Guild Awards Recap

The deadline for Oscar voters to submit their picks is later today so I thought it was the perfect time to offer up my belated thoughts on the guild results from the past couple of months. While critics, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs are all well and good, it's the guilds that really speak to the industry support for films and performances. The fact that their winners are announced during the sweet spot of the Oscar voting period make them all the more influential. First stop, the producers...

Producers Guild Awards Winners

Motion Picture: Birdman
Animated Motion Picture: The LEGO Movie
Documentary Motion Picture: Life Itself
Drama Television: Breaking Bad
Comedy Television: Orange is the New Black
Long Form Television: Fargo

I'm including the TV winners for completeness sake, but I love all three shows so neither here nor there. The LEGO Movie has been dominant all season long so its exclusion at the Oscars really opens up that category while Life Itself was also left out giving a clear path to victory for Citizenfour. Birdman winning here though was the first signal that Boyhood's Cinderella award season trajectory was going to be a bit more complicated than expected. And then the actors chimed in with their favorite picks...

Screen Actors Guild Awards Winners

Best Ensemble, Motion Picture: Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Ensemble, TV Drama: Downton Abbey
Best Ensemble, TV Comedy: Orange is the New Black
Best Actress, TV Drama: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Best Actress, TV Comedy: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
Best Actor, TV Drama: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Best Actor, TV Comedy: William H. Macy, Shameless
Best Actress, Miniseries: Frances McDorman, Olive Kitteridge
Best Actor, Miniseries: Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart

Not much to say about TV only to say that I was thrilled to see Orange if the New Black winning ensemble just to see its fantastic and diverse cast of mostly women take the stage. In the film side, however, the winners here solidified their front-runner status for an eventual win especially Moore, Arquette, and Simmons who had dominated all season long. The tricky result was Redmayne winning Actor over Keaton giving him the trio of Globes-BAFTA-SAG that seems unstoppable and yet Keaton didn't go home empty-handed either winning as part of the winning ensemble of Birdman, aka the top prize of the night. If anything, Birdman's triumph here just made its Best Picture case stronger and why wouldn't Keaton also see that love in the end?

A coupleof smaller guild awards were given out after this as Boyhood and Grand Budapest Hotel won the top awards at the ACE Eddie Awards (editing) while Birdman, Grand Budapest Hotel, and Guardians of the Galaxy won the top awards from the ADG for best production design. If these wins says anything, it's that maybe Grand Budapest Hotel will be the film to look out for not only in the technical awards but also in the bigger awards if people are looking for a viable alternate to Boyhood/Birdman. Of course the big kahuna of guild awards was next...

Directors Guild Awards Winners

Feature Film: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Documentary Feature: Laura Poitras, Citizenfour
TV Drama Series: Lesli Linka Glatter, Homeland
TV Comedy Series: Jill Soloway, Transparent
TV Movie/Miniseries: Lisa Cholodenko, Olive Kitteridge

With Iñárritu's win, Birdman suddenly went from "possible spoiler" to "frontrunner" as many expected Richard Linklater to win for Boyhood here. Even now people are STILL predicting Linklater to prevail at the Oscars, but this win here clearly shows where the wind is blowing and Birdman has the momentum. All of that is well and good, by the way, but can we also just take a moment to appreciate that ALL of the other top directing winners were women? That was a really happy development. Finally, we get to the writers...

Writers Guild Awards Winners

Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Adapted Screenplay: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Documentary: Brian Knappenberger, The Internet's Own Boy
Drama Series: Nic Pizzolatto, True Detective
Comedy Series: Louis CK, Louie
New Series: Nic Pizzolatto, True Detective
Comedy Episode: "The Last Call," Robert & Michelle King (The Good Wife)
Drama Episode: "So Did the Fat Lady," Louis C.K. (Louie)

Winners were announced just this past weekend and though the film nominees differ from the Oscars (due to various ineligible films and Oscar snubs), they're still of note. Grand Budapest was always going to be the winner in its category, but it will have to go against Birdman (WGA ineligible) at the Oscars. Imitation Game is perhaps slightly more vulnerable either from Whiplash (which was nominated in Original by the WGA) or Theory of Everything (not eligible). With regards to the latter though I had wish those Oscar snubbed-films could've won (Gone Girl, Wild, Guardians of the Galaxy), but alas. Not much to comment regarding the TV winners only to say YAY for The Good Wife!

All in all, Birdman is clearly running ahead with big wins from SAG, PGA, DGA as well as smaller guilds while its biggest competition is not Boyhood, but Grand Budapest Hotel. I'm hoping many people remember the early and effusive love Boyhood received in its debut though, but regardless the Picture/Director categories will come down to the wire. Acting is less unpredictable, but at least Lead Actor is also still up for grabs as are the Screenplay categories making this one of the more exciting Oscars in terms of predicting winners. Less than a week away.

Directors Guild Nominations

Convention says that it's nearly impossible to win the Oscars Best Picture without being nominated by the Directors Guild and thus the awards race usually narrows down considerably when the guild announces its picks, which they did this morning. Let's see what they are...

The DGA nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Feature Film for 2014 are:

• Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
• Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
• Richard Linklater, Boyhood
• Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

It's a no-brainer that Linklater and Iñárritu made the shortlist and while Anderson isn't usually to their taste (this is shockingly his first DGA nomination after all), his film clearly has wide industry support. Eastwood's nod is surprising, but he is a well-known veteran and won the NBR award last month. The real head-scratcher here is Tyldum whose first major citation all awards season long for directing is this nomination by the guild. Better late than never, I guess!

The directors who probably just missed the list include Golden Globes and BFCA nominees Ava DuVernay and David Fincher, BAFTA nominees Damien Chazelle and James Marsh as well as Angelina Jolie and Dan Gilroy. It's worth noting that it's not common for the DGA and Oscars directing lineup to match perfectly so there's definitely still a chance for someone to sneak in to hopefully replace Eastwood and Tyldum. Regardless, the front-runner for the award here (and at the Oscars) is Linklater and if he did win, he would be the 8th straight first-time DGA winner (a win for Anderson or Tyldum would also keep this cool streak alive). Iñárritu would be his biggest challenger though I would think if Selma's DuVernay had been nominated, she could've really won. I'm lighting a candle for that film's shoddy showing at the guilds.

Writers Guild Nominations

Earlier today the Writers Guild announced their picks for best screenplays of the year albeit with a handful of Oscar-favorites ineligible as per usual. Complain all you want, but at least this gives those without any Oscar chances a moment to shine. This year that looks to be the pleasant inclusion of Guardians of the Galaxy.

