Emmy Nominations and Predictions

Seems like it takes me later and later every year to chime in with my thoughts on Emmy nominations, but oh well! I'm actually oddly excited for this year's ceremony, mostly because of Neil Patrick Harris back as host, but with a couple months removed I've pretty much found my zen in the eventual nominees. Every year there are plenty of snubs that irritate, but I actually think this year there's less outright bad nominations. That's real progress! So my thoughts and predictions...

BEST DRAMA SERIES
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

The drama series category has been such an embarrassment of riches the past few years and this year it's no exception. I can't even be too disappointed that The Good Wife was left out again and that only House of Cards made it in for new shows (I was rooting for The Americans and Orphan Black) which is also a milestone for Netflix. The conventional wisdom is of course last year's winner Homeland to repeat, but competition is tough. Mad Men has won four times prior, Breaking Bad is reaching a cultural zenith, Downton Abbey is still a water-cooler show, and Game of Thrones has never been better. I'm thinking Breaking Bad will finally break through here.

Prediction: Breaking Bad
Alternate: Mad Men
Should Win: Breaking Bad
Should've Been Nominated: The Good Wife, The Americans, Orphan Black

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

I really feel for Jon Hamm. He really should've won by now, but voters seem to always be in love with someone else every year. This year it becomes even more difficult with two new entries coming from the "movie actor slumming it on TV" mold with Oscar winner Spacey being the slight favorite. And there's of course recent winners Lewis and Cranston to contend with, the latter of which is still getting career best reviews for the final season of his show. I'll be rooting for Hamm, but I would be shock if this was the year they finally (and rightly) honor him.

Prediction: Kevin Spacey
Alternate: Bryan Cranston
Should Win: Jon Hamm
Should've Been Nominated: Matthew Rhys, Jonny Lee Miller, Hugh Dancy

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Connie Britton, Nashville
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

This category is an actressexual's dream. Even with the awful Julianna Margulies snub, it's hard to really complain about this line-up, which also goes to show just how competitive this category really is. Last year's champ Danes is probably the slight favorite, but I can honestly see any of them winning it for various reasons. I can't even say who I'm rooting for, because any of their wins would be a happy and well-deserved one. Maybe Moss, because like Hamm, it's crazy she hasn't won an award for that role, but then again she might win in the Miniseries category this year. I don't know! Anyone have a seven-sided die?

Prediction: Claire Danes
Alternate: Elisabeth Moss
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss
Should've Been Nominated: Tatiana Maslany, Julianna Margulies, Emmy Rossum, Keri Russell

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

I'm a bit shocked to see Corey Stoll didn't get to partake in all the love the Emmys has bestowed upon House of Cards especially since he's totally the show's scene stealer, but it's a stacked category regardless. If the Emmys still love Homeland, I think Patinkin is the slight favorite especially if Paul and Banks split votes. Then again, Paul won last year with a more formidable competition from his own show so who knows? And I like Downton Abbey, but Carter's nomination should have probably gone to the aforementioned Stoll or maybe Mads Mikkelsen's Hannibal.

Prediction: Mandy Patinkin
Alternate: Aaron Paul
Should Win: Mandy Patinkin
Should've Been Nominated: Corey Stoll, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Mads Mikkelsen

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Can we just take a moment that both of Captain Mal's ladies from Firefly are Emmy nominated in the same category? Now I'd like to think Baccarin and Hendricks are fighting for the win, but did they really do enough this season to warrant the win? Hendricks especially had better seasons which she inexplicably walked home empty-handed. I'm very happy to see Clarke get her first nomination, especially since she should've already been nominated for the show's first season. And as much as I love Smith, let's just hope her stranglehold on this category loosens up a little.

