Emmy Nominations and Predictions 2016

The Emmys are today and since I revel in procrastinating, here just now are my quick thoughts on the nominations and my accompanying predictions for tonight's award show. In general, they did pretty okay. Definitely lots of people I would have wanted to get nominated weren't, but a few others did. That's the best one can hope for.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mr. Robot

Let's get this out of the way first, last year's Emmy champ Game of Thrones will win. It has the most nominations and they won last year for their weakest season. The two shows I can possibly see toppling it would be the two shows that broke through this year, which would be the buzzy freshman show Mr. Robot and the "should've been nominated a bunch of times already" The Americans. The latter's inclusion pretty much meant I was pretty damn happy nomination morning no matter what happened. I'm already excited about next year though when Downton Abbey *and* Game of Thrones aren't in the running. What happens then?

Prediction: Game of Thrones
Alternate: The Americans
Should Win: The Americans
Should've Been Nominated: Sense8, Orange is the New Black, The Leftovers, Marvel's Jessica Jones

BEST LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA
Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Matthew Rhys, The Americans

With Jon Hamm and Jeff Daniels out from last year, it made room for two of the new best nominations this category has had in awhile with Matthew Rhys finally getting his deserved dues and breakout star Rami Malek also getting honored. This category is actually confounding me in terms of predicting a winner especially since the category has been all Cranston (then Hamm) for the past few year. Chandler is actually the only past Emmy winner while Spacey is the Susan Lucci (outdated reference) of this category with 9 previous nominations and no win.

Prediction: Kevin Spacey
Alternate: Rami Malek
Should Win: Matthew Rhys
Should've Been Nominated: Damian Lewis, Aldis Hodge, Cillian Murphy, Justin Theroux

BEST LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA
Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Keri Russell, The Americans
Robin Wright, House of Cards

SUCH a stacked category, like it is every damn year. This list is actually the same as last year (with last year's breakout Maslany surprisingly getting a repeat nom!) with the exception of Keri Russell replacing Elisabeth Moss. Wait, let me repeat that... KERI RUSSELL IS NOMINATED FOR AN EMMY FOR HER WORK IN THE AMERICANS. She'll probably lose, but goddamn if that isn't just the best new ever. Last year's winner Viola will likely repeat and I can't complain that much since I lover her.

Prediction: Viola Davis
Alternate: Keri Russell
Should Win: Keri Russell
Should've Been Nominated: Shiri Appleby, Carrie Coon, Julianna Margulies, Jurnee Smollett-Bell, Kristen Ritter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Last year's winner Dinklage won for a season where he barely did anything so underestimate him at your peril. With that said, the "surprise" nomination for Harington shows great love for the show and he IS featured heavily in the show's "best" episode of the season so don't be too shocked if his name is called tonight. With that said, this really is the best time for them to honor Banks for his great work not only on this show, but as a tribute to what he did in Breaking Bad.

Prediction: Peter Dinklage
Alternate: Kit Harington
Should Win: Jonathan Banks
Should've Been Nominated: Joshua Jackson, Miguel Angel Silvestre, Martin Wallstrom, David Tennant

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
Constance Zimmer, UnReal

After taking a refreshing breather last year, the TV Academy decided to honor Smith one last nomination for her work in Downton Abbey. Will it translate to an actual win given her strongest competitions, the three Game of Thrones ladies, might split votes? That's actually good news as well for Tierney and Zimmer (both inspired choices for nominations). That said... so damn strange to see both Uzo Aduba and Christine Baranski left out especially for the latter's final season.

Prediction: Lena Heady
Alternate: Maggie Smith
Should Win: Maura Tierney
Should've Been Nominated: Jamie Clayton, Ann Dowd, Calista Flockhart, Alison Wright

BEST COMEDY SERIES
Black-Ish
Master of None
Silicon Valley
Modern Family
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

I do like that slowly and surely, these comedy categories are changing with the times especially with Black-ish and Master of None breaking through. With that said, sure let's nominate Modern Family again I guess. It's not as if there's a whole list of shows they could've picked instead like Broad City, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Jane the Virgin, etc. Last year, I thought Transparent was a lock to win, but Veep won instead. This year, Veep garnered more nominations than any other comedy show by a lot... so obviously that will win.