Adapted Screenplay

• American Sniper
• Gone Girl
• Guardians of the Galaxy
• The Imitation Game
• Wild

Though it looks to be Gone Girl vs. The Imitation Game for the Oscars, the others are fighting with other contenders such as the ineligible screenplay for Theory of Everything, the NBR-winning screenplay of Inherent Vice, the BFCA nominated screenplay of Unbroken, and oh yeah the "adapted" screenplay of Whiplash which was nominated in the Original category today, but is deemed Adapted for the Oscars.

Original Screenplay

• Boyhood
• Foxcatcher
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Nightcrawler
• Whiplash

This lineup seems quite Oscar-y and yet there are many more ineligible films that could take a spot or two such as Birdman and Selma as well as Mr. Turner and the NBR-winning screenplay of The LEGO Movie. As I said above, Whiplash won't be in contention here so it opens up a spot, but it's just one spot for a few films. The Grand Budapest Hotel screenplay has been the critical favorite with Birdman close behind so they might the ones to beat in the end.

Documentary Screenplay

• Finding Vivian Maier
• The Internet’s Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz
• Last Days in Vietnam
• Red Army

Unfortunately I haven't seen any of these documentaries, but congrats on their nominations!

Producers Guild Nominations

Ten films were chosen yesterday by the Producers Guild Awards which is somewhat predictive of what the Academy would do, but not always. Really it's all about seeing what films are getting those consensus votes at this time of year.

Producer of the Year Award in Films

• American Sniper
• Birdman
• Boyhood
• Gone Girl
• Foxcatcher
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Nightcrawler
• The Theory of Everything
• Whiplash

The big miss here is Selma, the only film nominated for a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award to not get cited here. Apparently the studio didn't send out screeners to the guild, but they did send screeners out to the Academy so in terms of Oscars they might still be good, but it's still a big snub. Another late-year release American Sniper did get screeners out to the guild and reaped the benefits and now looking even likelier to crash the Oscar party so to speak. The other misses include Unbroken and Into the Woods though at least their recent favorable box office results should ameliorate any sting. In fact, for a guild that awards producers (i.e. the money people) it's quite interesting to see them not highlight any of the top 13 live-action box office earners this year including quality blockbuster fare like Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain America: Winter Soldier, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, and Interstellar.

Producer of the Year Award in Animated Films

• Big Hero 6
• The Book of Life
• The Boxtrolls
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• The Lego Movie

Meanwhile in animation they did honor the top three highest-grossing films this year with the top earner The Lego Movie as the heavy favorite this Pixar-less year. This line-up looks like the eventual Oscar shortlist give or take a non-English animated film like The Tale of Princess Kaguya, but with this exact same line-up showing up at the Golden Globes and the BFCA, it's hard to bet on that possibility.

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Meant to write about the SAG nominations much, much earlier today but didn't have the time. So in an effort to be complete, here's a few quick thoughts on the nominees even though all everyone will be talking about tomorrow are the Golden Globe nominees. Oh well!

BEST ENSEMBLE

• Birdman
• Boyhood
• Grand Budapest Hotel
• Imitation Game
• Theory of Everything

Both Boyhood and Birdman have been a favorite in the awards circuit so far and it's pretty much a two-movie race for now and this guild did little to rock the boat. Birdman does lead with 4 nominations, but Boyhood is right behind it at 3 including this ensemble nod consisting of only its four leads. Thrilled to see Grand Budapest show up here and Imitation Game makes sense. I did love Theory of Everything, but I really thought it would've been replaced by Gone Girl, Selma, or Into the Woods. Those latter two films though were hurt by their late release. But whither Gone Girl? It's lack of awards momentum so far has left me confused.

BEST ACTRESS

• Jennifer Aniston, Cake
• Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore, Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Jennifer what now? I mean in the back of my head she was going to get a Golden Globe nod, but that's it so this surprise nomination is just that. Can she go all the way or is the TV-dominated SAG just voting for their old pal Rachel Green? The rest seem set for Oscars. It'd made sense for critics favorite (so far) Marion Cotillard to get left off here. Would've loved to have seen someone like Gugu Mbatha-Raw or Jenny Slate though.

BEST ACTOR

• Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
• Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
• Michael Keaton, Birdman
• Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything

Even before "awards season" began this category has always been about Keaton vs. Redmayne vs. Cumberbatch so it makes sense to see them here and they'll most likely take this fight to the Oscars as well. They'll most likely go up against not nominated David Oyelowo and perhaps Timothy Spall. If so, Keaton would be the lone American... food for thought. Is it just me or is Carell and his film slowly fading from people's mindset? I didn't particularly enjoy the film so I'm okay with that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
• Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone, Birdman
• Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
• Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Even with Watts surprise nomination, I thought this was pretty much expected, but I had expected Watts to have been nominated for her work in Birdman NOT St. Vincent. How she vaulted past Jessica Chastain for her work in either Interstellar or A Most Violent Year is pretty crazy. I was also banking on a Tilda Swinton or Carrie Coon nod, but it's not to be. With that said, I love all of these actresses so I'm all good.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Robert Duvall, The Judge
• Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
• Edward Norton, Birdman
• Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

So enough people actually saw The Judge and liked it enough to nominate Duvall? I'll take their word for it. Then again the next best choice was who? Andy Serkis for Apes? Josh Brolin for Inherent Vice? Tyler Perry for Gone Girl? For all the talk about the Best Actress field being "weak," I think this category could use some more options.

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE, FILM

• Fury
• Get On Up
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
• Unbroken
• X-Men: Days of Future Past

I had been banking a nomination for those two awesome Marvel films this year, Captain America and Guardians of the Galaxy, but alas. Get On Up though? Really? Again, I'll take their word on it.

With Breaking Bad not eligible this year and the nominating committee finally recognizing streaming networks, there were a lot of new shows and faces. It's not perfect, but it's not bad overall.

BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE

• Big Bang Theory
• Brooklyn Nine-Nine
• Modern Family
• Orange is the New Black
• Veep

I'm really, really happy to see Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Orange is the New Black, and Veep on this list. When the first two weren't nominated last year for their outstanding freshman seasons I was livid so nice to see them make right. I get that Big Bang and Modern Family are two of the biggest comedies on TV right now, but man we get it. How about some love for Parks & Recreation and Shameless? Maybe next year? I won't hold my breath.

