But I also didn't really realize how up in the air a lot of categories are until I sat down and tried to make predictions, which hopefully means an exciting show. My final predictions are below, but with many, many reservations...

Best Motion Picture, Drama: 12 Years A Slave
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical: American Hustle
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Seems like a somewhat safe bet to pick Cuarón to win Best Director over McQueen, but the latter could still win. The question is would the HFPA split Director and Best Drama as I've predicted here? As for Comedy, American Hustle seems to be more in line with the HFPA, but the more critical pick of Her could also surprise.

Best Actress, Drama: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor, Drama: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I think the Drama categories are set since I don't think the HFPA will disagree with consensus with Blanchett and Ejiofor. But Ejiofor could be slightly vulnerable if the HFPA wanted to honor a bigger name like Hanks or McConaughey. More difficult to predict are the Comedy categories. All of the men are in Best Picture nominees and seem to be playing at a relatively level playing field so they really could go any which way. I'm picking DiCaprio over Dern and Bale because in my head they think he's the bigger star. As for actress, NONE of these ladies have risen to top this season. Convention says it'll be between Adams and Streep since they're the biggest names. I think Streep ekes this one out on name alone.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Would the HFPA really award Lawrence two years in a row? I think they will, even over Nyong'o just because they do love her. But don't underestimate Roberts' star appeal as well. As for Leto, he's been dominating all season but perhaps if the HFPA end up loving either American Hustle or 12 Years a Slave, Cooper or Fassbender could just take it. I don't think they will though.

Best Animated Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: Blue is the Warmest Color
Best Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Score: Gravity
Best Song: "Please Mr. Kennedy," Inside Llewyn Davis

Score and Song are the only ones I'm not 100% certain about. I think most of the films in the Score category can win and only giving the edge to Gravity, because it's such a big film. As for Song, "Let It Go" is the absolutely favorite... for the Oscars. But Oscar-ineligible "Please Mr. Kennedy" has seen strong support throughout the season... and it's very much like the HFPA to reward Timberlake.

With my film predictions out of the way, here comes TV, which is also perplexing me in a few spots...

Best TV Series, Drama: Breaking Bad
Best TV Series, Comedy: Girls

The HFPA's penchant for the newest thing, especially if they involve film stars, may be the downfall for Breaking Bad which for all intents and purpose should and will win. But House of Cards would probably be very, very appealing to the HFPA. As for Comedy, I think they'll pick last year's winner Girls, but they could also go back to their Modern Family love-fest. Anything could happen in this category and I wouldn't be too surprised.

Best Actress, Drama: Kerry Washington, Scandal
Best Actress, Comedy: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Best Actor, Drama: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Actor, Comedy: Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show

Fox seems like a solid prediction here, because again he's a star HFPA would like to honor. And you'd think Cranston would be a slam-dunk gimme as well, but with a category so full of movie stars including Spacey and it's a bit trickier. Louis-Dreyfus is also likely to win after her unexpected lost last year to Dunham AND she's double-nominated this year. But I honestly have NO CLUE who'll win Drama Actress especially with Danes not even nominated. Schilling and Maslany are new, young, and pretty just the way the HFPA likes but Wright is a movie star while Margulies and Washington has been getting so much buzz. I'd sooner predict a 5-way tie than actually pick someone. In this case I just closed my eyes and pointed.

Best Mini-Series or TV Movie: Behind the Candelabra
Best Actress, Miniseries/TV Movie: Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
Best Actor, Miniseries/TV Movie: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Best Supporting Actress: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Best Supporting Actor: Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra

Behind the Candelabra and Douglas are the only two wins I'm 100% confident in making this entire awards show. Moss seems likely to win, but who knows? The supporting categories are even more up in the air. I picked Lowe and Vergara for no apparent reason. We'll see how wrong I am later tonight...

Click here to see my thoughts on the nominations... Film/TV

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