Prediction: Anna Gunn
Alternate: Maggie Smith
Should Win: Christina Hendricks
Should've Been Nominated: Jennifer Carpenter, Lena Heady, Natalie Dormer

BEST COMEDY SERIES
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Veep

I actually watch all of these shows and like them to various degrees, but I just cannot take this category seriously without Parks and Recreation. I also expected the Emmys to nominate Arrested Development, but I guess only one Netflix show was allowed to be included on the big stage. Glad to see the final season of 30 Rock here and just perhaps this Emmy favorite will end up sweeping, but that would mean it would have to unseat Modern Family from its permanent Emmy perch it's found itself in. But I just feel like this year it might actually happen. Or not, whatever.

Prediction: 30 Rock
Alternate: Modern Family
Should Win: Veep
Should've Been Nominated: Parks and Recreation, New Girl, How I Met Your Mother

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Apparently while every other category gets 6 (and even 7) nominees, this category only has 5, which is insane since I really thought this was the year Adam Scott was going to finally break through. The buzz was also win Jake Johnson to possibly show up here, but weirdly his show seemed to have already outstayed its welcome even in its great sophomore season. Not too surprising to see Bateman here, but again I thought his show would've made more of an impact this year. Last year's winner Cryer was thankfully snubbed, so the Emmys will probably go with the old-standbys of Parsons or Baldwin.

Prediction: Alec Baldwin
Alternate: Jim Parsons
Should Win: Louis C.K.
Should've Been Nominated: Adam Scott, Jake Johnson, Elijah Wood

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Enlighted
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Here's the thing, every single actress here probably deserves to win. Certainly Dunham's nomination this year feels more realized than last year's seemingly knee-jerk "new kid" slot and former multi-Emmy winners Falco, Fey, and Louis-Dreyfus should never, ever be underestimated, but I'm seriously SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY rooting for Poehler here. I admit that quality-wise Louis-Dreyfus beats her just a teeny bit, but Poehler for the win. Always.

Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Alternate: Tina Fey
Should Win: Amy Poehler
Should've Been Nominated: Dakota Johnson, Zooey Deschanel, Marthan Plimpton

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale, Veep
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family

This category the past few years has been the most disappointing for me. We really don't need to nominate every single member of the Modern Family cast every year. Though them leaving out last year's winner Stonestreet feel so arbitrary and somehow confirms how lazy voters are. I'm thrilled to see Driver and Hale sneak in though and I hope one of them wins just to give this category a much-needed twist. As for the actors who SHOULD have been nominated, the list is way too long but NICK OFFERMAN AND JIM RASH. That is all. No, wait, I want to say... fuck the Emmys for consistently ignoring these two hilarious men.

Prediction: Ed O'Neill
Alternate: Ty Burrell
Should Win: Adam Driver
Should've Been Nominated: Jim Rash, Nick Offerman, Lamorne Morris, and so much more

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Jane Krakowsi, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

After missing out on nominations last year, both Krakowski and Lynch are back and for the former, it's the last chance for her to be awarded for the glorious Jenna Maroney. I'm doubtful it'll happen, but weirder things have happened. Like Drama Actress, we have seven nominations which is nice, but also feels a bit like "everybody gets an award!" As much as the Emmys love Modern Family, Vergara or Bowen should be seem as front-runners, but I keep thinking they'd like to award Bialik somehow. I'd be totally fine with that, but I'm on Jenna's side.

Prediction: Mayim Bialik
Alternate: Sofia Vergara
Should Win: Jane Krakowski
Should've Been Nominated: Aubrey Plaza, Kate McKinnon, Jenna Fischer

OTHER CATEGORIES
Best Miniseries or Movie: Behind the Candelabra
Best Actor, Miniseries: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Best Actress, Miniseries: Laura Linney, The Big C: Hereafter
Best Supporting Actor, Miniseries: James Cromwell, American Horror Story: Asylum
Best Supporting Actress, Miniseries: Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals

The key to predicting the Miniseries categories is to pick the biggest names, but when most of the names are big, it's almost a crap shoot, but I would be shocked to see Behind the Candelabra not win in its categories since almost swept the Creative Arts Emmy Awards last week. Speaking of, the Guest Acting categories were also given out last week and I went 1 of 4 in my predictions, which tells you to take any of my predictions above with a grain of salt. Can't wait to tune in tonight!