BEST DRAMA ENSEMBLE

• Boardwalk Empire
• Downton Abbey
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland
• House of Cards

I bet all of these shows are relieved to not have to compete with Breaking Bad this year. I'm hoping this means Game of Thrones win, because that cast is just ridiculous. I have nothing negative to say about the other nominees, but it is hard to take this list seriously with such obvious snubs as The Good Wife, Mad Men, Masters of Sex, The Americans... I can go on and on.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

• Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
• Julie Bowen, Modern Family
• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep
• Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation

If we must nominate someone from Modern Family, can we at least nominate Sofia Vergara? She, Falco, and Louis Dreyfus were nominated last year, so whatever (though yay Veep). I am glad to see Poehler back in the mix after missing out last year and MY GIRL EMMY-WINNING UZO ADUBA! YES! To be perfectly frank, I would've been 100% okay if all five nominations went to Orange is the New Black here.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Louis C.K., Louie
• William H. Macy, Shameless
• Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory
• Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

God, this is the worst category. Two actors from Modern Family? Parsons... again? I don't doubt their talents, but the lack of new nominees here year in, year out bugs me. Where's Adam Scott, Andre Braugher, Adam Driver, Chris Messina, Nick Offerman, Andy Samberg, and on and on and on.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

• Claire Danes, Homeland
• Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder
• Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
• Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
• Robin Wright, Homeland

If they had to add another nominee to make sure to honor Maslany then I'm all for it. She's now won 2 Critics Choice Awards and been nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG award. Fuck you, Emmys. But hey, real talk now... Maggie Smith? Doesn't care if she wins or gets nominated. So stop it. Keri Russell, Lizzy Caplan, Elisabeth Moss, and plenty of other actresses would love to take her wasted spot.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

• Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
• Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
• Woody Harrelson, True Detective
• Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

The more distance I get from True Detective, the less positive things I have to say about it. With that said, however, I still think those two guys were pretty great so I guess I'm okay with their double-dipping here and plenty thankful they didn't nominate the show for Ensemble. That said, hey SAG committe Mad Men does still exist you know. Jon Hamm, Matthew Rhys, Matt Czuchry are guys who exist.

BEST ACTRESS, MOVIE/MINISERIES

• Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honourable Woman
• Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge
• Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
• Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

No big surprises here though it's worth to note that the Gyllenhaal siblings have bookend nominations so it's a good awards season for the household! I wish Alison Tolman had been nominated though.

BEST ACTOR, MOVIE/MINISERIES

• Adrien Brody, Houdini
• Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Richard Jenkins, Olive Kitteridge
• Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
• Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo

They do love them some Cumberbatch. Were there any snubs? The only two I can think of is Martin Freeman for either his work in Fargo or Sherlock and Matt Bomer for The Normal Heart.

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE, TV

• 24: Live Another Day
• Boardwalk Emppire
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland
• Sons of Anarchy
• The Walking Dead

I mean sure. What is there to say really? Maybe Agents of SHIELD especially with so many more fight sequences this season, but whatever.

Writers Pick Her, Stories We Tell, and Breaking Bad

The three-film Best Picture race took a bit of a breather over the weekend as the industry, namely the Writers Guild of America, decided to honor a few other films instead. The feature film winners are:

Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Adapted Screenplay: Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Documentary Screenplay: Sarah Polley, Stories We Tell

I was really happy with the wins for Spike Jonze and Sarah Polley with the latter hopefully taking comfort with this win for her inexplicable Oscar snub a few weeks ago. For Jonze, it's an impressive win against all of his fellow Oscar nominees especially against David O. Russell and Eric Singer for their script of Oscar front-runner American Hustle. I'm hopeful the Academy will repeat this win as they've been receptive to quirkier writers in the past (think Charlie Kauffman, Diablo Cody, etc.). In Adapted, Oscar favorite 12 Years a Slave was not eligible so I don't think Captain Phillips will repeat its win. Though it did well enough to beat Oscar nominees The Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight, which surprised me. I had really wanted the latter screenwriters to win especially for the amazing collaborative work they did across three films.

The main television winners are:

Drama Series: Breaking Bad
Comedy Series: Veep
New Series: House of Cards
Episodic Comedy: "Hogcock!" 30 Rock
Episodic Drama: "Confessions," Breaking Bad

As expected, Breaking Bad won Drama Series and also topped the night with the most wins at two awards, picking another award for one of its episodes as well (though I was rooting for The Good Wife to win the latter award). Veep prevailed in the Comedy section beating industry favorite Modern Family among others while House of Cards withstood strong competition from Orange is the New Black, Masters of Sex, and The Americans. 30 Rock picked up a win for one of its episode, though I was rooting for one of the two Orange is the New Black episodes they nominated or "Leslie and Ben" from Parks and Recreation. For the full list of winners, click here.

Gravity Pulls Ahead After DGA and Historic PGA Wins

Though Gravity walked home empty-handed last weekend at the SAG Awards, it has so far gained a lot of ground by picking up a couple of wins from the PGA and DGA making it the favorite to win Best Picture at this year's Academy Awards.

First, the Producers Guild made history last week by declaring a tie for their top prize, giving it to not only Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity, but also to Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave. The biggest result of this was effectively keeping the Oscar race as tight and competitive as ever especially with rival American Hustle winning the Ensemble award at the SAG Awards. Though people have debated whether or not a tie was actually beneficial for either win, but my thinking is that a win is a win. For Gravity, it legitimizes their film a bit as more than being a sci-fi visual wonder while for 12 Years a Slave, it gives them a much-needed major guild win to hang on to their frontrunner status they acquired early on. The rest of the winners are below...

Motion Picture: Gravity and 12 Years a Slave
Animated Motion Picture: Frozen
Documentary Motion Picture: We Steal Secrets 
Drama Television: Breaking Bad
Comedy Television: Modern Family
Long Form Television: Behind the Candelabra
Non-Fiction Television: Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown
Live Entertainment and Talk Television: The Colbert Report
Competition Television: The Voice
Sports Program: SportsCenter
Children's Program: Sesame Street
Digital Series: Wired: What's Inside
Milestone Award: Bob Iger
David O. Selznick Achievement Award: Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli
Norman Lear Achievement Award: Chuck Lorre
Vanguard Award: Peter Jackson, Joe Letteri and Weta Digital
Stanley Kramer Award: Fruitvale Station
Visionary Award: Chris Meledandri

With the race so close, everyone was seemingly looking to the DGA for some clarity, except that Cuarón was already seen as the heavy favorite and indeed he did win becoming the seventh straight first-time winner for the guild. With his awards season domination including his win last night, it would seem he's locked to win the Oscars and convention says if he won then Gravity would win Best Picture. Many, however, are predicting a split year with Cuarón winning Director and 12 Years a Slave winning Picture. It's possible, but history doesn't really support that scenario. At this point, it might not be until we hear who won Best Editing during the Oscar ceremony to figure out how the top two categories would go. Pretty exciting! The other DGA winners are below:

Feature Film: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Documentary Feature: Jehane Noujaim, The Square
TV Drama Series: Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad
TV Comedy Series: Beth McCarthy-Miller, 30 Rock
TV Movie/Miniseries: Steven Soderbergh, Behind the Candelabra
Reality Programs: Neil P. DeGroot, 72 Hours
Variety Program: Don Roy King, Saturday Night Live
Variety Special: Glenn Weiss, 67th Tony Awards
Children's Programs: Amy Schatz, An Apology to Elephants
Robert B. Aldrich Award: Steven Soderbergh
Frank Capra Achievement Award: Lee Blaine
Franklin J. Schaffner Achievement Award: Vincent DeDario
Diversity Award: Shonda Rhimes & Betsy Beers

In other news, Breaking Bad, Frozen, and Behind the Candelabra continued their own award season domination picking up awards from both guilds and for Frozen, it solidified its frontrunner status for the Oscars. The series finale of 30 Rock won a DGA alongside the series finale of Breaking Bad. None of the documentaries nominated for the PGA were Oscar-nominated, but Oscar-nominee The Square picks up momentum with its DGA win.

