It's been a particularly weird awards season... for me. In spite of liking a lot of the nominees this year and several key races being quite in flux still, I've felt far removed to the season as a whole. Yes, I've seen many of the movies and know who generally won the precursors, but the thought of it all gives me a mental shrug rather than excitement. Perhaps it's the deteriorating state of the world subconsciously eating my brain? Anyways, onwards...
Best Picture and Best Director
It's a fight between the heavy frontrunner One Battle After Another (sweeping most key precursors) and the surging people's favorite Sinners (record breaking nomination tally, SAG Ensemble winner) in Picture while DGA winner Paul Thomas Anderson will mostly likely finally get his flowers. But if his film's surge is real, could Ryan Coogler upset?
Prediction: While the Sinners surge IS real, I'm still going to predict both Paul Thomas Anderson and his film One Battle After Another for the win.
If I had a ballot: Thankfully both top Oscar choices in Picture are actually my top two of the nominees so I would be happy for either one and if forced to, I'd pick Sinners. That said, I would also vote for Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director.
Best Lead Actress and Actor
Jessie Buckley is winning. Now that that's out of the way, let's talk Actor. Timothée Chalamet was riding high early on in spite of a seemingly fairly competitive field. But late losses at the BAFTA and SAG (crucially during Oscar voting window) have many thinking he will come up empty again in favor of another hot young actor Michael B. Jordan. Also, no, Chalamet's careless comments about opera and ballet have very little, or no, impact whatsoever.
Prediction: Obviously, Jessie Buckley for Actress. And... Michael B. Jordan for Actor. If Chalamet wins, it'll be a moment though and I'd like to see it. If he doesn't, I fear he might have to wait awhile.
If I had a ballot: Like everyone else, my vote goes to Jessie Buckley (been a fan since Wild Rose). For actor, my write-in pick would've been Dylan O'Brien in Twinless, but out of the actual nominees, you'd think I'd choose another twin-movie, but instead I'm writing in Timothée Chalamet.
Best Supporting Actress and Actor
We've had too many years where a performer would sweep one or both of these awards (last year was particularly galling in this regard). So I'm happy this year feels like a real free-for-all. SAG winner Amy Madigan, BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku and Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor could win. Sean Penn seems to be the slight frontrunner in the other category by surprisingly winning both BAFTA and SAG (with nary a campaign). But don't discount Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård, Critics Choice winner Jacob Elordi and well-liked veterans Benicio Del Toro and Delroy Lindo.
Prediction: I'm going to match the SAG here with my predicting Amy Madigan and Sean Penn, both playing the kind of flashy villain role that's catnip in these categories.
If I had a ballot: I truly love what Madigan did in her movie, but Wunmi Mosaku is the easy choice here. For the men, I'm going with Jacob Elordi whose Frankenstein's Monster is quite revelatory.
Best Original and Adapted Screenplay
You know my awards season vibe is off when I say I don't even know what's happening in this category. After a quick search, I should've guessed it's the two BP favorites as the frontrunners in both. I'd be particularly happy for Ryan Coogler since if his film doesn't win BP, this would garner him his Oscar win!
Prediction: Seems like a no-brainer for One Battle After Another in Adapted Screenplay and Sinners in Original.
If I had a ballot: I already mentioned how both of those films are my top 2 in Picture. And yet, I do love to spread the wealth. My picks would be Hamnet and It Was Just an Accident. No tangible reason other than vibes honestly.
Best International Feature and Documentary Feature
The Academy getting more international is well-evidenced in the number of multiple nominations the International Feature nominees got this year led by 9 nods for Sentimental Values. In fact, 4 of the 5 are Cannes winners with the Palme d'Or going It Was Just An Accident. The Secret Agent nabbed Best Director and Actor there. All three could legitimately win. I wished I had more commentary for Documentary, but I did love the two I saw (The Perfect Neighbor and Come See Me in the Good Light).
Prediction: I think the Brazilian block is strong and will lift The Secret Agent to a win, but Sentimental Values is probably my close alternate because it got all those nominations. For Documentary, I have no idea... probably Mr. Nobody Against Putin?
