Surprise nominations, award bodies giving differing results, the Emilia Pérez scandal and, of course, the Los Angeles fires--all of it combined to give us one atypical awards season. Does any film have momentum? Are the acting awards really sewn up? Which film will get the most nomination and could it really be different from Best Picture? Who the heck knows what's winning Original Screenplay? Let's dig in!
Best Picture and Best Director
It's totally going to be PGA winner Anora and DGA winner Sean Baker respectively. Wait, no BAFTA-winner Brady Corbet is getting Director. Oh, but wait SAG Ensemble (and BAFTA-winning) Conclave will probably win. Just kidding Emilia Pérez did get the most nominations, so... that's a thing that happened.
Prediction: My thinking is that the Academy will want to award Sean Baker and thus gives him Director, but will revert to the mean with a Conclave Best Picture win.
If I had a ballot: I would also give the Director win to Sean Baker since I like his movie a lot (and have loved his other films in the past). But for Best Picture, my heart belongs to those two singing lesbian witches. Let's go Wicked!
Best Lead Actress and Actor
For awhile there, Adrien Brody and Demi Moore had this in the bag. And they can so very easily win here still. Both have easy narratives (his a comeback of sorts, hers the popular veteran actress makes good). Predict someone else at your peril. AND YET... Mikey Madison won both the BAFTA and Spirit Awards (over very strong competition) and Timothée Chalamet got the SAG.
Prediction: I'm going with Demi Moore and Adrien Brody. They're not a lock though and so a Mikey/Timmy "upset" wouldn't shock me.
If I had a ballot: There's really no bad winner in Actress (yes, even she who must not be named), but I'd like to see "Oscar winner" next to Demi Moore's name. That's also why I am picking Timothée Chalamet on the men's side. Though if Sebastian Stan had been nominated for A Different Man, my answer would be different.
Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Look, I really like Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña. And they gave award-deserving performances. I don't even mind THAT much (but I do a little) that they are clearly committing category fraud. But to have that AND to sweep ALL the awards? It's just not a good feeling. The only possible crack is whether or not the Saldaña gets (unfairly) punished for the Emilia Pérez brouhaha.
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña is too popular and well-liked for that to happen so she's going to win. Kieran Culkin is locked and loaded as well.
If I had a ballot: I think if Culkin/Saldaña had lost somewhere, I'd be fine voting for them to win here, but my need for some variety has me picking Yura Borisov (a true breakout supporting performance) and Ariana Grande (okay another co-lead but she's hilarious in a movie I loved).
Best Original and Adapted Screenplay
Seems like things have been coalescing for Conclave in Adapted Screenplay so that's definitely the one to beat there even with Nickel Boys getting the WGA. For Original Screenplay, Anora is the slight favorite but will voters think they'd want to award another small film (like BAFTA winner A Real Pain or Cannes winner The Substance)?
Prediction: I'll say Conclave and Anora respectively. But the latter losing here wouldn't surprise me too much, but if it does happen, its Best Picture chance got that much more unsure.
If I had a ballot: Personally, I thought Jesse Eisenberg's script for A Real Pain is truly one of the best original screenplays this year. And with Wicked not nominated for Adapted, my vote for the other category goes to the experimental Nickel Boys.
Best International and Animated Features
Emilia Pérez is the front-runner, but with the scandal it has taken quite a beating to the point that many seem to think I'm Still Here has this sewn up. Though imagine an alternate universe where All We Imagine As Light had been nominated. Was rooting for Kneecap myself. Then there's Animated where it really is a two-horse race between The Wild Robot and Flow. Both films are well-liked and got other nominations. Will the Academy's international bent sway them toward the smaller Latvian film though?
Prediction: I'll finally zag and predict the non-frontrunner I'm Still Here because I do think the scandal really hurt Emilia Pérez. Meanwhile, The Wild Robot will win over Flow.
If I had a ballot: My picks here are the same as my prediction: I'm Still Here and The Wild Robot. Hey, both made me cry.
Best Original Score and Song
This one is so easy, because the Academy totally nominated Challengers for both so that should and will win. Oh, no, they didn't? Well at least they didn't nominate Diane Warren for the millionth time in a row. Oh, they did, huh? Was there at least a catchy tune like last year's runner-up (but true winner) "I'm Just Ken" from Barbie? No? Well, shit.