Screen Actors Guild Loves American Hustle & Breaking Bad

As expected, American Hustle picked up Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Award last night keeping it as a favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars despite losing in the individual acting categories. All of the BFCA acting winners repeated their wins with the SAG solidifying their frontrunner status, which bodes especially well for Matthew McConaughey and Lupita Nyong'o whose facing stiff competition in their categories. 

Best Ensemble: American Hustle
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Breaking Bad and Modern Family came out on top, both winning Ensemble and Actor, which means for two years in a row, Bryan Cranston walked home with two awards (last year in TV Actor and as part of Argo's ensemble). It also means Modern Family has won the Ensemble award for four straight years, which frankly is ridiculous. Meanwhile, Michael Douglas' win completes his awards sweep for his role as Liberace. And as much as I love them, Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren's wins seem so thoughtless especially considering the competition. In Mirren's defense, she at least had the decency to call out the rightful winner in her category who was Elisabeth Moss.

Best Ensemble, Drama: Breaking Bad
Best Ensemble, Comedy: Modern Family
Best Actress, Drama: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Best Actress, Comedy: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Best Actor, Drama: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Actor, Comedy: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Best Actress, Miniseries: Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Best Actor, Miniseries: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra

I actually didn't watch much of the ceremony, catching only the tail end right around the Life Achievement presentation for the legendary Rita Moreno. I mean why did they hold this year's ceremony on a Saturday? The In Memoriam segment this year seemed more gut-wrenching than in previous years. In terms of Oscars, this win obviously puts American Hustle on top, but Nyong'o's win over Jennifer Lawrence is worth a mention. And then there's Dallas Buyers Club, which was the only film this year to pick up two awards. Coupled with a surprise Best Ensemble nomination here and a Best Editing nomination at the Oscars and is everyone underestimating this film?

Directors Guild Nominations

And then there were five. With the announcement earlier today of the five directors nominated by the Directors Guild of America, the field just got that much smaller at least when it comes to predicting which film will win Best Picture at this year's Academy Awards. Of course these nominations also offer a good preview of which directors might get nominated for an Oscar, but not always as we saw last year with only two DGA-nominated directors making the Oscar shortlist.

The DGA nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Feature Film for 2013 are:

• Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
• Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell, American Hustle
• Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

The trifecta of Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, and American Hustle just solidified their front-runner status with the latter film getting notices in all of the main guild organizations showing wide support and true momentum. But I will be truly shocked if the winner isn't Cuarón or McQueen as they've pretty much dominated the season so far. If they do end up winning, then it would be the 7th straight year of a first-time winner. In fact, this streak will hold true if any of the nominees win other than Scorsese, who got his 12th DGA nod today.

NBR winner Spike Jonze, Golden Globe nominee Alexander Payne, and previous DGA champs Woody Allen and Joel & Ethan Coen found themselves looking from the outside, but I think at least one of them will replace someone on the road to the Oscars. I was especially rooting for Jonze and the Coen brothers, the latter of which have gotten way less love for their film so far this season.

Writers Guild Nominations

Another day, another guild announcement as the Writers Guild chime in with their pick. Like every year, a few of the frontrunner films are ineligible, which means there's a good chance a more than a few of the films nominated here won't translate for the Oscars.

Adapted Screenplay

• August: Osage County
• Before Midnight
• Captain Phillips
• Lone Survivor
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Original Screenplay

• American Hustle
• Blue Jasmine
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Her
• Nebraska

Documentary Screenplay

• Dirty Wars
• Herblock - The Black & The White
• No Place on Earth
• Stories We Tell
• We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks

In Adapted, BFCA and Golden Globe nominees 12 Years a Slave and Philomena were deemed not eligible, which gave room for the surprise inclusion of Lone Survivor. The other films were more or less expected as they've been cited elsewhere with Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight possibly fighting for the win. I really like Wall Street, but I have to admit to rooting for the writing team of Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater here if only so they can be duly rewarded for their work for the past three films.

The biggest shock in Original Screenplay is the absence of the Coen brother's NBR-winning screenplay for Inside Llewyn Davis. After all the critical love, the film is suddenly on life support after missing out on the recent guild awards. This left room for Dallas Buyers Club to swoop in and along with fellow nominee American Hustle, have hit all of the guilds so far. The overwhelming critic's favorite is Spike Jonze's Her, but underestimate Woody Allen here, receiving his 21st nod, at your peril.

Finally, quick shout out to Sarah Polley who was nominated for her documentary Stories We Tell. I really loved it and hope she wins.

Producers Guild Nominations

The Producers Guild released their nominations today and they barely rocked the boat. In fact they pretty much picked all of the films that's been cited so far this awards season with just the one notable snub.

Producer of the Year Award in Films

• American Hustle
• Blue Jasmine
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Nebraska
• Saving Mr. Banks
• 12 Years a Slave
• The Wolf of Wall Street

The snub would be the Coen brothers Inside Llewyn Davis. It's the only BFCA Best Picture nominee to miss out here since the rest of its fellow nominees made it in. I had always thought the film was one of the frontrunners, but missing out here and getting no love from the actors guild show real vulnerabilities. I would think other films would have been more prone to being ignored such as Dallas Buyers Club, Saving Mr. Banks, or Captain Phillips. In any case, Blue Jasmine is the film that replaced Inside Llewyn Davis, but a Woody Allen film being cited by an industry guild is hardly a game-changer. I liked the film, but I wished this group found room for more smaller films that needed real boosts like Before Midnight or Short Term 12 or perhaps something like The Heat. In any case, like most of awards season, it's going to come down between the two front-runners, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. Winner will be the heavy favorite for the Oscars.

Producer of the Year Award in Animated Films

• The Croods
• Despicable Me 2
• Epic
• Frozen
• Monsters University

Epic? Really? That's a pretty random choice considering it hasn't popped up anywhere else, but the rest were pretty much expected with the lone snub coming in the form of Miyazaki's last film The Wind Rises. I'm just going to assume it was ineligible somehow. With its absence though, this is Frozen's award to lose.