If I had a ballot: I prefer Sirât over the two frontrunners and liked It Was Just An Accident slightly more even so that'd be my pick. I'd go with Come See Me in the Good Light for Documentary, because I have to support gays always.
Best Animated Feature and Original Song
I put these two categories together because we live in a Kpop Demon Hunters world and we should all count our lucky stars this monocultural hit graced us with its presence this past year. Biggest movie on Netflix ever, Billboards chart topper, Grammy winner, social media viral hit and soon to be golden at the Oscars. Yes, sure Zootopia 2 was actually kinda great too and made gazillion dollars and that song/performance in Sinners was one of my favorite cinematic moments. But there's no doubt.
Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters wins Animated Feature and their song "Golden" wins Original Song.
If I had a ballot: We all need to protect the honmoon even harder now so my prediction is also my ballot picks.
Best Editing and Best Casting
Pairing one of the stronger Picture predictors (Editing) with the newest Oscar category in years (Casting) because well it's yet another One Battle After Another vs. Sinners. Both won ACE and both have starry, expansive casts, with the latter being a slight favorite for Casting since I wonder if people would equate this to an Ensemble prize (and it won SAG Ensemble).
Prediction: Sinners is winning the inaugural Casting trophy while One Battle After Another is going to win Editing. If Sinners does though, it will hint at Picture winner!
If I had a ballot: I'm sticking with One Battle After Another for Editing. However, my ballot goes to The Secret Agent for Casting. Tânia Maria's presence alone makes it an easy pick. She's SO good in the movie.
Best Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hair
We're in the Frankenstein portion of the Oscars! No, but really, Guillermo del Toro did his masterful thing again and I'm still shocked he was left off Best Director. That said, a likely 3-Oscar win wouldn't be too shabby at all.
Prediction: Frankenstein sweeps these three below-the-line categories.
If I had a ballot: Frankenstein would ALSO be my pick for Makeup and Hair and Production Design. But I am picking Sinners for Costumes.
Best Cinematography and Original Score
And we're back to the two top dogs with both Sinners and One Battle After Another as the two favorites in both categories. Precursors say that One Battle edges in Cinematography and Sinners edges in Score. Let's see!
Prediction: No use going differently than what the precursors say.
If I had a ballot: I would put down One Battle After Another for both awards. In fact, I would've easily given the Score trophy to Sinners, but Jonny Greenwood needs his first Academy Award more than 2-time Oscar winner Ludwig Göransson.
Best Visual Effects and Sound
I'm quickly losing steam here, but I bet the Academy will also be very lazy in their choices here. Look for Avatar: Fire and Ash (pleasantly shocked they left this off Picture) and F1 (unfortunately they replaced it with this move) to pick up wins.
Prediction: My excitement is low for both movies, but I don't totally begrudge them on their eventual wins here. These specific crafts (and the people responsible for them) did hard work.
If I had a ballot: The vampire-filled Sinners for Visual Effect and the rave-filled Sirât for Sound for me.
Best Short Films
I've actually since a majority of these (thanks internet and streaming sites)--3 of the Documentary Shorts, 4 of the Animated Shorts, and 3 of the Live Action shorts. Does that give me the edge in prediction. Hell no.
Prediction: A Friend of Dorothy (Live Action), Butterfly (Animated), Armed Only with a Camera (Documentary)
If I had a ballot: A Friend of Dorothy (Live Action), The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Animated), All the Empty Rooms (Documentary)
Now, let's see how it all stacked up...
Predictions
One Battle After Another - 6
Sinners - 4
Frankenstein - 3
KPop Demon Hunters - 2
Hamnet
Weapons
The Secret Agent
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
A Friend of Dorothy
Butterfly
Armed Only with a Camera
It definitely feels right for One Battle and Sinners to get 10 wins total. There's still the question of which one will get the most though.
If I had a ballot
Sinners - 4
One Battle After Another - 4
Frankenstein - 3
Hamnet - 2
It Was Just An Accident - 2
KPop Demon Hunters - 2
Marty Supreme
Come See Me in the Good Light
The Secret Agent
Sirât
A Friend of Dorothy
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
All the Empty Rooms
Not too shocking that my picks still skewed towards the two frontrunners but with a little more wealth spreading as is my wont.