Prediction: The Brutalist should handily win Score especially without Dune: Part Two or Challengers in the mix. Meanwhile "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez is the likely winner. But with a non-banner year for song nominees, maybe we finally give it to Warren and then stop nominating her for at least five years?
If I had a ballot: I would write-in Challengers for both. Actually, no, I'd write-in "Kiss the Sky" from The Wild Robot in Song. But if I must pick an actual nominee, I'll go with The Brutalist score and... "Like A Bird" from Sing Sing, I guess?
Best Production and Costume Designs
The thought here is that Wicked is the front-runner for both. But fellow CDG/ADG winners Nosferatu and Conclave has kept up the competition all season long and one or both can win especially if some think Wicked will have its chances again next year.
Prediction: Wicked will double up here!
If I had a ballot: Wicked for both as well!
Best Editing, Cinematography and Makeup/Hair
There's the belief that Picture will be won by whoever wins Editing so I guess it's down to Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave. Cinematography is interesting since you'd expect Best Picture nominees The Brutalist or Dune: Part Two would win over the others, but Ed Lachman (Maria) is beloved and has zero Oscars to his name. Is it time? Finally, it's Wicked vs. The Substance for Makeup/Hair in a particularly strong field.
Prediction: Since I think Conclave wins Best Picture, it will win Editing. Meanwhile the Academy will be sentimental and give Cinematography to Lachman for Maria. And in honor of Monstro Elisasue, The Substance gets Makeup/Hair.
If I had a ballot: Conclave for Editing, The Brutalist for Cinematography (that movie was meant for the big screen), and A Different Man for Makeup/Hair.
Best Sound Achievement and Visual Effects
The Wild Robot getting into Sound is exciting, but can Dune: Part Two repeat especially against all the musicals it's nominated against? And in Visual Effects, can Dune: Part Two also repeat especially against a xenomorph and 3 movies (!) with monkeys?
Prediction: I think the Academy will show Dune: Part Two some (repeat) love for both categories after hopefully feeling ashamed for snubbing director Denis Villeneuve again.
If I had a ballot: Honestly, I would also pick Dune: Part Two for both.
Best Documentary and Best Animated Short
You may be wondering why I paired up these two categories. Simple, between the two of them, I've seen just one film (the documentary Sugarcane) so I don't have much to say here other than...
Prediction: I hear No Other Land and Wander to Wonder are the slight consensus picks though I do have my doubts the Academy has the courage to go for the first film. But I wouldn't even know what's the alternative.
If I had a ballot: Well, I would've actually seen all the movies and not vote blindly. So by default, I'll just repeat and say No Other Land and Wander to Wonder.
Best Live Action and Documentary Shorts
My screening of these two categories are barely better than the previous two categories so my commentary will be limited. The key question here is whether or not voters will want to be political or escapist this year.
Prediction: I predict that they'll go escapist and give Netflix a double win with Anuja and The Only Girl in the Orchestra for Live Action and Documentary short respectively.
If I had a ballot: Meanwhile, I'm going political, because why not? A Lien and Incident would be my picks.
Now, some quick tally...
Predictions
Conclave - 3
Anora - 2
The Substance - 2
The Brutalist - 2
Emilia Pérez - 2
Wicked - 2
Dune: Part Two - 2
A Real Pain
I'm Still Here
The Wild Robot
Maria
No Other Land
Wander to Wonder
Anuja
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
And now that I'm looking at this tally, I'm pretty sure I am very wrong. There's spreading the wealth and then there's 6 (!) Best Picture nominees getting exactly 2 wins each while the BP winner gets just 3 awards. That'd certainly be a fitting end to this crazy season.
If I had a ballot
Wicked - 4
Anora - 2
The Brutalist - 2
Dune: Part Two - 2
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
A Real Pain
Nickle Boys
I'm Still Here
No Other Land
The Wild Robot
Sing Sing
Conclave
A Different Man
A Lien
Wander to Wonder
Incident
My own ballot went the "spread the wealth" route as well. Interestingly, I gave all the Best Picture nominees at least one win with the exception of Emilia Pérez which, unlike many people, I actually like. Which just goes to show you the strength of this year's nominees. Even if none of them are Challengers... or last year's also not-nominated All of Us Strangers (nope, not over it).