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Busy day meant I'm only just writing my thoughts down on this morning's SAG nominations even though just a few hours from now everyone will be talking about the nominations for the Golden Globes. That's when you know you're fully entrenched in awards season where there's a different accolade every day to keep track of! In any case, this is one of the big ones as actors is a huge group of industry folk, but unfortunately it also means their choices tend to be fairly conservative and preferential to veterans. That's why the word I would describe today's nominations would be... eh.

BEST ENSEMBLE

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• August: Osage County
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The Butler

Big sigh of relief from Harvey Weinstein as both August: Osage County and The Butler make it into this shortlist after getting not much love from critics. Of course those two films, with their super starry cast, was tailor-made for this award and should do well in the next couple of months. 12 Years a Slave was the frontrunner and with a leading 4 nominations, it is still the frontrunner. I don't think anyone expected Dallas Buyers Club to be cited here. I was expecting Inside Llewyn Davis or Her and disappointed both came up empty-handed today.

BEST ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

It's super difficult to actually complain about the nominees here, because I love all of these actresses and the two performances I've seen (Blanchett and Bullock) are phenomenal. But it's also the same names everyone has been predicting give or take a possible Amy Adams spoiler. I feel for the actresses in smaller films like Julie Delpy (still my wishful dark horse), Brie Larson, Greta Gerwig, and Adele Exarchopoulos.

BEST ACTOR

• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Forest Whitaker, The Butler

Apparently Robert Redford's absence here is pretty shocking, but with a field THIS strong I'm not too disappointed. If anything, I wish they could've found room instead for Oscar Isaac or Michael B. Jordan. I like Forest Whitaker, but I think this was a wasted nominated for him. Chiwetel Ejiofor in the meantime should be the man to beat if I had it my way.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
• Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
• June Squibb, Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Like the lead category, it's hard to actually find fault with the actors cited, but it'd be great if there was a surprise entry like a Margo Martindale or a Melonie Diaz. Or how about Elizabeth Banks for her work on Catching Fire. That's right I said it. Anyways, I'm happy for Nyong'o though who was quite good and I've got to admit that Winfrey was damn fun to watch in her film. Looking forward to seeing the rest of the performances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Daniel Bruhl, Rush
• James Gandolfini, Enough Said
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

This is the one category that still feels unformed and yet I wouldn't be too shocked if most (or all) of these men are also Oscar-nominated. Bruhl is the most vulnerable probably with Jonah Hill, Bradley Cooper, and Will Forte trying to crack the category. That said, I'm kind of hoping Gandolfini makes it all the way for a posthumous Oscar. It's sentimental for sure, but not undeserved.

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE, FILM

• All Is Lost
• Fast and Furious 6
• Lone Survivor
• Rush
• The Wolverine

Kind of shocked not to see Catching Fire, Thor, or Iron Man 3 here. I mean The Wolverine? All Is Lost? What?! Whatever.

And if you thought the film nominees were unexciting, the TV nominees make the film nominees look bold and fresh. Not to say the nominations are bad, but there was such an explosion of great new shows this year and unfortunately you could barely tell with the following nominations.

BEST DRAMA ENSEMBLE

• Boardwalk Empire
• Breaking Bad
• Downton Abbey
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland

Breaking Bad leads with 4 nominations and it's probably going to win this award and everything else until the Emmys next year for its widely successful final season. Games of Thrones makes a come back after getting snub last year, though in its place is perennial favorite Mad Men, which seems to be losing steam awards-wise of late. As I said, the lack of new shows (Masters of Sex, The Americans, Orphan Black, House of Cards, etc.) sting, but it's also something no one was really expecting anyways.

BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE

• 30 Rock
• Arrested Development
• Big Bang Theory
• Modern Family
• Veep

Last year this group nominated Glee and The Office, so at least there's nothing that insane happening this year, but even with the fresh inclusion of Veep (and comeback nomination for Arrested Development), it still feels old hat. I thought Girls would make it in and don't get me started of their continuing to ignore Parks and Recreation. For my money this year, Orange is the New Black and Brooklyn Nine-Nine were leagues ahead of most of these shows.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

• Claire Danes, Homeland
• Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
• Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
• Kerry Washington, Scandal

ANNA GUNN! God, yes. All the awards to her. But look, I love Maggie Smith and all, but you really don't have to nominate her every single time. It's okay. She's never going to show up any ways. Instead we could've given it to Dockery or Margulies (both nominated last year) or those in new shows like Tatiana Maslany, Robin Wright, Tatiana Maslany, Keri Russell, Tatiana Maslany, Lizzy Caplan, and of course Tatiana Maslany.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

• Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
• Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
• Jeff Daniels, Newsroom
• Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Of course, Bryan Cranston. Duh. Give him the award already. But I'm sad about the exclusion of his co-star Aaron Paul. Love me some Dinklage always and Spacey was a no-brainer for this crowd as as the other two even though I again wish for newer blood like Mandy Patinkin, Matthew Rhys, Andrew Lincoln, etc.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

• Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen, Modern Family
• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Tina Fey, 30 Rock
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep

Well at least Betty White was not nominated again and Julia Louis Dreyfus and Mayim Bialik got well-deserved citations. But how you can have this award without Amy Poehler is just confounding. Also shocked to see Lena Dunham come up empty (she also wasn't nominated last year) as well as to see none of the ladies from Orange is the New Black make the list.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

• Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
• Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Don Cheadle, House of Lies
• Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory

Blah, blah, blah they're all talented and whatever but wow I could probably come up with a list of about a dozen or so actors I'd rather see nominated like Adam Scott, Nick Offerman, Andre Braugher, Adam Driver, Jim Rash, Jake Johnson, etc.

BEST ACTRESS, MINISERIES

• Angela Bassett, Betty & Coretta
• Helena Bonham Carter, Taylor & Burton
• Holly Hunter, Top of the Lake
• Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
• Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Nothing too shocking here, except to say that I'm pretty annoyed that Jessica Lange gets to compete in this category at the Emmys and over in Drama for this award. Also was Emmy winner Laura Linney not eligible? In any case, with those two ladies not in the running, it's a good chance for Moss to pick up the win here. I'm rooting for her!

BEST ACTOR, MINISERIES

• Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
• Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
• Jeremy Irons, The Hollow Crown
• Rob Lowe, Killing Kennedy
• Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Interesting to see Emmy nominated Benedict Cumberbatch to not get nominated here despite being in two Best Ensemble films. But no matter who was nominated, the result will be the exact same as the Emmys with Michael Douglas prevailing as it should be.

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE, TV

• Boardwalk Empire
• Breaking Bad
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland
• The Walking Dead

This is the same nominees as last year except Homeland replaces Sons of Anarchy. You can also tell that this is pretty much the Best Drama category except The Walking Dead replaces Downton Abbey. In other words... zzz.