Prediction: Veep
Alternate: Transparent
Should Win: Black-ish
Should've Been Nominated: Broad City, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Jane the Virgin, Fresh Off the Boat, Shameless

BEST LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY
Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Will Forte, Last Man on Earth
William H. Macy, Shameless
Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

If there's anyone who could beat Tambor (he won't lose regardless), it might just be Anderson. It is the more popular show and it's an easy performance to honor especially if voters think Tambor's been awarded enough. I'm just happy that Ansari broke through (lots of those happening this year) as well as Middleditch. And while this category is less heinous than in year's past, I encourage them to keep thinking outside the box.

Prediction: Jeffrey Tambor
Alternate: Anthony Anderson
Should Win: Aziz Ansari
Should've Been Nominated: Chris Geere, Andy Samberg, Randall Park, Timothy Omundson

BEST LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Veep
Laurie Metcalf, Getting On
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie

As great as this line-up is, I was bound to be disappointed with the exclusion of Rachel Bloom, Gina Rodriquez, Aya Cash and both Broad City ladies. There's just so much damn talent out there begging to be recognized! That said, Louis-Dreyfuss will probably win unless they're sick of awarding her (they are not). There isn't even anyone that would seem to be competition to her unlike last year with both Lisa Kudrow and Amy Poehler delivering career-best work. Perhaps Ross, but that's not a gimme.

Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss
Alternate: Tracee Ellis Ross
Should Win: Tracee Ellis Ross
Should've Been Nominated: Rachel Bloom, Aya Cash, Gina Rodriguez, Ilana Glazer, Abbi Jacobson, Constance Wu

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale, Veep
Matt Walsh, Veep

Most of these are repeat nominees from last year with Adam Driver the only one not cited again and being replaced by Anderson and Walsh. I didn't see his show, but apparently Anderson is terrific while Walsh's inclusion shows the deep love the TV Academy has for Veep. Speaking of, last year's champ Hale is your likely winner, but I'm rooting hard for Braugher to finally get his comedy Emmy.

Prediction: Tony Hale
Alternate: Louie Anderson
Should Win: Andre Braugher
Should've Been Nominated: Jamie Camil, Noah Galvin, Andrew Rannells, Cameron Monaghan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY
Niecy Nash, Getting On
Allison Janney, Mom
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Judith Light, Transparent
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Last year, the TV Academy gave this category 8 slots so this year they've trimmed it down to just six which meant a few perennials were left out like Mayim Bialik, Julie Bowen, and sadly Jane Krakowski. That said, Judith Light is a bit of a surprise inclusion this year and might just fight for the win against last year's champ Janney. The only other person I can see possibly winning would be Chlumsky if Veep suddenly sweeps.

Prediction: Allison Janney
Alternate: Judith Light
Should Win: Kate McKinnon
Should've Been Nominated: Donna Lynne Champlin, Yael Groblas, Cecily Strong, Jane Krakowski

They've already given out the Guest Acting Awards last weekend at the Creative Arts Awards. The winners are below:
BEST GUEST ACTOR, DRAMA: Hank Azaria, Ray Donovan
BEST GUEST ACTRESS, DRAMA: Margo Martindale, The Americans
BEST GUEST ACTOR, COMEDY: Peter Scolari, Girls
BEST GUEST ACTRESS, COMEDY: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live

What an interesting list of winners. No one predicted Azaria and Martindale barely broke a sweat garnering her second win for this role. Scolari meanwhile was a late addition to the category and still won. And of course this is Poehler's FIRST Emmy win. I'm happy for her, but she also deserved A LOT better than sharing an Emmy win for a guest stint on SNL that won't be televised.

Finally, for completeness sake, here are my predictions for the Limited Series/Movie categories:

BEST TV LIMITED SERIES: The People v. OJ Simpson
BEST TV MOVIE: All The Way
BEST ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE: Courtney B. Vance
BEST ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE: Sarah Paulson
BEST SUPP. ACTOR, LIMIT/MOVIE: Hugh Laurie
BEST SUPP. ACTRESS, LIMIT/MOVIE: Jean Smart