Editors, Writers Honor Argo, Searching for Sugarman, & Breaking Bad

The Academy Awards is less than a week away and tomorrow is the final deadline for voting. The past few weeks, however, have already shown us where the wind is blowing with Argo dominating industry awards left and right including taking top honors in a couple of big ones which were announced this past weekend.

First up is the ACE Eddie Awards which honors editing in both film and television. The winners are:

Feature Dramatic Film: Argo
Feature Comedic or Musical Film: Silver Linings Playbook
Animated Feature Film: Brave
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
Half-Hour TV Series: Nurse Jackie
One-Hour Commercial TV Series: Breaking Bad
One-Hour Non-Commercial TV Series: The Newsroom
Miniseries or Motion Picture for TV: Hemingway & Gellhorn

Argo continued its hot streak by beating out three of its fellow Oscar nominees to win the drama award which more often than not has gone on to win at the Academy Awards giving the film even more momentum for its now supposedly inevitable Best Picture triumph. Silver Linings Playbook expectantly won its category as it was the only one nominated for an Oscar, but underestimate Harvey Weinstein's film at your peril. It's perhaps the one film that has been doing better than any other film to try to derail the Argo speeding train during this volatile voting period. Searching for Sugar Man, already the Oscar front-runner won here while Pixar's Brave is picking up some late-season steam. Finally, nice to see Breaking Bad win some more industry awards. For a complete list of the ACE Eddie Awards winners, click here.

ACE winners Breaking Bad and Searching for Sugarman join Argo as repeat winners at the Writers Guild Awards which honors screenwriters. The winners are:

Original Screenplay: Argo
Adapted Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Documentary Screenplay: Searching for Sugar Man
Drama Series: Breaking Bad
Comedy Series: Louie
New Series: Girls

The two films that got the most critics wins in their respective categories came out on top here with Argo picking up yet another guild award and Zero Dark Thirty triumphing after all the controversy. With this said, both categories still seem delightfully up-in-the-air for Oscars. Argo is certainly the favorite for Adapted (especially with its more surprising win last week at the USC Scripter), but how do you deny BFCA-winner Tony Kushner for his work in Lincoln? Original Screenplay is even more of a minefield with Zero Dark Thirty, as stated previously, mired in controversy and not facing two of its fellow Oscar nominees and biggest challenges at the WGA Awards namely BFCA/Golden Globe winner Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained and surprise nominee Michael Haneke for Amour. Finally, Lena Dunham picks up another award for her work in Girls! For the complete list of WGA winners, click here.

Finally, if you're like me and want to have some idea how those always tough-to-predict Sound categories might go at the Oscars, then perhaps these results might shed some light though I honestly remain stumped:
- Les Misérables, Brave, and Homeland won at Cinema Audio Society Awards
- Life of Pi, Skyfall, Wreck-It Ralph, and Les Misérables honored at MPSE Golden Reel Awards

Argo Keeps Momentum as Affleck Wins DGA

Argo is going to win Best Picture at this year's Academy Awards... at least if all of this guild love is of any indication. Fresh off from its PGA win and shock SAG Ensemble triumph last weekend, its director Ben Affleck was honored by the Directors Guild with its top award over the weekend. Affleck is the sixth straight first-time winner holding off four previous winners continuing the undeniable momentum of his film through awards season. Of course, Affleck will not be repeating his win here at the Oscars since he wasn't nominated, but his film is another story. In the past ten years, only one film (Crash) has won a Best Picture without its director not winning the DGA Award. Does this mean Lincoln, Life of Pi, or Silver Linings Playbook is out of luck? In this crazy year, one can never be sure, but I wouldn't bet against Argo for the top prize on Oscar night. The only thing that might derail its victory is if voters start thinking that the film has been over-awarded, but that hasn't ever really happened before.

The more interesting question now is who is the frontrunner to win Best Director as the Academy Award with Affleck not in the running? The best bet would be Steven Spielberg, but a surprise win for Ang Lee or even Michael Haneke this year wouldn't even shock me. The rest of the night's winners are listed below:

Feature Film: Ben Affleck, Argo
Documentary Feature: Malik Bendjelloul, Searching for Sugarman
TV Drama Series: Rian Johnson, Breaking Bad
TV Comedy Series: Lena Dunham, Girls
TV Movie/Miniseries: Jay Roach, Game Change
Reality Programs: Brian Smith, Master Chef
Musical Variety: Glenn Weiss, 66th Tony Awards
Daytime Serials: Jill Mitwell, One Life to Live
Children's Programs: Paul Hoen, Let It Shine

Lena Dunham continues to pave new ground by getting this high accolade for her HBO show while Rian Johnson (Looper, Brothers Bloom) was honored for his work in Breaking Bad. Like Affleck, Malik Bendjelloul's win here bodes well for his film's chances at the Academy Awards. It's interesting to note that all three, like Affleck, are first-time winners.

Screen Actors Guild Vote for Argo & Downton Abbey

Lincoln may have walked away with the film with the most wins tonight at the SAG Awards for Actor and Supporting Actor, but it's Ben Affleck's Argo which came out on top unexpectedly winning Best Ensemble putting it firmly in the lead especially after its PGA, Golden Globes, and BFCA wins earlier in the season. Katniss and Catwoman, I mean Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway, solidified their advantage over their fellow Oscar nominees by winning here and each giving gracious and beautiful acceptance speeches to boot.

Best Ensemble: Argo
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Shockingly enough even with the actors giving Alec Baldwin his 8th award and Modern Family still being honored as the Best Comedy Ever, the TV awards actually provided some nice surprises like Bryan Cranston's first ever SAG win (compared to his three Emmy Awards) and Downton Abbey picking up Best Drama Ensemble aka the biggest shock of the night. Phyllis Logan, who looked astonishing all glammed up unlike her character Mrs. Hughes, accepted the award surrounded by her surprised and gleeful co-stars.

Best Ensemble, Drama: Downton Abbey
Best Ensemble, Comedy: Modern Family
Best Actress, Drama: Claire Danes, Homeland
Best Actress, Comedy: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Best Actor, Drama: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Actor, Comedy: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Best Actress, Miniseries: Julianne Moore, Game Change
Best Actor, Miniseries: Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys

The motto of the night though seemed to be to spread the love around, which I endorse, with no one TV show or movie getting more than two wins. 30 Rock got two wins for Tina Fey and Baldwin and as many times as they have already been awarded, it's kind of nice to honor them especially with their show having its final episode this week. Lincoln also got two wins and while Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock to win his third Oscar, his fellow SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones is in a 3-way fight with Golden Globe winner Christoph Waltz and BFCA winner Philip Seymour Hoffman. But the big story moving forward is definitely Argo's win (which also makes Cranston the only double-winner tonight). With how open the Oscar race has been all season, can Argo really go all the way after its most recent big wins especially with its director not nominated for Oscars? People will keep asking this, so buckle up.

Producers Guild Picks Argo

This year has probably been the most wide-open Oscar race in recent years with no real front-runner and more than a handful of films that could legitimately win the big prize. With all of that said, we now turn to the guilds which usually indicate where the industry love is at the moment. It's especially worth nothing that the Producers Guild of America Awards have awarded the last five Academy Award Best Picture winners, more notably during the last three years as they expanded to 10 nominees just as the Academy has done and adopted preferential voting just as the Academy uses.

All of this is to say that it's a very good sign for Ben Affleck's Argo as his film fended off tough competition to take the top prize making his film as the unofficialy front-runner of the moment having won big at the BFCAs and the Golden Globes. If he wins at the DGA (likely) and the film unexpectedly shocks at the SAG Awards (less likely), then his Best Director snub at the Oscars will start to mean less and less. In fact, his snub may have actually helped the film's Best Picture chances. The rest of the PGA winners seem expected with Searching for Sugar Man being the Documentary front-runner all along and the nearly $200 million-grossing Wreck-It Ralph beating presumed front-runners, but little-seen ParaNorman and Frankenweenie.

Here's a list of the PGA winners/award recipients:

Motion Picture: Argo
Animated Motion Picture: Wreck-It Ralph
Documentary Motion Picture: Searching for Sugar Man

Drama Television: Homeland
Comedy Television: Modern Family
Long Form Television: Game Change
Non-Fiction Television: American Masters
Live Entertainment and Talk Television: The Colbert Report
Competition Television: The Amazing Race
Sports Television: Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel
Children's Television: Sesame Street
Web Series: 30 Rock: The Webisodes

Milestone Award: Harvey and Bob Weinstein
David O. Selznick Achievement Award: Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner
Norman Lear Achievement Award: J.J. Abrams
Visionary Award: Russell Simmons
Stanley Kramer Award: Bully

The TV awards seem more stale as usual with 5 of last year's winners also winning here, 6 if you count 30 Rock winning yet again for Web Series. I'm not saying these aren't well-deserved, but I'm a big proponent of also spreading the wealth. And what a couple of days for J.J. Abrams! He was honored with a Lifetime Achievement Award last night a day after news broke out that he would be helming the next Star Wars film.

Directors Guild Nominations

Here's a crazy stat: Only once in the past 10 years has a film won Best Picture without its director not winning the DGA Award previously (Crash directed by Paul Haggis). So the nominated films today should feel real good about their chances for Oscar glory. They will all certainly be nominated for Best Picture, but the competition for the win just got that much smaller.

The DGA nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Feature Film for 2012 are:

• Ben Affleck, Argo
• Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
• Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
• Ang Lee, Life of Pi
• Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

These nominees seem to solidify the season-long frontrunner status of Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and Lincoln which all have done well with both critics and guilds throughout. It also boosts the chances for more divisive films like Les Miserables and Life of Pi showing they, too, had wide support. The snubs were telling. As BFCA nominee David O. Russell and Golden Globe nominee Quentin Tarantino are left on the outside, though underestimate either of their chances for an Oscar nomination at your peril. I also wouldn't count out Paul Thomas Anderson, Benh Zeitlin, and Michael Haneke. The tougher ask though is who among the DGA Five is the likelier to be replaced? Lee? Hooper?

For the win, I think it's between Bigelow and Affleck with the latter being the only first-time nominee and non-winner on the list and the former being the only woman winner ever. It's worth to note that it's been six year since a previous winner has won the award. The last repeat winner was coincidentally this year's nominee Ang Lee, winning his second DGA for Brokeback Mountain. Can Affleck continue the streak of first-time winners? They do seem to like their actor-turn-directors, right?

Writers Guild Nominations

The Writers Guild of America put forth their nominees this year and, like every year, some of the possible Oscar frontrunners are missing due to eligibility rules such as Django Unchained and Les Misérables. With that said, the nominees are...

Original Screenplay

• Flight
• Looper
• The Master
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Zero Dark Thirty

Adapted Screenplay

• Argo
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Perks of Being a Wallflower
• Silver Linings Playbook

Documentary Screenplay

• The Central Park Five
• The Invisible War
• Mea Maxima Culpa
• Searching for Sugar Man
• We Are Legion
• West of Memphis

As I said above, Tarantino's film Django Unchained was ineligible for original screenplay (though it was nominated at the Golden Globes) and I think it might replace one of these nominees for the Oscars. My gut tells me it'll be either Flight or The Master, but perhaps that's wishful thinking since I really, really want National Board of Review winner Looper to make it in and it's really the only film here that's not traditionally "Oscar-y." In any case, Zero Dark Thirty should be seen as the favorite here and at the Oscars. A few of the other films in the conversation that weren't eligible include Take This Waltz, The Impossible, Your Sister's Sister, Middle of Nowhere, Amour, Seven Psychopaths, and Brave.

For Adapted Screenplay, I think Lincoln might be the favorite even though Argo has so far won more critic awards while Silver Linings Playbook won the National Board of Review. All three were nominated for a Golden Globe (alongside Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained). But I'm most happy about the inclusion of Stephen Chbosky's Perks of Being a Wallflower which was adapted from his own novel. Like Looper, I'm afraid it'll get left out come Oscar time to make way for, ineligible, but flashier and more Oscar-buzzy fare like Les Misérables, Beasts of the Southern Wild, or even Anna Karenina. The Deep Blue Sea and a couple of Maggie Smith films, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Quartet, were also ineligible for WGA. I think Cloud Atlas, The Hobbit, and Skyfall were eligible, but alas no love for them here.

Producers Guild Nominations

The only surprising thing about the Producers Guild nominations today was that it came one day earlier than expected. The nominated films themselves, with the exception of a not-even-that-shocking inclusion of James Bond, are the same films that have been Oscar front-runners since the beginning of awards season.

Producer of the Year Award in Films

• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Misérables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty

As I said above, only Skyfall was the odd man out and yet there was always going to be one crowd-pleaser in the mix and this year the honor went to the first billion dollar grossing James Bond film. I wished it would've been The Avengers, while others thought it would've been The Dark Knight Rises. Unfortunately for those films, the other 9 films have dominated the awards season (all of them were nominated by the BFCA and both the National Board of Review and the Hollywood Foreign Press cited 8 of the 9 films). The possibility of these same 9 films to be nominated for Best Picture became that much likelier. The biggest loser here, of course, is The Master, but its fans should note that Oscar rarely goes 100% with the guild. Look at the similarly auteur-driven Tree of Life last year.

Producer of the Year Award in Animated Films

• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• Rise of the Guardians
• Wreck-It Ralph

Like the live-action films above, this list was populated with the same exact films honored elsewhere. In fact, only one animated film not on this list has won a critics award and it was a film that was already Oscar-nominated last year. All of these films were nominated for a BFCA and only ParaNorman, the critical favorite, didn't get a Golden Globe nomination. At this point, I'd be quite shocked to see any of these films left out for the eventual Oscar short list.

Producer of the Year Award in Documentaries

• The Gatekeepers
• The Island President
• The Other Dream Team
• A People Uncounted
• Searching for Sugar Man

Only Searching for Sugar Man and The Gatekeepers are still in the running for Oscar glory and not shockingly they are also the only two films in this list to get any awards attention elsewhere with Sugar Man out in front with the most critics awards, a win from the National Board of Review, and a BFCA nomination. Is it the front-runner then? It's very hard to tell this year with this category, so stay tuned!

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Is it just me or does this year the awards announcement seem to happen on top of one another? Well in any case, all those critic awards are all well and good, but it's the guilds that seem to really reflect where the awards season is going. So this morning when the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nominations were announced, ears were perked. Unfortunately Perks of Being a Wallflower was ignored, but that's a whole other story. Now while getting nominated for a SAG award doesn't automatically translate into an Oscar nomination, getting one doesn't hurt.

Best Ensemble

• Argo
• The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
• Les Misérables
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook

This season's Oscar frontrunner Zero Dark Thirty tumbled a bit today garnering only one nomination for Actress and none for Ensemble, but it's hard to fault the nominations above especially with their sprawling casts. All but Best Exotic Marigold Hotel are surefire bets for Oscar glory so there's no big surprises here and even Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has some British acting royalty that the actors couldn't seem to deny.

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
• Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
• Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
• Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
• Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Chastain and Lawrence was always going to be nominated but Cotillard and Watts have been checking off the right boxes this awards season, first getting BFCA nominations and now SAG ones. It's important to note though that Beasts of the Southern Wild wasn't eligible thus explaining Wallis' absence. Mirren's nomination could be an anomaly (even though she had good notices).

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
• John Hawkes, The Sessions
• Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
• Denzel Washington, Flight

The big "snub" here is Joaquin Phoenix and perhaps they just couldn't identify with his character or access the film. With that said, I think the Oscar line-up will be made up of these men including Phoenix. The only question is who will be left out. Hawkes (too small of a film?) or Cooper (newcomer) might be the odd man out in that case.

Best Supporting Actress

• Sally Field, Lincoln
• Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
• Helen Hunt, The Sessions
• Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
• Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

This category right now feels a little bit unformed, but the enabled the voters to put in a big name in a polarizing role (Kidman) as well as honor a great dame (Smith). In fact, while Smith was honored with FOUR nominations by SAG, two in film and two in TV. Amy Adams not getting in here hurts her chances, but does it matter since this is Field vs. Hathaway all the way?

Best Supporting Actor

• Alan Arkin, Argo
• Javier Bardem, Skyfall
• Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

I really thoughts McConaughey was going to make it in, but alas the actors decided to go with a list of nominees that have all won an Oscar before. Has that ever happened? In any case, they all were also nominated at the BFCA including the now not surprising Bardem for his fun work in Skyfall. Could he really be the first Oscar acting nomination for the James Bond series? Djanjo Unchained's supporting men were all snubbed.

Since the Emmys were held a few months ago, these TV nominations always feel like an afterthought, but at least the nominations this year are slightly better, albeit still mindnumbingly dull, than last year...

Best Ensemble, Drama

• Boardwalk Empire
• Breaking Bad
• Downton Abbey
• Homeland
• Mad Men

Last year, this group ignored Homeland, but seem to be making up for lost time this year giving the show an Ensemble nomination along with noms for its two leads. Downton Abbey also gets its first nomination for Ensemble this year. But to see how unexciting this list is, one just has to compare it to this year's Emmy Awards where the same exact shows (minus Game of Thrones) were nominated.

Best Actress, Drama

• Claire Danes, Homeland
• Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
• Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
• Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

I'm sorry, but American Horror Story can't be a miniseries in one award while a drama series in another. That's just plain rude. The nominees themselves are okay, but what about the Emmy-nommed Anna Gunn, Elisabeth Moss, Christina Hendricks, and Christine Baranski?

Best Actor, Drama

• Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
• Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
• Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
• Jon Hamm, Mad Men
• Damian Lewis, Homeland

I'm not a fan of Daniels and don't watch Boardwalk Empire so I'm slightly side-eying those nominations even if they are worthy. Just can't take this list seriously with the absence of Emmy winner Aaron Paul or his co-star Giancarlo Esposito. And I thought Peter Dinklage should've also gotten in!

Best Ensemble, Comedy

• 30 Rock
• The Big Bang Theory
• Glee
• Modern Family
• Nurse Jackie
• The Office

They decide to nominate six shows and I stillw ant to get rid like almost all of them and replace them with other shows. Glee? Really?! We're still on that? And I know that Carrell's departure has made The Office even MORE of an ensemble show, but NO. How about this year's breakout Girls? Veep? PARKS AND RECREATION? Community? New Girl? This category year in, year out disappoints me.

Best Actress, Comedy

• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Tina Fey, 30 Rock
• Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
• Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
• Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

Glad that Parks and Recreation gets a nod finally, but Betty White again? Whose naked picture does she own? Probably a lot actually. Kind of just surprised not to see Louis-Dreyfus, Dunham, Deschanel, or Bialik nominated.

Best Actor, Comedy

• Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Louis CK, Louie
• Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
• Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

This is actually an okay list especially with the lack of anyone from Two and a Half Men making last year's nominations really dreadful. Still, it would benefit them to think more outside the box. How about Greenfield? Wayans, Jr.? OFFERMAN.

Best Actress, Miniseries

• Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn
• Julianne Moore, Game Change
• Charlotte Rampling, Restless
• Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
• Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias

Kidman gets her second nomination this year, but I think Moore will repeat her Emmy win and win this one as well. Glad that Political Animals is getting some awards season notice. Maybe it's enough for them to uncancel the show? Wishful thinking in my part, I'm sure.

Best Actor, Miniseries

• Kevin Costner, Hatfield & McCoys
• Woody Harrelson, Game Change
• Ed Harris, Game Change
• Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn
• Bill Paxton, Hatfield & McCoys

I've seen a total of none of these performances so I don't know what to tell y'all. This organization certainly didn't feel bad about their tendency to starfuck.

Best Stunt Ensemble, Film

• The Amazing Spider-Man
• The Bourne Legacy
• The Dark Knight Rises
• Les Misérables
• Skyfall

The snub for The Avengers worries me more than it should, but it's interesting to see Les Misérables get in here. If Maggie Smith was in that film, it would've been unstoppable!

Best Stunt Ensemble, TV

• Boardwalk Empire
• Breaking Bad
• Game of Thrones
• Sons of Anarchy
• The Walking Dead

Yeah, sure I guess. Does Downton Abbey not have a stunt ensemble?